Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

morningstar.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

131–140 of 301 posts

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#131

Post by WalterBright »

ElProlactin wrote: post #61
ink_13 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For certain values of "reality". It doesn't take a financial analysis to tell you that it is bananas that Tesla (~1.3T) is worth more than four times as much as Toyota (280B), and yet.

But there's no law that says prices must be based on standard financial analysis. You and I and a million other people might run away from Tesla's valuation but that doesn't mean that the market must. I think it's very obvious that the historical norms that governed and explained pricing in the stock market no longer apply, for better or worse. Between the massive manipulation of the markets by central banks to the r…

People grossly undervalued the IPOs of Amazon and Microsoft.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#132

Post by Terr_ »

verandaguy wrote: post #44

I need to understand what possible benefit there is to doing DCs in space. The cost would be, no pun intended, fucking astronomical. The cooling situation would make no sense at all -- the major up-and-coming application of DCs, LLM training, has absurd cooling requirements even here on earth where convective cooling is an option, to the point where many DCs use open-loop cooling. Latency might be better, in some cas…

> Who is this product for?

1. Using one part of Musk's holdings to trick people into feeling optimistic about how it will do incest with another part.

2. Megalomania dreams of becoming the Tessier-Ashpools from Neuromancer with their private fiefdom.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#133

Post by SilverElfin »

jmyeet wrote: post #23

From SpaceX's S-! it bases its valuation on the total addressable market of 3 markets, which is made up of: 1. Space operations: $370 billion; 2. Connectivitiy: $1.6 trillion, roughly split between mobile and broadband; and 3. AI: $26.5 trillion, which includes $22.4T in AI Enterprise applications, $2.4T in AI infrastructure, $760B in subscriptions (ie Grok) and $600B in digital advertising. So immediately we see the…

> There'll be a race to the bottom, hardware will get cheaper, eventually AI agents will be run locally (even on phones, eventually) and it's just not the cash show OpenAI, SpaceX or Anthropic think it is.

That’s why we are seeing pushes for regulatory capture, safety fear mongering, large government contracts, and even potentially the government taking stakes in these companies. It’s a sprint to cash out before they get commoditized.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#135

Post by collinmcnulty »

ralph84 wrote: post #105
oldfuture wrote: post #15

And the prospectus says it plainly: "Mr. Musk will be able to control the outcome of matters requiring shareholder approval." Musk holds over 85% voting power through Class B super-voting shares (10 votes/share). Public investors combined will have 15%. What Musk Controls: - CEO removal = his consent. You can't fire him even if he destroys the company - Take business for himself. SpaceX gets a rocket deal? Musk can s…

Voting control doesn't change management's fiduciary duty to all shareholders. The founders retaining voting control has worked out fine for Alphabet shareholders.

Yeah but SpaceX says you need 3% of the company to sue, so that fiduciary duty is never going to be enforced.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#136

Post by SwellJoe »

hparadiz wrote: post #114
SwellJoe wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He doesn't actually want progress. He wants power and wealth for himself. Public transit is an equalizer, it serves normal people.

Relax man. He's a bipolar weirdo who isn't always likable but progress doesn't always come from likeable people. And the fact of the matter is he has actually delivered on a bunch of stuff I thought I'd never see in my lifetime.

What kinds of things he's delivered do you have in mind?

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#137

Post by mayama »

themafia wrote: post #84
NathanKP wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's easy to see the benefit in DC's in space if you look at a few ingredients: 1. The recent Iran drone attacks on AWS data centers 2. Growing anti-AI and anti data center sentiment at home, plus Larry Fink (ceo of Blackrock) in a recent interview being terrified of dissident groups using consumer drones to attack data centers. 3. Anthropic, Grok, and other AI vendors becoming more and more integrated into defense a…

1 -- Signal jamming exists. 2 -- Space also belongs to the citizens and not the corporations. 3 -- The defense industry is the single worst most corrupt and idiotic industry we still shackle ourselves to.

> 1 -- Signal jamming exists.

How easy is jamming starlink? I don't think it is as easy as jamming gps. As I've seen numerous warning from Russia that they providing starlink to Ukraine is bad idea. That they're going to shut it down etc. But, starlink is still being used in Ukraine.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#138

Post by wookmaster »

laichzeit0 wrote: post #94
dozerly wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s very simple. You should expect he will do whatever benefits himself.

The one thing you can say though, is that “benefits himself” does not mean: buying a super yacht, a casino, an island, etc. So yeah, he’d YOLO and do the Mars trip before any of the above. Which is what most nerds on HN would love, except their blind hatred for Musk would make them despise even that.

He’s certainly said things to deserve some hatred. I’m also lost why anyone thinks his mars trip is real. He has a long history of promising and not delivering.

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#139

Post by [deleted] »

SwellJoe wrote: post #136
hparadiz wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Relax man. He's a bipolar weirdo who isn't always likable but progress doesn't always come from likeable people. And the fact of the matter is he has actually delivered on a bunch of stuff I thought I'd never see in my lifetime.

What kinds of things he's delivered do you have in mind?

[deleted]

Re: We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued

#140

Post by SwellJoe »

NordStreamYacht wrote: post #101
SwellJoe wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also achieved Musk's actual goal: derailing and delaying mass transit initiatives, the California High-speed Rail project, in particular. He knew it was bullshit. He's dumber than most people realize, but he's not dumb enough to actually believe all the bullshit he spouts.

I don't think he's dumb at all, if what you say is correct. He wanted to block something for his own benefit and he achieved it.

He is ruthlessly cunning. Not unusual in sociopaths and narcissists.
Post reply on HN