Live data from Hacker News

Apocalypse Early Warning System

ews.kylemcdonald.net

131–137 of 137 posts

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#131
post #39

Pinging weather stations should be a good indicator. If you notice a bunch of contiguous ones no longer responding, or sending back huge temperature readings, there's a good chance a nuclear apocalypse is imminent. (Just ignore the few statistical outliers: https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/23/europe/france-weather-sensor-... )

> there's a good chance a nuclear apocalypse is imminent. Or that an excavator took out some fiber.

Except that taking out fiber won't generally result in a roughly circular shape of lost signals, with the ones still remaining on the fringes giving readings that off the charts.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#132
post #119
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is meant to detect insider knowledge of imminent risk of a nuclear attack. It's not meant to detect if nukes are already inbound.

Unless the prez misses the nurse button and hits nuke

Great land of confusion reference!

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#133
post #122
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Insiders. Most rich people work in cities. They will want to get to their hideaways quickly.

> Most rich people work in cities. People with private plane wealth aren't going into work near a potential nuclear strike target when nuclear war is imminent.

They are living in the city and working there. They find out about a threat, earlier than others. They leave.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#134
post #3

Fun idea of a metric, but if I'm reading this correctly, we get roughly one apocalypse warning per year? > Level 5 is calibrated so only the highest daily peak in the trailing year should exceed it.

I would like to see the backtest on this tool- what were the most recent dates that were Level 5, 4, 3 and 2?

scroll down to "Traffic Archive", select "1 month" and drag the slider while checking the "Historical Emergency Level" plot.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're talking about nuclear war, I don't think you could expect Polymarket to pay out in the aftermath. So anyone betting on one would be pretty dumb.

I think that GP is saying that recent betting market developments provide evidence that Trump or someone high up in the administration is tipping off others. Therefore, one might think that the 'in' crowd would be tipped off about an apocalyptic event, which would trigger this software. I don't think that GP was saying anything about betting on an apocalyptic event.

That's completely right, thanks for the help clarifying!

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#136
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would like to see the backtest on this tool- what were the most recent dates that were Level 5, 4, 3 and 2?

scroll down to "Traffic Archive", select "1 month" and drag the slider while checking the "Historical Emergency Level" plot.

Awesome great update

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, there's a fucking giant very busy revolving door between the federal government and the private sector. Those people have connections, but they are also able interpret open source intelligence signals and their implications in a way that most of us can't, because we don't know the internal machinery. In fact, most big banks and other big companies have retired defense and intelligence people explicitly working…

I guess when you grow up, you figure out the internal machinery isn't as interesting as your imagination thinks it is. And also that somehow the people involved are part of some secret network that has the ability to keep the truth from you. That's some good old fashioned 90s x-files mentality.

It’s not a secret, or something you need to grow up to understand, ya condescending prick.

It’s (often unspoken) quid pro quo.

Like getting years of millions of dollars in speaking deals from corps after a favorable administration.

I noticed you had no retort for my other (name dropping) reply…

Post reply on HN