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Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

openai.com

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Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#131
post #27

> We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. Presumably those things were harder as a charity/non-profit.

They need to financially engineer a good looking quarter beforehand. Perhaps Larry Ellison can cut them a nice quid pro quo for a few months to make OpenAI look profitable (like the SpaceX/Anthropic deal), although that's probably unlikely given the debt Oracle is taking on to build it's infra.

You mean Oracle’s customers will face when their renewal bill includes infrastructure fees.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I understand, SpaceX has been engineered such that all kinds of passive investment funds (pension funds, ETFs) will buy into it at their first rebalancing, and as such it should get a decent amount of volume after open. Having said that, it’s the company I have least faith in due to the recent acquisition of xAI / Twitter.

I heard that the rule changes which would allow SpaceX to be auto bought by those funds has been blocked, previous stock seasoning rules will apply

> the rule changes which would allow SpaceX to be auto bought by those funds has been blocked

Nothing was blocked. S&P 500 never adopted them. Influencers misunderstood what a consultation document is and presented a question as a fait accompli.

NASDAQ 100 changed its rules, as did S&P and Russell's total-market funds. But for NASDAQ 100 I'm going to go ahead and say this was a brilliant market move, since nobody ever talked about that index before this.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I understand, SpaceX has been engineered such that all kinds of passive investment funds (pension funds, ETFs) will buy into it at their first rebalancing, and as such it should get a decent amount of volume after open. Having said that, it’s the company I have least faith in due to the recent acquisition of xAI / Twitter.

[flagged]

> There was too much backlash

There wasn't. A consultation was rejected. It happens all the time. If S&P management had a say, they would have wanted SpaceX included.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the real reason. I don't think equity market has enough capital to support three companies of this size.

SpaceX IPO is slated to be $75-80bn — the market has size for that. We also have seen robust options and finance markets for AAPL and NVDA over the last years that make the broader ecosystem not overly worrying in my armchair opinion. I’m not clear how much crossover demand there is between SX and Anthropic/oAI — that seems like the more interesting question. I’m guessing if we had Anthropic/oAI launching at the same…

I was under the impression SpaceX was going to be a trillion dollar company.

The media and market is hyping these three companies up to be all trillion dollar companies.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#135

The cheap money for subsidizing tokens has begun to run out. Not all gone, yet, but it's getting harder to pretend the chatbots are cost-effective to run. Soon, they're going to need to tap a larger pool for money: Everyone's retirement accounts.

The numbers are public now, this is obviously false

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#136
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're IPOing a commercial subsidiary of OpenAI so that it can donate even more money to the parent nonprofit. (Actually the subsidiary is everything and the nonprofit is a do-nothing fig leaf but the IRS and Congress seem to not care enough to stop them.)

But then private shareholders are able to extract shareholder value from the subsidiary, so the "nonprofit" component is utterly meaningless here. How is this not illegal? What prevents any nonprofit from doing this to sidestep its filing status and extract profit?

Every step taken by the nonprofit leadership has to be, (or at least seem to be at the time), net positive for the stated goal of the nonprofit. To be legal, the IPO needs to be a net gain for the nonprofit.

It can easily be that, if they believe that the capital it raises increases the long-term value of the company by a greater multiple than the proportion of the company that is lost from the nonprofit to outside investors.

The primary example of this is Novo Nordisk (the Ozempic company). Their largest shareholder is, through an intermediary, the Novo Nordisk Foundation, which is one of the largest charities in the world. Nordisk used to be a charity that owned 100% of it's own labs and facilities, but in 1989 they realized that they were just too small, and would get trampled by larger international players without greatly increasing their scope. So they made their subsidiary go public (through a complex merger, not an IPO), and now only own 28% of it, instead of 100%. But, in large part because of the capital that going public brought them, despite constantly distributing money for research and charity, that's 28% of a company that's more than 100x bigger that what they used to be. And they retained 77% voting control.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#137
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was wondering about this the other week. Is there a chart, somewhere, like a family tree, of what the Apple and Microsoft stock "ordinary millionaires" went on to do?

we need more non tech women to marry and divorce craven tech men so that at least half of these scrooge like fortunes can get donated edit: id love to tally all the donations done by techies and compare them to how much of bezos fortune has ended up routed to charity via his ex

If you're a tech billionaire, you don't marry unless you are incredibly stupid.

Altman and Thiel are also gay, so theres that too.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#138
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They need to financially engineer a good looking quarter beforehand. Perhaps Larry Ellison can cut them a nice quid pro quo for a few months to make OpenAI look profitable (like the SpaceX/Anthropic deal), although that's probably unlikely given the debt Oracle is taking on to build it's infra.

> like the SpaceX/Anthropic deal I understand the scepticism around Google's deal with SpaceX, given the former holds a stake in the latter. But Anthropic buying SpaceX's compute doesn't have any related-party smell to it. That genuinely looks like SpaceX having cornered some valuable compute.

If you were to treat all the hyperscalars as one company with one 10-K then Anthropic buying compute from SpaceX/xAI is an internal bookkeeping transfer between two departments. It isn't the same as top-line revenue into the AI companies. It is still mostly just financing money that Anthropic raised being transferred to SpaceX.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#139
post #29

I don’t get what’s the point of non-profits if you can IPO them. How does that make any sense?

The nonprofit (OpenAI Foundation) owns ~26% of the for-profit, plus some extra warrants. The for-profit (OpenAI Group PBC) is what's filing the S-1 Draft. The OpenAI Foundation also exclusively appoints the board of the OpenAI Group PBC and can replace directors at any time. https://openai.com/our-structure/ (I work at OpenAI, but I am not a lawyer and am not speaking on behalf of OpenAI - just sharing my personal un…

> The OpenAI Foundation also exclusively appoints the board of the OpenAI Group PBC and can replace directors at any time.

Isn't it hard to write this with a straight face?

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