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It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

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Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#131

Post by OtomotO »

danelski wrote: post #60
OtomotO wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we don't have access to capital, we will abolish capital altogether. This still backfire to the oligarchs

Are you sure the capital-enabled won't abolish us for trying to do so?

Capital loses all it's value the moment it's all in the hands of a few.

If people cannot even get a piece of the cake anymore, the cake doesn't hold any power over them.

So if the rich and powerful just hoard the money, they will lose.

If they hoard weapons: well, if they need people to operate the weapons (or serve them), they will still fall.

The thing is: They look invincible. They are not though. They are human, they bleed, they fear, they die just like the rest of us.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#132

Post by inigyou »

OtomotO wrote: post #131
danelski wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure the capital-enabled won't abolish us for trying to do so?

Capital loses all it's value the moment it's all in the hands of a few. If people cannot even get a piece of the cake anymore, the cake doesn't hold any power over them. So if the rich and powerful just hoard the money, they will lose. If they hoard weapons: well, if they need people to operate the weapons (or serve them), they will still fall. The thing is: They look invincible. They are not though. They are human,…

That's true for money, but there are real capital resources whose ownership matters extremely. E.g. every part of food production.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#133

Post by sanderjd »

senordevnyc wrote: post #123
sanderjd wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah reading this timeline wasn't satisfying to me for exactly this reason: It didn't give the counterarguments that were being made at the time of each "goalpost". My (probably flawed, but still) memory is that the first one of these threads I participated in, at the end of 2022, was saying that none of us would have jobs after two more years of development of these models. Two years from then was almost two years a…

It’s true that AI hasn’t replaced us all in the last few years, but it’s completely changed software engineering, and honestly a LOT of that change has been in the last nine months or so. And it’s supposedly destroyed the market for juniors. In the grand sweep of history, does it really matter if AI takes two years to replace us or ten years to replace us?

This is true, and it's also true that both boosters and doomers have consistently made incorrect predictions about the timeline.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#134

Post by cyanydeez »

an0malous wrote: post #4

You should add a parallel timeline of how many times AI CEOs have claimed their next model is too dangerous to release, AGI is months away, or some white collar job will be obsolete within 6 months. I don’t know anyone in the tech industry who thinks AGI will never happen or that software engineering and white collar jobs can’t be automated. We all read sci fi, you’re not some unique visionary for anticipating AI. Th…

Yes, the problem is the FOMO of AGI and the psychosis that comes from the need to manipulate the market like a ever increasing tone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shepard_tone

The bubble is this.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#135

Post by senordevnyc »

OtomotO wrote: post #128
senordevnyc wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much of HN has devolved into Yahoo Answers levels of inane buffoonery, sadly. Especially when it comes to screeching about how AI is so terrible, blah blah. So tiresome.

I feel the same about the endless hype, so I guess it's in the eye of the beholder

How could it not be?

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#136

Post by jenniferhooley »

anuramat wrote: post #130
jenniferhooley wrote: post #69

Man the one-shot game that is genuinely good in 2027 is crazy. A good game typically takes around 3-8 years of development by multiple skilled people. Maybe 3 years or so for 1 guy that's super dedicated. Right now single prompt with Fable can get us a small protype of like 1 game mechanic that's not even remotely production ready. So this guy thinks it'll 100,000X in a year. AI boosters are something else.

> 100000x in a year why not? fable 5 (2026) is an inf% improvement over having nothing (2022) in any case, stop pretending that it can be represented by a single scalar value, or at least use log scale units

Oh, you think we are going to have another breakthrough in artificial intelligence rivaling the one we had in 2022 this year or next? What research or studies lead you to believe this? Could I see one?

I haven't personally seen the research leading me to believe there's a massive new intelligence breakthrough on the horizon but maybe I missed it!

As to the current version - I use AI constantly, as in 12 hours a day 7 days a week specifically for high-end game development. It is currently so far from the 2027 prediction that it's hilarious if you think a little incremental improvement (e.g., like from opus 4.6 to Fable) is going to bring us there.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#137

Post by OtomotO »

inigyou wrote: post #132
OtomotO wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Capital loses all it's value the moment it's all in the hands of a few. If people cannot even get a piece of the cake anymore, the cake doesn't hold any power over them. So if the rich and powerful just hoard the money, they will lose. If they hoard weapons: well, if they need people to operate the weapons (or serve them), they will still fall. The thing is: They look invincible. They are not though. They are human,…

That's true for money, but there are real capital resources whose ownership matters extremely. E.g. every part of food production.

People will not just lay down and wait for death's sweet embrace though.

There is a whole lot of people involved in food production and the owners can't own it without people willing to let them own it.

As soon as money is out of the equation many powerful lose their power.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#138

Post by solumos »

anuramat wrote: post #127
solumos wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google's definition is sufficient[0]. I'd also go so far as to say that LLMs aren't even AI, but that can be a bit pedantic. I align with Richard Sutton's reasoning, in that LLMs (and GPT models more generally) aren't "intelligent" in the same way that RL models are[1]. [0] - https://cloud.google.com/discover/what-is-artificial-general... [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21EYKqUsPfg

how is GPT more general than LLM? also it's not really "LLM vs RL", they're kinda orthogonal

Small-language models also use GPT. And I agree it's not "LLM vs RL" and that they're orthogonal, however, RL has features that more clearly resemble intelligence.

Re: It Still Can't Do My Job: Four Years of Moving Goalposts (2022–2026)

#139

Post by Diogenesian »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #42
whateveracct wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

? in a professional setting, my coworkers are just randomly gonna make stuff up

That is the entire industry of business consulting. Boston consulting group Bain and MacKenzie make billions of years completely making shit up. same thing with Ernst and young and any of these organizations that make these “future of (insert market)” reports

Again, they never made up totally fictional citations or any otherwise immediately falsifiable statements. In fact it is the opposite problem: technically these reports are quite clean and up to finest MBA standards. The BS is ideological / methodological / social / delusionally optimistic strategizing, and so on. This BS involves the most powerful and haziest forms of human cognition. Consultants "making stuff up" really is not the same thing as a frontier SOTA LLM being unable to summarize a document without making up a few numbers.
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