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Where does next-token prediction leave us?

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Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#131

Post by cyclopeanutopia »

dyauspitr wrote: post #57
overgard wrote: post #40

I have a more depressing theory. I think class is part of it, but I'm starting to suspect that a shockingly large number of people lack the critical thinking skills needed to think out the implications of this stuff. I say that because I've met so many people of the managerial class that seem to think it's going to replace the annoying people they have to pay, but somehow they don't think it's going to come for them…

[flagged]

So you expect everyone to be a selfless hero who puts AI progress over lives of their own and their families?

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#132

Post by red75prime »

overgard wrote: post #40

I have a more depressing theory. I think class is part of it, but I'm starting to suspect that a shockingly large number of people lack the critical thinking skills needed to think out the implications of this stuff. I say that because I've met so many people of the managerial class that seem to think it's going to replace the annoying people they have to pay, but somehow they don't think it's going to come for them…

Correct me if I wrong, up to 40% of Roman citizens were on "welfare". This, at least, shows that it's not impossible to have a functioning society with a large percentage of people who only contribute political activity.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#133

Post by soco »

zozbot234 wrote: post #130
gspr wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That kind of thinking might work if 1, or 5, or 10% lose their income. If 50% do, there's revolution. And that's not great for anyone, including plumbers and doctors.

We will never see 50% of people lose their income, they'll just gradually transition into newer AI-powered roles. Their income will grow rather than shrink. The people who are at risk of losing their income will be those who reject working with AI entirely, but that's because they will be gradually made uncompetitive.

What are these newer AI-powered roles? Let's get to the specifics, please. I'm open to transition, or learn new, give me please a few starting points. I know AI and agents and skills.md already, so let's skip the basics, indicate me a few new jobs I could take.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#134

Post by birdland »

What are these complaints really other than "I had a nice position in the previous system and I'm afraid of losing it"? Many felt disposable and not valued already, maybe it was a good system for you but not for many. You have a valued skill and you enjoy working in a field using that skill, well for 90+% of people that isn't what work is, you're lamenting the loss of something that the vast majority never had access to in the first place. What exactly is so great about our current predicament that it needs to be protected from new technology?

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#135

Post by soco »

weatherlite wrote: post #101
Gigachad wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you are a plumber and we don’t automate plumbing, you’ll have half the population displaced and switching to plumbing. Everything that isn’t automated will be over saturated.

Will so many people switch to plumbing though ? Really depends on how old you are when you get canned (I don't think its realistic for most 40 year olds to start a plumbing career), how good you are with your hands and physical things and whether you can survive the switch psychologically; I don't see many investment bankers or software devs survive such a switch. I'm 42, even if I was very good with my hands (which…

So people will not all switch to plumbing, indeed. But then to what? There's only so much need for tattoo artists and geriatric care - which your customers must also afford to pay.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#136

Post by soco »

jusssi wrote: post #129
selcuka wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the point. Plumbers will be broke, too, because people who are supposed to hire them will not have jobs.

When we continue this line of thought far enough, we get to ask who's going to pay for the hardware and the electricity to run the AI that's taking all the jobs.

This is exactly the missing long-term perspective. All AI creators are focused either on the projected wins or the shiny technology, ignoring societal effects. Not that they should, they are engineers or MBAs after all, but somebody should. Somebody like us, or better somebody with better reach and better knowledge, should figure out a way to offer a future also to former clerks.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#137

Post by dminik »

brabel wrote: post #100
kqr wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of today, "minor expert" is the wrong way to phrase it. The flagship LLMs today are at best at an initiate or apprentice level in every field.[1] This is not meant as a derisive remark – having something at hand that is initiate level in every field is remarkable and useful. But it's nowhere near expertise anywhere. [1]: https://entropicthoughts.com/stop-using-junior-and-senior

You seriously think current LLM is just at apprentice level in programming? It can write stuff one shot that I’d expected even some experts to struggle to do even with ample more time allowed.

Kind of, yeah. LLMs are hyperoptimized for one-shotting. But all of their code is like that. It's poison for the long term health of the codebase.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#138

Post by energy123 »

Melamune wrote: post #75

LLMs reveal an important truth that we were already deeply aware of. With this cognitive offloading, the interests that drive us lose their meaning. If friction disappears, there is no longer any desire, pleasure, longing, obstacle, or demand. It is indolence, and it goes by the name of apathy. All these promises without even reaching an ideal! Could it simply be that this ideal is becoming impoverished? The prevaili…

These things are biologically/neurologically caused. They're adaptations that worked well in our ancestral environment (effort -> reward = satisfaction, stress = effort) which are now possibly becoming maladaptations. We won't be the first organism to experience this (likely unfortunate) transition. What's concerning is that it usually precipitates something bad like large genetic alterations through natural selection or the simple elimination of the organism from certain environments (like fireflies near cities).

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#139

Post by reverius42 »

mazurnification wrote: post #78
suzzer99 wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The billionaires building doomsday bunkers get it.

No they do not - sheltering make sense only if there is anything worth waiting for on the other side.

Yeah, seems like a big downgrade to go from being a billionaire in society to a nobody in a bunker with no society waiting for you outside the bunker.

Re: Where does next-token prediction leave us?

#140

Post by dsego »

brabel wrote: post #100
kqr wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of today, "minor expert" is the wrong way to phrase it. The flagship LLMs today are at best at an initiate or apprentice level in every field.[1] This is not meant as a derisive remark – having something at hand that is initiate level in every field is remarkable and useful. But it's nowhere near expertise anywhere. [1]: https://entropicthoughts.com/stop-using-junior-and-senior

You seriously think current LLM is just at apprentice level in programming? It can write stuff one shot that I’d expected even some experts to struggle to do even with ample more time allowed.

They will one shot with bunch of duplicated code, somehow they will just omit basic things, like security middleware. It will all kind of work. But then you make additional passes to do review and clean up, suddenly there is a lot more work to make it half decent.
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