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Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

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Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#131

Post by PearlRiver »

fg3fg wrote: post #77
chrsw wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies only want to spend money on AI in order to save more money somewhere else. So if LLMs make some tasks easier but overall don't make a big dent on shipping dates because of all the friction points you mentioned, and more, then it will be difficult to justify buying all these tokens. Even if the shipping timelines are the same but the quality goes up that still could be hard to justify token spend too.

Earnings growth, cash flows and valuation. Thats all the management at firms care about. Sorry for all the dev's here who rant about productivity gains but forget what matters to who employs them in the first place!

The people ponying up the cash expect a return on their investment- they are not in it for the religious experience.

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#132

Post by fg3fg »

pydry wrote: post #114
fg3fg wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Earnings growth, cash flows and valuation. Thats all the management at firms care about. Sorry for all the dev's here who rant about productivity gains but forget what matters to who employs them in the first place!

Not true at all. They do care about what's fashionable and right now what is fashionable is AI. Just because they're in charge of multi billion dollar corporations doesn't mean that they don't get distracted by shiny baubles like a 3 year old or that they don't feel the pressure of being "cool" like a teenager. They're not LLMs.

[dead]

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#133

Post by conception »

Animats wrote: post #127
aresant wrote: post #66

This is an absolutely classic PR "submarine" effort to reframe the impact of AI Paul Graham has mandatory essay on this - https://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html (1) More than 50% of Americans at this point are more concerned about AI than excited for it - https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/03/12/key-findi... (2) Popular media is feeding into this zeitgeist with headlines like - "Prepare for an AI jobs ap…

Right, as noted above, last week The Economist finally said it's real. That's a reversal from their previous position. The Economist likes to look at actuals, which always trail real time, rather than projections. Now they can see it happening in past data. AI deployment is going much faster than previous industrial revolutions, such as railroads and tractors and even computers. When these things take a generation, t…

Climate change for the economy. With a similar lack of action before everything is terrible I’m sure.

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#134

Post by keybored »

Architects of misfortune telling your their maximalist ambitions isn’t bad. It’s a blessing. Now never forget their vile fantasies, even if they shy away from them and talk about giving everyone a little bit of UBI and other such HORSESHIT.

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#135

Post by PearlRiver »

citrin_ru wrote: post #47
blitzar wrote: post #7

They won't be trillionaires with that attitude. They could have kept saying the line "Ai will replace all the jobs by the end of the year " for another 20 years.

A significant job loss will trigger a deep recession which will eventually hit most AI customers so they will have too few customers to be profitable. The best (for AI business) scenario is when productivity is increased without mass unemployment.

If this means universal basic income the GOP will kill themselves in apoplectic rage!

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#136

Post by ks2048 »

dbvn wrote: post #5

the damage is done. Why did they ever think it was a good idea to brag that they were going to destroy all middle/upper class jobs?

That brag seems tame compared to saying there is a decent change they'll end the human race.

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#137

Post by jplusequalt »

ViktorRay wrote: post #125

The Industrial Revolution led to a substantial decrease in agricultural jobs for humanity. But ultimately there were new jobs created. This happens with every technological innovation. It’s called creative destruction. The idea that some technology will lead to mass unemployment and then some kind of revolution…that is a myth that’s been around since Marx. Actually even before him. I predict the same thing will happe…

>I predict the same thing will happen. Some jobs will go away. Others will take their place. The people of the 1700’s and 1800’s couldn’t have even begun to imagine the kinds of jobs many do today.

What are these jobs? I have seen this same opinion by so many, but nobody can hazard a guess what those jobs are. In the meantime, those whosw careers are caught in the blast radius of AI are putting their hope on hypothetical jobs appearing before their employers decide to replace them.

Golly, no wonder people aren't happy!

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#138

Post by shoopadoop »

keybored wrote: post #134

Architects of misfortune telling your their maximalist ambitions isn’t bad. It’s a blessing. Now never forget their vile fantasies, even if they shy away from them and talk about giving everyone a little bit of UBI and other such HORSESHIT.

Musk wants all the money, but at the same time he also says that money is passe and that you don't need to worry about retirement in the upcoming era of Amazing Abundance(TM)

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#139

Post by themafia »

aresant wrote: post #66

This is an absolutely classic PR "submarine" effort to reframe the impact of AI Paul Graham has mandatory essay on this - https://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html (1) More than 50% of Americans at this point are more concerned about AI than excited for it - https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/03/12/key-findi... (2) Popular media is feeding into this zeitgeist with headlines like - "Prepare for an AI jobs ap…

Is what the architects believe informed by reality or by dreams of profit? Why even account for them if you can't define this?

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#140

Post by bayarearefugee »

pessimizer wrote: post #95
beepbopboopp wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think there is even a 2% chance you're going to need a government bailout over the next decade, you simply cant be calling your product the grim reaper.

Especially when the chance they'll get that bailout is around 99.9999999%. That bag has already been got. Doesn't matter if AI ultimately turns out to be useless for anything but children's toys because the productivity it adds to IT work is exactly offset by the amount of bugs it both adds and has to find. The psychopaths that are pushing it will be arguing over who gets to be president of the world in 2044. This ar…

> The psychopaths that are pushing it will be arguing over who gets to be president of the world in 2044. This arguing will not be done in any public forum, but over a grouptext.

I don't think arguing will be the method that decides it.

There's at least one of them who is openly talking about how important it is for him to have control over a large robot army (and I'm sure several more are thinking similar thoughts, just not blurting them out on social media).

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