Live data from Hacker News

The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

nytimes.com

141–150 of 247 posts

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#141
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you familiar with potlatch society in the old Pacific Northwest? With wealth readily available, the "big men" of a tribe (roughly chiefs, but not hereditary) competed to see how much they could give away to their neighbors and rivals; all you had to do to eat well, or make it through a bad winter, was to admit that your neighbors were led by a great and glorious chief. This system didn't work very well at the tim…

Everyone could have his own small farm, fab and robots. No need to rely on "big men" competing for karma points from the peasants.

Everything old is new again.

It's going to be some damn thing when everyone in the South takes your idea and they build up their civilization around free robotic labor, and then when we hit AI sentience and start ensuring the civil rights of robots the entire South has to be burned to the ground again to free the sentient robots from their owners.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#142

I think we are destined for a future of political and social instability in the world if we continue to define labor and its compensation as we do now. We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required. The resentment of the winners (capital owners) by the losers (jobless masses) may lead to great upheaval, to be harnessed by willing politicians of short-sighte…

"We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required" Yes we do. The industrial revolution had far greater impact on labour than any of this mysterious AI will ever have. The first 'machines' powered by coal etc. instantly 'unemployed' hundreds of people per unit. Go ahead and look at the productivity/capita charts for the early 19th century - UK citizens were mu…

>Unemployment went down, wages went up.

The first is true, the second is resoundingly false. The result was entire families, including children, working 16 hour days 6 days a week and barely earning enough to feed themselves. I'm not sure what happened in England to later adjust, but in the USA we adopted the New Deal which forced employers to instead pay 1 person working 40 hours a week such an exorbitant wage that they could raise an entire family on it comfortably. That was close to an order of magnitude increase in labor cost.

The low wages factory owners paid invented the need to prevent adolescents from starting families. Too many families were literally starving to death because they didn't have enough, even with multiple income streams in the household, to feed another mouth. This was why lower class housing started being built with bedrooms that separated children and adults, to hide sex from kids. Previously, everyone slept, and screwed, in a big common room, sex was just a fact of life. Due to the danger sex suddenly posed (previously the adolescent would just go get a job as an apprentice or work on a farm or similar and earn enough to support themselves and their children) both religious and medical 'science' of the time started decrying the evils of sex. They re-interpreted scripture to be as anti-sex as possible, for the first time ever claiming the story of Onan was an admonition against masturbation, for instance, while the doctors swore that masturbation would make you blind, insane, and eventually kill you. Many lower class families traded their children with other families because they believed they would not be able to beat their own children savagely enough to discipline them properly and they would be lost to their 'base animal urges.'

And if anyone said they deserved higher pay, they would be denigrated and told 'the machines do all the work.'

And, of course, alongside the social adjustments that were made, the basic approach of centralizing production to ease distribution came with its own drawbacks. Catering to niche markets was prohibitively expensive. Personalization of customization simply couldn't be done as a matter of course. All craftsmanship and artistry was removed. Certainly there are cases where this is a benefit, but there are many where people saw it as a sacrifice that simply had to be made in order to achieve the high levels of production and availability of goods and such. That was all because distribution was the hardest problem in the world for centuries. Now, however, it's a solved problem. It's commoditized. So all those drawbacks and sacrifices? They don't make sense any more. And in many, many cases, the centralization of production has very little value any longer.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#143
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> tell me which people you know, in which industries, have outright 'lost their jobs' due to some AI or machine? As software developers, it's literally our jobs to put people out of work. My software is specifically designed reduce the need for increased labor as the company crows. In my industry, legal, entire departments (like night word processing) no longer exist. The fact is you cannot extrapolate from 100 years…

It is your work to increase productivity. As tedious tasks are automated, you can deploy people doing new things. As you lower the cost of the product you manufacture or service you provide, you enable more people to afford it. That's how new industries are created. I am not to worried about the amount of work available as a whole. I am more worried about the nature of the work available, which will be increasingly s…

Even better, as you have automated tools available, no one needs you any more. 'You' being the company, that is. As factories replaced craftsmen, and distribution chains replaced individual travelling merchants, I think there is a very good chance that the very structure of centralized companies with offices and on-staff employees will dissolve. You were replying to someone working in the legal field, for example. Why does the person putting together my will or litigating a suit for me need to be backed by an organization with an office building, expensive executives, etc? An individual with the right knowledge and tools, that's all that's actually NEEDED. Much of economics centers around assuming that the market will eventually pare away inefficiencies and competition will strip away all but what is actually needed.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#144
post #95
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> tell me which people you know, in which industries, have outright 'lost their jobs' due to some AI or machine? I have literally seen a room full of people that lost their jobs because of software I wrote (admittedly, not alone, but still). The software was almost ready by that point and it was quite a disturbing experience that still bothers me up to this day to be honest. It had nothing to do with AI and was quite…

Losing their job is a violent and unpleasant process but a sort of necessary one as a society. I have seen that first hand many times. It forces people to reconsider their career, move to another more promising industry, move to another city or another country. That's how the economy adapts to change and resources are allocated efficiently. What I have seen often too is bankers wealthy enough to be able to live on th…

Sorry, but have you ever really witnessed firsthand the difficulty of being forced "to reconsider one's career, move to another more promising industry, or move to another city or another country"?

The economy might adapt to change, but people aren't able to nearly as well.

You say "capitalist's creative destruction", but it's really "greed-driven devastation".

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#145
post #50
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the advantage of this over universal basic income funded by taxes?

People think taxes are evil but for dome reason will accept warlords?

A gun in your face shortcuts a lot of inconvenient thinking.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#146
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with your main point (that this is a small increment to the industrial revolution), but two objections: > tell me which people you know, in which industries, have outright 'lost their jobs' due to some AI or machine Right now AI is still a future technology. The current AI algorithms are the equivalent of the early GSM phones, which looked like car batteries, very far from modern smartphones. But it is reason…

" But it is reasonable to expect that they will get better, and it is reasonable to expect that we will be able to emulate the brain with transistors and on a much bigger scale some days." No, it's not reasonable to assume they will emulate brains. Not even the experts are saying that. They're not trying to emulate brains at all.

Uhm... yes, they most definitely are. There are many efforts underway right now building 'neuromorphic' architectures with memristors (which function very similarly to neurons). I don't think there is any promise in the approach personally (our 'mind' is a property of the feedback loop between our body and the world, and can not exist without the body, dualism is just wrong) but there are many who disagree.

Also, even going back to von Neumann it has always been expected that the brain will be able to be built in hardware, simply because neurons exhibit binary behavior. They fire or not, and all the rest is massive interconnectedness and adaptive changes to their activation potential. There's lots of argument about whether reproducing the behavior of neurons will result in a 'mind' or be useful, but no one would argue that we simply won't be able to build a brain workalike.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#147
post #127
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The resentment of the winners (capital owners) by the losers (jobless masses) may lead to great upheaval, That's why we need to place the means of production in the hands of the people, not just of capitalists. > What will it mean to work and contribute to society in the future of machines? Self-supporting human society, a mix of small companies, skilled people and experts, using automation as well, that works to s…

Marx speaking...

Maybe, but I'm not sure Marx understood that capitalism would have such a potential for wealth distribution. Today, you can buy a 3D printer for 1/20th of the median US salary. You can buy a super computer that fits in your pocket for 1/50th of it. You can call your broker and buy an ownership stake in Apple, Exxon Mobil, or General Electric for smaller fractions than that.

Capitalism has actually provided far more avenues for laborers to own the means of production than any communist revolution has.

As automation gets better and cheaper, there will still be jobs for everyone - they'll just be performed by the robots they purchased for 1/10th, 1/20th or 1/50th of the median wage.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#148

I think we are destined for a future of political and social instability in the world if we continue to define labor and its compensation as we do now. We currently don't have a social understanding for navigating a world where little human labor is required. The resentment of the winners (capital owners) by the losers (jobless masses) may lead to great upheaval, to be harnessed by willing politicians of short-sighte…

I have done a lot of thinking about this. There are 2 things that keep sticking out to me: First, history. History does not make our future look good. Humanity has gone through a few disruptive changes in the way society viewed work and societal contribution. The most recent was with the spread of factories and assembly-line production. The result of the adoption of those structures/technologies was not good. Society…

Since 1980 this globalization happened, which literally added billions of low paid people to the work force. Many of them educated.

So of course there will be a global pressure on salaries. It is just market economics. (You can't coordinate a "New Deal" in countries all over the world at the same time.)

My point about that is -- it isn't all bad. Literally billions of people have left the utmost poverty. It just sucks for the ones of the old "middle privileged" level, like us.

If it was just that, I would cautiously be positive, but I agree -- this new level of automation implies "Big changes", which are scary. Most revolutions seems to end up with a large part of the population dead or in slavery.

Re: The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation

#150
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Up until global trade took off, cities, villages and even individual farms were almost self sufficient. Why couldn't people be self sufficient with automation?

Because self-sufficiency provides a much lower standard of living than what you can get with trade and specialization.

True when dealing with a human workforce. Not convinced it's equally true when dealing with an automated workforce. That being said, I don't see why self-sufficient villages is something to strive after even it could be done efficiently.
Post reply on HN