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A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

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Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#131
post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With the advent of electronic price labeling in retail stores we will soon live in a world where the price can change after you've picked up an item of the shelf and before you check out at the front of the store. http://www.marketingmagazine.co.uk/article/1181195/real-time...

I don't think that this would be legal in the UK unless on upwards changes the labels changed a reasonable[0] time before the prices. Unfair Commercial Practices Directive and probably some other laws would probably cover it. [0] A small shop could probably do it much quicker than a large supermarket which might have to allow for people being in there for an hour.

Ya, I'm sure there will be tricky regulatory issues here both in the UK and elsewhere. I'm just pointing it out as I find it interesting.

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#132
post #121

What is happening here is really quite simple, and doesn't deserve an entire blog post. There are two exchanges, A and B, and a market maker Jill is quoting (say) 10,000 shares on each of those two exchanges for $17. Big institutional trader Jack sees the 20,000 shares and decides that he wants to buy 15,000 of them, so he sends two orders for 7,500 shares each to A and B. Because of various effects (network latencie…

"Fresh Apples here! Only the best apples for 2 dollars!" - "I would like one, please." - "Thatll be 2.50, sir." - "What? I thought you just said 2?" - "Demand has just gone up."

I'm glad you brought this up, because this kind of thing happens precisely never on a financial exchange.

If you go to a store, the store owner sees you take your apples up to the counter, and so he can theoretically change his price before you get there (although in practice, if he ever did that he would soon be out of business).

On a financial exchange, the market maker doesn't even find out that you wanted to buy until the trade has already happened. It is literally impossible for the market maker to change his price, because he doesn't find out about your order until it's already occurred.

What is possible is that the market maker is also quoting on another, totally separate exchange, and he decides to change his prices there, in reaction to seeing a big order on the first exchange.

It's like an apple seller who owns two carts in different parts of town. When you come to his first cart and buy all his apples for $2, he guesses that maybe you are going to go over to his second cart and buy all the apples there as well, so he calls his business partner who's running that cart, and tells him to raise his prices to $2.50 - which makes perfect sense as a business strategy, because demand has gone up.

Note that he only raised his prices because you bought all the apples at his first cart. If you just bought one apple out of the hundreds he has (because you're a small investor, not a giant investment bank) then he wouldn't bother to raise his prices.

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#133

All exchanges should have synced clocks and all messages should have a timestamp up to 2 seconds in the future when they will be published by each exchange. The buffering would be internal to each exchange and not shared with anybody. You can only cancel after what you are cancelling is published. This would allow everyone to make all exchanges publish at once so people with fast cable between exchanges can't beat ou…

What do you think would happen to bid-ask spreads if this was imposed?

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#134
As a non-trader, my question is:

Were the 24k shares being offered by one seller/broker, as in "I have 24k shares to sell at 17" or was the 24k just an aggregation of the availability all the smaller offers?

If the former, it seem to me that the seller is cheating, if it is the latter then I can see how the HFT systems would raise the price in response to a sale, but I also see how frustrating that is to the buyer.

I wonder why these trades are not being performed in parallel across the various exchanges, partially preventing this kind of arbitrage?

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. The poor hardworking people who get to invest in the stock market should have all the benefits of liquidity without paying for it.

Right, because without HFT's there would be no one investing in the markets at all.

Most dark pools that exclude HFTs fail to get off the ground because they are unable to offer the liquidity that investors require.

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is supposed to be the case that you do not place orders on an exchange that you have no intention of executing. i.e. if you place an offer which you intend to withdraw then replace with a higher one the moment you detect interest in the offer then you are breaking the rules. In general it's also pretty scummy to do it. Imagine a shop seeing you taking items from shelves at an advertised price and saying "Well that…

That is not at all true. It is perfectly legal and valid to place quotes at a price that you expect is valid and change them once interest is detected. This is a standard market dynamic and one that makes the markets work. Your analogy is not all how HFT works. A better analogy would be a string of gas stations going down the highway. A tanker truck comes to the first one and buys all it's gas. Then the second one, a…

> This is a standard market dynamic and one that makes the markets work.

I don't believe this is necessary to make markets work.

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is not at all true. It is perfectly legal and valid to place quotes at a price that you expect is valid and change them once interest is detected. This is a standard market dynamic and one that makes the markets work. Your analogy is not all how HFT works. A better analogy would be a string of gas stations going down the highway. A tanker truck comes to the first one and buys all it's gas. Then the second one, a…

> This is a standard market dynamic and one that makes the markets work. I don't believe this is necessary to make markets work.

Forgot your mumbo jumbo evidence & logical reasoning! I believe what I believe and you can't stop me!

stomps foot

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#138
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is a standard market dynamic and one that makes the markets work. I don't believe this is necessary to make markets work.

Forgot your mumbo jumbo evidence & logical reasoning! I believe what I believe and you can't stop me! stomps foot

Please don't be so rude, it doesn't add anything to the conversation.

There are many markets where you list a product for a price, and are legally bound to sell them at that price.

Those markets function, proving that withdrawing quotes is not necessary to make markets work.

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#139
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Forgot your mumbo jumbo evidence & logical reasoning! I believe what I believe and you can't stop me! stomps foot

Please don't be so rude, it doesn't add anything to the conversation. There are many markets where you list a product for a price, and are legally bound to sell them at that price. Those markets function, proving that withdrawing quotes is not necessary to make markets work.

What markets are those? I can think of no markets in which you're not allowed to change the price of whatever goods you're selling.

Re: A detailed exposé on how the market is rigged from a data-centric approach

#140

As a non-trader, my question is: Were the 24k shares being offered by one seller/broker, as in "I have 24k shares to sell at 17" or was the 24k just an aggregation of the availability all the smaller offers? If the former, it seem to me that the seller is cheating, if it is the latter then I can see how the HFT systems would raise the price in response to a sale, but I also see how frustrating that is to the buyer. I…

> Were the 24k shares being offered by one seller/broker, as in "I have 24k shares to sell at 17" or was the 24k just an aggregation of the availability all the smaller offers?

The shares were being quoted on different exchanges, at the same ask price. 24k was the cumulative volume that the buyer wanted, but that couldn't be fulfilled by a single exchange (the quote was for a smaller volume at that price). Therefore, to buy 24k shares, the buyer needs to trade twice, once at each exchange.

> I wonder why these trades are not being performed in parallel across the various exchanges, partially preventing this kind of arbitrage?

As has been pointed out, this is what a good broker will do - they will compensate for latency to make sure that bids arrive at differing venues at the same time to prevent the market shifting underneath them. A naïve broker will simply send out the bids at the same, and latency means that they arrive at different exchanges at different times. This lets the sellers at the more distant exchange move the market in response to the information of the trade being executed at the closer exchange.

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