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Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom

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Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom

#131

Post by hasmolo »

darksim905 wrote: post #86

This isn't really related to the post, but I need to vent I suppose. CoreWeave feels very YC-ish. I thought I had an in as a referral for a position there and got interviewed by someone who knew a lot of my peers where I worked. Dude seemed to ask very textbook style questions that you would only learn if you went to a school system for this particular position/subject. I guess I didn't answer to their satisfaction d…

the interview process was rewritten at coreweave by a bunch of hired google engineers to reflect the rest of the industry about a month before they went public. at the time they were prepping for IPO they started to hire from other fortune 500s aggressively, and the whole company went from startup to same shit as the valley over about 6 months. when i interviewed the process was shockingly simple, like literally tell me how to fetch json in go, and by the time i left it was 6 rounds targeted to take two months.

Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom

#132

Post by Mistletoe »

oceanplexian wrote: post #77
Mistletoe wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can someone even outline the AI bull case? I can’t fathom one at all. https://isaiprofitable.com/ The only profitable company is the one running the scam.

Do you use it or is this speculation? The AI tooling I used 12-24 months ago if frozen in time, monetized correctly is probably 100x the capability of what software could do before (And software was already eating the world long before AI). The bull case is that we just invented the 21st century equivalent of the printing press or electricity. And that website is the 19th century equivalent of someone criticizing ele…

That’s all great but that isn’t a bull case for getting actual money out of it at the levels needed to justify the spending. Our entire stock market (everyone’s retirement) is based on this right now. Not all amazing inventions enrich everyone involved. Sometimes it’s just pgp or the dishwasher. It’s interesting you mention electricity, because that’s what AI feels like to me. It will be important and vital, but you don’t care where it comes from, you just care if it works and nobody really makes a killing from a commodity like electricity. The valuation of these companies is based on AI being something completely different from what it will be because of hysteria. There is no difference between this and the GME meme stocks, it simply got bigger and has now swallowed the whole economy.

Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom

#133

Post by drawfloat »

roenxi wrote: post #92
vasco wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not circular! And if it is, it's not a problem! And if it's a problem, it doesn't affect me!

Those are 3 thresholds that a situation typically has to meet before people get upset about something. Arguably the 3rd one is not great, but the other two are just obvious and basic requirements. In this case even that last one is fine, the financial system is set up so that, in theory, other people losing money doing something stupid is a problem firewalled to just them.

It’s beyond naive to think this falling apart will not hit the jobs and finances of ordinary people who never touched ai investment.

Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom

#134

Post by michaelt »

aurareturn wrote: post #112
michaelt wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bear in mind the last big thing from the tech industry was cryptocurrency. And that was rife with scams, chicanery, and nonexistent investments. As well as needing lots of GPU-filled power hungry data centres. So I think a lot of people are viewing the AI boom through the same lens.

I don't think the tech industry embraced cryptocurrency. There are a few outliers like Meta's basket of currency crypto attempt and Sam Altman's World Coin. Meanwhile, the entire tech industry has embraced LLMs one way or another.

Maybe not, but the cryptocurrency grifters all dressed themselves as tech visionaries.

And tech venture capitalists, Altman and Musk were big boosters of cryptocurrencies.

To an outsider, cryptocurrency cones from the tech industry, despite the fact Apple and Google didn’t bet big on it.

Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom

#135

Post by convolvatron »

lionkor wrote: post #120
Der_Einzige wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

"the real deal"? this whole framing is black and white. It can be useful and also be a complete and utter fucking scam the way it's "produced" and sold.

it could also be a real advance, a valuable tool, lead to a bunch of great ideas and products, and still not be a good return on the trillions that have been dumped into it mindlessly.

Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom

#136

Post by derangedHorse »

SecretDreams wrote: post #124
aurareturn wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- you fund a new company and sign long terms contracts with it - this new company uses the money you gave it and a lot of debt (backed by long term contracts) to build datacenters and buy a lot of GPU - your figures look great Coreweave and Nebius think this is a great business model. Their lenders also think this can work. It's not the fault of Nvidia. If their business model thinks they can make a profit doing it t…

> The core problem here seems to be that people think your supplier having an equity stake in your company is wrong or risky. If these were all private entities, I think it'd be okay. But they're public entities and they're using the pittance of investment as a force multiplier on their stock price, which they're then regularly using to raise capital. A lot of dumb money in retail investors (as well as corporate) are…

> But they're public entities and they're using the pittance of investment as a force multiplier on their stock price, which they're then regularly using to raise capital.

That's not how that works. Their stock price is not directly correlated with them raising capital since Nvidia has not issued new shares (or sold shares on the open market) since their IPO. Their corporate bond is also not based on, or relies on, the stock price since they must be paid back in cash.

Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom

#137

Post by trinsic2 »

Muromec wrote: post #121
KumaBear wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it goes bust who bails them industry out?

Somebody should go in jail big time if it has be bailed out

We bailed out the banks during the housing crisis and nobody went to jail. And look at where we are at now? In 20 years we are going to have smart cities run by tech barons where we are all serfs

Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom

#138

Post by [deleted] »

Mistletoe wrote: post #30
rapidfl wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are looking for the AI bear case - so this headline gotta work better. Its not a bad idea haha. More people suspect there is some circular shenanigans but want confirmation -- so maybe this is the best way to lure them in. Come as the bear, stay for the bull. With just these 2 comments, now I'm really gonna read that article.

Can someone even outline the AI bull case? I can’t fathom one at all. https://isaiprofitable.com/ The only profitable company is the one running the scam.

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom

#139

Post by CrimsonRain »

KumaBear wrote: post #100
CrimsonRain wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think it's a problem, short NV or buy competitors who are not doing this or don't buy their share at all. If you're right, they'll get burned soon enough and it's none of your business!

If it goes bust who bails them industry out?

Nobody should do that. Let them burn including the investors who allowed this.

Re: Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom

#140

Post by wizzwizz4 »

vb-8448 wrote: post #108
CrimsonRain wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think it's a problem, short NV or buy competitors who are not doing this or don't buy their share at all. If you're right, they'll get burned soon enough and it's none of your business!

To make money on financial markets it's not just about "if" but also "when" ... and even if I think it's problem (which I didn't say) i for sure don't know "when"!

Someone had a model combining shorting with investigative journalism, a while back. They'd short, then release evidence showing that the company was way overvalued, then make their money when the stock price dropped.
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