Earlier quoted context omitted.
>I think it's an acceptance of reality. All of technological progress consists of refusing to roll over and "accept reality" - instead, attacking it and modifying it to suit our needs. >There is a phase change when systems become too complex for a single human to ever understand them in their entirety. This is how innovation dies. The disease is preventable: http://naggum.no/erik/complexity.html > To them, MySql is t…
I believe I categorically disagree with every point you make. You are pissing in the wind if you think you can treat a system with 100M LOC the same way you wrote assembly on a 6502. They are different beasts, with totally different emergent properties. It's like claiming that you can understand the weather if you just stick to thinking about individual molecules. [edit:] I believe the xkcd strip can be read two ways…
I would be, if I actually believed that it is possible given current technology. However, I believe that the problem is technological rather than fundamental, and that we can arrive at a solution. Let me give you an example of a problem that was once thought to be fundamental and inescapable yet ceased to be viewed as such. Before the advent of high-quality structural steel, no building (save a pyramid) could exceed five stories or so in height. Towards the end of the 19th century, metallurgy advanced, and the limit vanished. I believe that we are facing a similar situation with knowledge. The conventional wisdom is that the era of "encyclopedic intellects" (and now, human-comprehensible software) is gone forever due to the brain's limited capacity for handling complexity. Yet I believe that the computer could do for mental power what steam engines did for muscle power. I am not alone in this belief - here are some pointers to recommended reading, by notables such as Doug Engelbart:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_amplification
Additionally: why do you assume that any system built to date necessarily must contain 100M LOC? Does this not in itself suggest that we are doing something wrong?
> clinging to the idea that it is reducible and manageable
All of technological civilization rests on the assumption that the universe is ultimately "reducible" to knowable facts and "manageable" in the sense of being amenable to manipulation (or at least, understanding). The alternative is the capricious and anthropomorphic universe imagined by primitive tribes, run according to the whim of the gods rather than physical law.
> We don't rely on quantum mechanics to build bridges
I must disagree here. QM is entirely relevant to the science of material strength, which is ultimately a branch of metallurgy - arguably a discipline of applied chemistry. In any legitimate science, there really are "turtles all the way down." And when there is a discontinuity in the hierarchy of understanding - say, the situation in physics with the need to reconcile general relativity and QM - it is viewed as a situation to be urgently dealt with, rather than a dismal fate to accept and live with forever.
A computer, unlike the planet's atmosphere, is a fully deterministic system. It is an epic surrender to stupidity if we start treating programming the way we treat weather prediction - as something that is not actually expected to reliably work in any reasonable sense of the word, or to obey any solid mathematical principles. It is a disaster, to be fought.