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Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

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Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#131

Post by Terr_ »

cameldrv wrote: post #97
ericmay wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you could make a case in separating the two, of course opening further discussion, but because sports betting takes place in a comparatively very controlled environment I think the risk profile is pretty different versus, idk, betting that the temperate will be at or above a certain point and then someone sticks a hair dryer on the thermostat[1]. Cheating can happen in sports of course, but the risk profile a…

The environments of various bets have varying degrees of "control" from insider trading. I wouldn't say that sports is more controlled than most other environments. Point shaving scandals are certainly as old as college sports. The real question is what the purpose of prediction markets are. For sports, there isn't really much of a purpose to the markets except entertainment for the bettors, and harvesting cash for t…

I think the argument for hedging is further weakened by how large actors have other (better?) ways to hedge, such as with futures contracts or insurance policies.

Those may have the added benefit of protecting you from price changes. If I need widgets and I'm worried a geopolitical event will disrupt supply, the money from a "won" bet might be minimal compared to the new costs as everyone raises the price of widgets.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#132

Post by michaefe »

yieldcrv wrote: post #129
michaefe wrote: post #127

While it's obviously sports betting, the fact is that federal law gives the CFTC the power to determine what is and isn't a future and expressly preempts state intervention in futures markets. And, the case as to why futures markets generally should be subject only to federal oversight is quite strong IMO. So, the case can quickly become whether or not the CFTC should consider sports betting to be a future, and judge…

90% agree, the CFTC doesn't consider these futures contracts, it regulates them under its "contract market" authority, that Congress designated and updated periodically over time This is the authority on the CFTC's own website on prediction markets "For more information" section https://www.cftc.gov/LearnandProtect/PredictionMarkets https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?hl=false&edition=prelim&... And yes, both the Sup…

Oh interesting, I didn't know that about the contract market authority.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#133

Post by lelandfe »

superfrank wrote: post #121
mayneack wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguing over implementation details is a pretty common thing for laws to do. Maybe it would weaken the logical consistency of their laws, but that's not really a thing that matters. Why do states allow hunting some animals and not others? Why do states distinguish between different forms of income to tax? It's all implementation details.

I wasn't saying we shouldn't debate the implementation details. I just think they should be separate arguments. It's like if someone killed my dog with 3d printed gun and so everyone started talking about banning or regulating 3d printers. It's like, yes, debating 3d printer regulation is probably a worthwhile debate to have, but regardless of where we end up on that it doesn't change the fact that that person killed…

> any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details

I think their point was that your "going to struggle to argue a case" belief does not logically follow from a need to argue "over implementation details"

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#134

Post by striking »

_--__--__ wrote: post #76
overgard wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think sports betting is a lot less harmful than prediction markets. With sports betting if someone throws a game to get a pay day, for instance, the only real consequence is on the reputation of the sport. In prediction markets, people can do all sorts of awful things to make money as insiders..

Most available data suggests that sports betting is much worse for the people making the bets, as it better targets people with poor impulse control. Bad bets in political markets aren't causing measurable increases in bankruptcy and domestic violence rates ( https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-online-sports-gambling-exp... ).

I don't think that article supports your claim that bad bets in political markets aren't causing measurable increases in bankruptcy and domestic violence rates. It only tells us about online sportsbetting, and it was written in 2024 before prediction markets really took off. If anything, it provides evidence weakly in favor of the argument that bad bets in political markets would negatively affect the bettors.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#135

Post by nojito »

superfrank wrote: post #83
overgard wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think sports betting is a lot less harmful than prediction markets. With sports betting if someone throws a game to get a pay day, for instance, the only real consequence is on the reputation of the sport. In prediction markets, people can do all sorts of awful things to make money as insiders..

First, over 90% of the wagers on Polymarket and Kalshi are already on sports (quoting John Oliver's Last Week Tonight on that one). Despite the headlines, Kalshi and Polymarket are mainly just sportsbooks. Second, while yes, some of the markets available on prediction markets can push people to do awful things, there are plenty that are harmless. I'm cherry picking to make an extreme point, but I would so much rather…

>Kalshi and Polymarket are mainly just sportsbooks.

How? They sell contracts between two users. One side each. Completely different from a sportsbook where users are betting that the lines they set are not correct.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#137

Post by RajT88 »

_--__--__ wrote: post #76
overgard wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think sports betting is a lot less harmful than prediction markets. With sports betting if someone throws a game to get a pay day, for instance, the only real consequence is on the reputation of the sport. In prediction markets, people can do all sorts of awful things to make money as insiders..

Most available data suggests that sports betting is much worse for the people making the bets, as it better targets people with poor impulse control. Bad bets in political markets aren't causing measurable increases in bankruptcy and domestic violence rates ( https://thezvi.substack.com/p/the-online-sports-gambling-exp... ).

I live in IL, and digital slots have taken over so many spaces. Online sports betting is bad enough, but more than that is going on.

Not just bars, but restaurants. Places you might take a date for nice Italian food have little corners with digital slots. Gas stations, Taco joints, sometimes an entire business in a strip mall dedicated to digital slots.

It's insane. The only place like it I'd seen prior to a some years back was Nevada. Businesses must be making crazy money off of them to be so prolific in putting them in, and that money comes from somewhere (i.e. not likely to be casual players).

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#138

Post by nojito »

jeltz wrote: post #110
nojito wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s no “house” or “book” aspect to Kalshi. They are nothing more than contracts that are bought and sold between individuals.

Have you heard of Betfair? A UK company which has done "prediction markets" since 2000. In the Europe it is called a betting exchange and regulated like sports betting. And betting pools is another form of betting which is way older than that and there are no house in them either. And by your argument poker or backgammon would not be gambling either.

>And by your argument poker or backgammon would not be gambling either.

They aren't. A sportsbook explicitly sets lines and you are betting that the line they set is incorrect.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#139

Post by nojito »

jeltz wrote: post #112
nojito wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A different entity provides liquidity. There’s no house like in sportsbooks.

And there is no house in pool betting, poker or backgammon either. We still count all of them including betting exchanges (what has now been rebranded as prediction markets) are still normally regulated as gambling.

Not in the US.

Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

#140

Post by nozzlegear »

sergiotapia wrote: post #46

There should be a ban on the instagram reels showing gambling like it's not a big deal. They are deliberately targeting teens and it's quite sickening. If you work at one of these companies it's the same as working for a payday loan company. You are making blood money.

I recently learned that a World of Warcraft AWC champion that I used to follow has been streaming slots on Twitch for hours a day, every day for the last year. I don't watch Twitch, so I was blown away that they allow that kind of thing on their platform. The cherry on top is that he runs some kind of fake gambling extension in his chat while he's streaming, where viewers bet on how much money he'll win or lose and they'll win or lose Twitch chat points alongside him.
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