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The future of jobs: The onrushing wave

economist.com

131–140 of 141 posts

Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave

#131

Ftee trade destroys wages, of this there is no secret. De-regulation subverts democracy. Time to revisit the relationship between capital and well-being. Ricardian theories of comparative advantage drive wealth into the hands of those who control capital, not into the calloused hands of the poor suckers who sweat.

Automation destroys far more jobs than free trade. If anything we should ban automation.

It wasn't automation that destroyed US manufacturing

Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But to replace a fire fighter would require order of magnitude discoveries in several fields you would effectively need true AI and a self powered robot with as good strength and endurance as a human.

Don't assume that the robotic solution will look anything like the human solution. A fitbit does not look like a "robotic personal trainer" and a roomba does not look like a person with a broom. I would speculate that the obvious next wins for fire-fighting are drones to visualise the scene from multiple angles, remote control or self-aiming hoses and extinguishers. And various hardened eyes and arms to reach into th…

Right a robot that can perform as well as a fit human firefighter will be available any time now just like fusion, Hard AI is only 5 years away and have been for the last 50 years.

Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't assume that the robotic solution will look anything like the human solution. A fitbit does not look like a "robotic personal trainer" and a roomba does not look like a person with a broom. I would speculate that the obvious next wins for fire-fighting are drones to visualise the scene from multiple angles, remote control or self-aiming hoses and extinguishers. And various hardened eyes and arms to reach into th…

I'm actually most of the way done with a prototype of a quadcopter that can be deployed on a scene that just orbits and streams video to a monitor in the chiefs vehicle. It's mostly off the shelf components, with a little bit of 'wrapper' that makes is easier to deploy. The biggest issue I haven't sorted out yet is the batteries... LiPo batteries are great in terms of capacity/weight, but if you keep them fully charg…

Ok can this go into a burning building find trapped people and carry them out?

Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave

#134
post #124
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope you were being sarcastic... but in case you weren't, why would we ever create meaningless work instead of just giving people money for pursuing whatever makes them happy? A basic income guarantee seems like a much more reasonable solution than "put everyone to work digging holes and filling them in again".

>>just giving people money for pursuing whatever makes them happy? A basic income guarantee seems like a much more reasonable solution Because recent history suggests, when offered money/stuff/income gurantee for free: a. In the eyes of the individual receiving money, the value, importance and the perceived hard work that had to be done to earn it, as time passes, tends to zero. b. A vast majority of people tend just…

Aside from being generally inaccurate, your points completely ignore the fact that we are talking about the future, not the present. Specifically, we are talking about a future in which there is simply no useful "work" for most people to do.

You can read more about the idea here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income

There is also:

http://isa-global-dialogue.net/indias-great-experiment-the-t...

and

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mincome

Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Automation destroys far more jobs than free trade. If anything we should ban automation.

It wasn't automation that destroyed US manufacturing

Manufacturing only became the major source of employment after all the farm laborers had become unemployed due to automation. As another comment mentioned, just banning wheat harvesters alone would create thousands of jobs. If creating jobs was our only goal.

Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But is that really a make-work job? I doubt they would pay people to do that if it doesn't make more money than it costs (or at least they believe it does.)

Most of people commenting like this ("'they' can't possibly pay for that unless it makes some kind of ROI") have not experienced business at scale. Beyond a certain scale of business, sales and marketing management at those levels sometimes becomes very abstract, and relies as much upon suppositions as actual data. This is why brand marketing still exists, even though far more accurate and precise quantitative method…

I think it's more likely that you have not experienced competent marketing at scale. It is indeed carefully measured and managed according to its ROI.

Being so dismissive of brand marketing is a big hint that you might not fully understand it. Consider that even companies that are very savvy about data collection and analysis engage in brand marketing, like Google.

Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave

#137
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

s/Democracy and legislation/vested interests and cronyism/

I beg to differ, democracy and legislation allowed vested interests and cronyism to occur/take place/take hold. So it is also to blame for what most, including you, blame on "vested interests and cronyism". Of course, this sort of thing would never happen in a "True Democracy". Maybe they have it in Scotland, run by the Scots, perhaps?

I wasn't really invoking that fallacy, but congratulations for being aware of it and showing us how smart you are!

Ostensibly, representatives and senators decided to modify the tax code in this way. Unfortunately, the commercial entities that wanted it really didn't give them a choice in the matter - so it was no decision at all (reduce them: get re-elected; don't reduce them: don't get re-elected).

It all comes down to who holds the purse strings ... on campaigns.

Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wasn't automation that destroyed US manufacturing

Manufacturing only became the major source of employment after all the farm laborers had become unemployed due to automation. As another comment mentioned, just banning wheat harvesters alone would create thousands of jobs. If creating jobs was our only goal.

Farm labourers became unemployed as a result of govt. policy to undermine farm worker political power.

More labour intensive farming would be a good thing. At the moment the US uses 10cals of energy to produce 1cal of food. Pre "get big or get out" it was 1 in 2 out.

Back to manufacturing, it is free trade that has gutted US manufacturing capability. Just look at the trade deficit, the rest of the world benefits greatly, capitalists get great returns on their free movement of money. The US loses taxes, jobs, and wealth and is eroding its long term economy while the short term policy makers make hay.

Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm actually most of the way done with a prototype of a quadcopter that can be deployed on a scene that just orbits and streams video to a monitor in the chiefs vehicle. It's mostly off the shelf components, with a little bit of 'wrapper' that makes is easier to deploy. The biggest issue I haven't sorted out yet is the batteries... LiPo batteries are great in terms of capacity/weight, but if you keep them fully charg…

Ok can this go into a burning building find trapped people and carry them out?

No? That's well outside the scope of its design... what's your point?

Re: The future of jobs: The onrushing wave

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of people commenting like this ("'they' can't possibly pay for that unless it makes some kind of ROI") have not experienced business at scale. Beyond a certain scale of business, sales and marketing management at those levels sometimes becomes very abstract, and relies as much upon suppositions as actual data. This is why brand marketing still exists, even though far more accurate and precise quantitative method…

I think it's more likely that you have not experienced competent marketing at scale. It is indeed carefully measured and managed according to its ROI. Being so dismissive of brand marketing is a big hint that you might not fully understand it. Consider that even companies that are very savvy about data collection and analysis engage in brand marketing, like Google.

There are certainly lots of companies doing competent marketing at scale, and they are certainly the norm for large SV businesses. That is not in question. But it's a big world out there, and there are a shockingly larger number of big businesses in the world that do throw big, big bucks at brand-establishing marketing initiatives, with very little to no quantifiable and precise marketing-to-sales-to-close-to-per-customer-support-cost metrics. I don't see where I'm dismissing brand marketing (and especially the newer data-driven brand marketing); please point it out so I can clarify with a follow up comment. I'm laying out (to those who might not have been exposed to it) the reasoning that goes on behind seemingly nonsensical activities (like the aforementioned call centers devoted to cold calling). Very rarely in big business do completely harebrained activities last terribly long; in hindsight some activities might have been ill-advised, but over the long run most decisions are made with the best intentions and very hazy decision-making data. I'm pretty excited to see what the data-driven marketing and sales future looks like, myself.
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