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Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

bloomberg.com

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Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#131

Post by jrock08 »

josefresco wrote: post #12

Does a documentary or any in-depth information exist for the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology? I found the details of this university fascinating. FTA: Heavily armed guards on land and at sea protect the facility, where unveiled women study and work side by side with men, undisturbed by the religious police who patrol Saudi cities. Research there is aimed at scientific and commercial breakthroughs u…

I recently attended a conference at KAUST. It's a microcosm, and a very interesting one. They have absolutely world class facilities for science. The campus amenities are very nice. Housing is provided, and is probably 2x what you would get yourself. The hotel room (if you can call it that) that I stayed in was a 1300 sq.ft. two bedroom, two bath. The campus is a designed town, so everything is walkable and there are lots of greenways. There is schooling for elementary through high school, though I was told there are very few high school aged kids. However, there were many elementary aged children, and they seemed to lead a free-er life than their US contemporaries. I suppose there is no need to be a helicopter parent when you are in such a community. They have two recreational facilities which rival large state schools facilities in size and rival large private schools in quality. They pay their grad students, postdocs, and faculty on about a 2-3x multiplier.

However, the campus is small, it's circumference is only ~5 miles, after a week, I was feeling content, but somewhat trapped. I feel it would be a very good place to do work for a few years, but life would be difficult to compare to a "normal" US lifestyle.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#132

Post by _rpd »

retube wrote: post #64
btilly wrote: post #60

Here is my brother's pet theory on why the price of oil fell. Saudi Arabia wanted the USA to intervene against ISIS. The USA wanted the price of oil the fall to hamper Russia and Venezuela. Russia because they are getting aggressive and doing things in the Ukraine and Syria that we don't like. Venezuela because they are the center of anti-Americanism in South and Central America. Which is exactly what happened. We bo…

No. The price has fallen as demand has waned, or at least did not match expectations as global GDP expectations fell. Normally Saudi would reduce supply to keep the price up. But they've taken the opportunity to attack their biggest threat: US Shale oil. By keeping production up, the price has dropped and that is pushing shale oil extractors out of business: these guys need ~$60/barrel to be profitable. It's having a…

This is a good analysis. However, it is a little odd that everyone mentions the Saudi failure to reduce supply as a factor in lower prices, but no one mentions the increased supply from US shale oil. Although up slightly, conventionals are relatively flat. Most of the global supply increase has come from nonconventionals and US shale oil's role is significant.

Interestingly, most US shale oil investments seem to properly protected against price drops via commodities contracts - at least through this year - so the near term pain will be in the financial industry.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#133

Post by crdoconnor »

67726e wrote: post #106
crdoconnor wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government A will more likely see their market operate in a rational way rather than irrational way. The rational way for its market to respond will be to shift to non-carbon forms of energy generation (which are already pretty much cost competitive without subsidies anyhow). The irrational way would simply be to stop producing and exporting goods because coal is more expensive.

The problem with that line of thought is that it's not going to be cheaper overnight. All the while Government A is plugging along on renewables, driving the price down, Government B is going to be eating Government A's lunch.

>The problem with that line of thought is that it's not going to be cheaper overnight.

Absolutely wrong. Renewables are pretty much cost competitive without subsidies now. What you are saying may have been true 5 or 10 years ago but is not any longer.

A tax on carbon would just be a nudge over an already existing tipping point. It would turn a cost/benefit analysis that could go either way into a no brainer. That's what we want.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#134

Post by dirtyaura »

67726e wrote: post #123
dirtyaura wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the problem (CO2 pollution) is considered serious enough by multiple governments, Government A can join forces with Government C, D, and E and form a trade agreement against B. They can create a trade embargo against B, or have higher customs tax for products from Government B or other kinds of trade sanctions. Isn't this just international politics 101? EU and US have trade sanctions against Russia at the moment.…

Let's use a real-world example: China. How likely is that to work out? Now well. China gets cheaper oil, can't be easily coerced by force, and there is a large level of dependence.

First, if it works against Russia, it can work against China. It's just harder. Level of dependence between many EU countries and Russian energy sources are comparable to US trade with China.

Second, there's a false assumption in your real-world example that China doesn't want to protect their environment. If the danger is real and serious, they will. Currently they are just playing catch up with economic activity and living standards and at some point the environmental issues will become to focus. There is already raising environmental awareness in Chinese cities due to pollution.

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#135

Post by msandford »

magicalist wrote: post #112
msandford wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10% of households bought a new car, and that means that the average lifespan of a car with its FIRST owner must be on average 10 years. Cars might last 20-30 years in the UK as the previous poster pointed out, and longer in the rest of Europe which is already "rich" relative to India. I think you're proving his point exactly.

> 10% of households bought a new car, and that means that the average lifespan of a car with its FIRST owner must be on average 10 years. Maybe I need more coffee, but wouldn't that only be true if every household only bought new cars? In any case, we don't have to guess these things. Simple search found that in 2011 the mean car age on UK roads was 7.44 years. Even accounting for the long tail, that's actually prett…

Ah, excellent point. Yup, I got that one wrong!

Re: Saudi Arabia’s Plan to Extend the Age of Oil

#136

Post by avn2109 »

berkut wrote: post #16
josefresco wrote: post #12

Does a documentary or any in-depth information exist for the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology? I found the details of this university fascinating. FTA: Heavily armed guards on land and at sea protect the facility, where unveiled women study and work side by side with men, undisturbed by the religious police who patrol Saudi cities. Research there is aimed at scientific and commercial breakthroughs u…

Not sure, but I know of people at top-10 universities in the UK who were offered stupid amounts of money to move over there.

Yup, I was pretty aggressively recruited to do a PhD there from an American school, too.
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