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The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bullshit

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141–150 of 163 posts

Re: The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bullshit

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the science has "social" before it, it always needs to be questioned - too much political interference. The entire field is low in actual results, high in political tooling..

It seems that's the case with more than just science, but possibly a good rule to follow with anything.

True. But social science is where the uncertain standards, and political gains are. No one can, or cares to, taint research into fundamental particles. Studies into any kind of demographic is a different case...

Re: The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bullshit

#142
post #134
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There was never a stream of pure, refined truth availablem, that just somehow lacked a distribution method Academic educational programs have exactly been the source-without-a-scalable-distribution-method for at least the past century. You're unlikely to find a treatment of mathematics or physics or even Computer Science that is as well-curated, free of coercive bias, and well-presented as it often is in the underg…

They are talking about how the internet, which was once seen a conduit of 'truth', is just a conduit which also spreads bullshit, and that there is no 'truth'. You are talking about education and scientific rigor as a means of talking about truth. While what you say may be true it doesn't seem applicable to their arguments.

> They are talking about how the internet, which was once seen a conduit of 'truth', is just a conduit which also spreads bullshit

That's what bikamonki was saying.

jerf's comment was tangential to the central thesis of bikamonki's post, and stated "There were things that claimed to be streams of pure, refined truth. Those claims didn't become false. They always were false"

> You are talking about education and scientific rigor as a means of talking about truth

No, I'm stating directly that there exist educational institutions that, through educational programs, transfer truth from one person to another.

Re: The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bullshit

#143
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes that may be true. Instead of trying to reproduce it, they attempt to build upon it. The projects which successfully build on previous projects become original research articles and the cycle continues.

No. That completely misrepresents the problem. tl;dr A false technique can be described and it can be hard or impossible to detect the technique is flawed by using it For example the paper at http://www.jstor.org/stable/222500 describes a method of using the stationary bootstrap to eliminate data snooping bias in studies of "technical analysis" in finance. Published in the Journal of Finance in 1999 at the time I wor…

Which exactly proof are you talking about? I briefly looked at the paper (I've seen it before, but it's been quite a while...), but it seems that they pretty much use a previously known approach, and the only proof in it is simply "replicated for convenience of the reader". Also, this would certainly be neither the first nor the last paper that ignores transaction costs, and their omission does not really invalidate the argument (even if you cannot profitably trade on an anomaly, why is it there in the first place?), so I don't think you can accuse them of bullshit just based on that.

Non-stationarity is a problem though. Still, you need a bit more to call complete bullshit on this imo -- e.g. say something like "after switching to a different bootstrap method that works in presence of stochastic volatility the result suddenly disappears". Perhaps that is what you do in your paper :) I should take a look.

All that being said, not many people believe in technical indicators working in equities these days, or anywhere really (FX was a bit of a holdout -- not sure if it still is?), so perhaps science has kinda sorted itself out in this case :) I've seen far worse cases of snooping and non-replicability though, and some are still going strong.

Re: The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bullshit

#144

The job market right now in the US forces grad students to attempt innovative research with remarkable conclusions. As a consequence, everyone's trying to prove more outlandish things while few are bothering with replications. If the field were sane, you would train all the apprentices on replication studies. Once they demonstrated dispassionate expertise with the tools, only then would they be allowed to try to use…

That is nearly the opposite of what the PhD was designed to do. Modern academic training comes out of the church and the old guilds of middle Europe and is still in use today in many fields (chefs and plumbers to name a few). The Bachelor's degree is loosely similar to an apprentice's role. The young boy (they were almost exclusively male) worked in a shop or with a priest for some time. He learned the trade, the too…

You could require both reproduction & novel work for the PhD. Or you could require reproduction for the MS, as a stepping-stone to novel work.

Today the MS & PhD are both supposed to prepare you to do novel research & science. Since reproducibility is a core part of research & science, it would make sense for you to reproduce another study as part of your learning process.

Re: The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bullshit

#145

"In the case of Lord Voldemort, the trick is to unleash so many fallacies, misrepresentations of evidence, and other misleading or erroneous statements — at such a pace, and with such little regard for the norms of careful scholarship and/or charitable academic discourse — that your opponents, who do, perhaps, feel bound by such norms, and who have better things to do with their time than to write rebuttals to each o…

I was just coming here to cite the Trumo campaign as an example. The unfortunate thing is that the amount of effort to counter this bullshit is significantly higher than the initial utterance and most likely will not reach the same audience.

For instance, Trump utters something completely off the wall. Retweets galore. Everybody gets spun up. Let's say it reaches 1million people which some portion now repeats the soundbite. Someone like Politifacts comes along after the fact and points out the discrepancy after fact checking. Reaches a much smaller follow up audience.

This is the sort of informational asymmetry that I find infuriating...

Re: The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bullshit

#146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What are the differences between postdocs, research assistants, research scientists and visiting scientists? These are some working definitions, based on my experiences in astronomy: Postdocs : researchers with a a PhD who generally have fixed-term contracts. Generally these positions are full-time research, though some may include teaching components. Research assistants : researchers, typically without PhDs, work…

If I had another lifetime to live, I would pour my heart and soul into astronomy. Life is too short.

> If I had another lifetime to live, I would pour my heart and soul into astronomy. Life is too short.

I know the feeling! Astro is great and I love it. But there's lots of other things I'd love to explore once I figure out galaxies :)

Re: The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bullshit

#147
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of the time those same students are doing the bulk of the legwork for those findings then attributed to a professor, who is under greater pressure to advance (not confirm) science, who may or may not have even participated heavily in the grunt work of that research. The professor then punishes the work under his/her name, with no credit to the work of the students.

> A lot of the time those same students are doing the bulk of the legwork for those findings then attributed to a professor, who is under greater pressure to advance (not confirm) science, who may or may not have even participated heavily in the grunt work of that research. The professor then punishes the work under his/her name, with no credit to the work of the students. It's important to note that though this seem…

I wonder if it correlates to how easily new discoveries can be monetized.

Astronomy is too far to reach, mathematics is too abstract to patent, etc.

Re: The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bullshit

#148
post #61

I find it vaguely amusing and ironic that he cites rationalwiki on the gish gallop, given that my impression is they do this themselves a bunch. (Note that running a gish gallop doesn't mean you're wrong , it just means you're intellectually dishonest.) (I try not to pay too much attention to them, and I'm not super interested in refuting their bullshit, so this comment is going to be pretty unsatisfying. Sorry.)

I haven't read much on rationalwiki, but nothing I did struck me as gish gallop. They might have a lot of angles on attack on some bunk concept, but they expand upon all of them.

It's worth asking how much you already know about the subject? It's easy to make an article that looks convincing and devastating to someone with no prior knowledge, but laughably incomplete to to someone in the field.

For example, a cited claim could be contradicted by the citation, or missing valuable context provided by the citation, and you'd need to look up the citation to discover this. Or the citation could be bogus, and you'd need to do further research. Or the claim could be a really trivial objection and its reply omitted, and again you'd need to do further research.

I'll accept that not all of these things necessarily make for a Gish gallop as such. But they do all seem to be in the broad category of "intellectual dishonesty through weak argumentation which is easier to perpetuate than refute". I'm not going to quibble about how to subcategorise that.

I'm reluctant to give specific examples, because that risks starting an argument about those examples. Hopefully this thread is now old enough to avoid that.

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So for example, we can look at http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Cryonics (permalink in case of edits: http://rationalwiki.org/w/index.php?title=Cryonics&oldid=159...). Just skimming it, the "engineering problems" section keeps referring to "freezing". Trivial objection: "freezing damages the cells!" Omitted reply: "yes, so we moved on from freezing". It does also talk about vitrification, but it makes no particular effort to distinguish between the two or to tell the reader that freezing is no longer current practice.

Elsewhere, "Alcor Corporation calls cryonics "a scientific approach to extending human life" and compares it to heart surgery.[8] This is a gross misrepresentation of the state of both the science and technology and verges on both pseudoscience and quackery."

What the citation actually says is: "Cryonics, like heart surgery, is a scientific approach to extending human life that does not violate any religious beliefs or their principles." They aren't making the comparison that RW wants to paint them as. They're sort of hinting in that direction, but they're not making any actual scientific claims here. (They do make scientific claims elsewhere. If they ever say that cryonics has the same chance of success as heart surgery, RW should feel free to call them on it. I'm pretty sure they never say that.)

Their citation for "Some advocates literally propose a magic-equivalent future artificial superintelligence that will make everything better" is not someone proposing that (later in the thread, he says nanobots would be sufficient but not necessary). You might want to read the citation for more replies to RW-level objections to cryonics.

I can tell you that "Belief in cryonics is pretty much required on LessWrong to be accepted as "rational."" is simply false, and probably wasn't true when it was written. The citation leads not to a survey of LWers opinions on cryonics, but to the opinion of the founder of LW.

Note that these objections are true, and reflect badly on RW, even if cryonics is complete bunk.

And also note that I didn't follow a single citation on that article and then decide "no, this seems fair". I picked things to follow according to what I expected to see, but I was never pleasantly surprised.

(In the interests of fairness, I'll say that I am pleasantly surprised they don't call cryonics a scam. RationalWiki: not quite as bad as it could be.)

And I've spent over an hour on this now, when I should have gone to bed. So I'm done.

Re: The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bullshit

#149
post #91
post #61

I find it vaguely amusing and ironic that he cites rationalwiki on the gish gallop, given that my impression is they do this themselves a bunch. (Note that running a gish gallop doesn't mean you're wrong , it just means you're intellectually dishonest.) (I try not to pay too much attention to them, and I'm not super interested in refuting their bullshit, so this comment is going to be pretty unsatisfying. Sorry.)

You can't make a comment like this with absolutely zero explanation other than that it was 'your impression'. I understand the whole refuting bullshit is a lot of work thing, but it's equally as irresponsible, if not more, to make a comment like this with no evidence for a claim. At least give us something !

See my other reply, also for why (apart from time commitment) I was reluctant to give evidence.

Re: The Unbearable Asymmetry of Bullshit

#150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that nobody's doing replication work in undergrad, either, nor does it happen in Master's programs. I do think it makes sense to stick with the PhD meaning you're a world class expert in some area, but if so then we need to adjust our expectations for what Master's level work means in the sciences. Right now it seems to just represent a hurdle you need to whiz past on your way to the PhD.

Everyone's doing replication work in undergrad, it just happens to be replication of the "highlights" or most important results. Farmed out the replication of every result to undergrads would, one be a practical/logistical nightmare, and two lead to less reliability in what a degree means. One student could spend their time working on a important result gaining tons of insight and expertise while another could be stu…

> Farmed out the replication of every result to undergrads would, one be a practical/logistical nightmare, and two lead to less reliability in what a degree means.

Actually I think farming out replication to undergrads would be an excellent approach. Your final year undergrad project should be to choose an under-replicated study and repeat it, publishing your findings. Each individual study might be less reliable if done by an undergrad than done by a seasoned researcher, but if each study is repeated by say 5 undergrads and 2+ of them fail to replicate the results, that would be enough to indicate that the study warrants further attention.

> One student could spend their time working on a important result gaining tons of insight and expertise while another could be stuck replicating a task that turned out to be worthless bullshit and have very little to show for it.

The whole point of science is that we don't know what will turn out to be an important result and what will turn out to be worthless bullshit. No study is worth a damn unless it's been replicated but everyone is too busy trying to land-grab the next little piece of unexplored territory to actually validate anything that comes before.

If nothing else, we need to regain the perception that a negative result is just as important as a positive result - to paraphrase Edison, discovering 100 things that don't work is just as important as discovering one thing that does.

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