Pinging weather stations should be a good indicator. If you notice a bunch of contiguous ones no longer responding, or sending back huge temperature readings, there's a good chance a nuclear apocalypse is imminent. (Just ignore the few statistical outliers: https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/23/europe/france-weather-sensor-... )
> there's a good chance a nuclear apocalypse is imminent. Or that an excavator took out some fiber.
Apocalypse Early Warning System
131–137 of 137 posts
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#132Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#133Earlier quoted context omitted.
Insiders. Most rich people work in cities. They will want to get to their hideaways quickly.
> Most rich people work in cities. People with private plane wealth aren't going into work near a potential nuclear strike target when nuclear war is imminent.
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#134Fun idea of a metric, but if I'm reading this correctly, we get roughly one apocalypse warning per year? > Level 5 is calibrated so only the highest daily peak in the trailing year should exceed it.
I would like to see the backtest on this tool- what were the most recent dates that were Level 5, 4, 3 and 2?
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you're talking about nuclear war, I don't think you could expect Polymarket to pay out in the aftermath. So anyone betting on one would be pretty dumb.
I think that GP is saying that recent betting market developments provide evidence that Trump or someone high up in the administration is tipping off others. Therefore, one might think that the 'in' crowd would be tipped off about an apocalyptic event, which would trigger this software. I don't think that GP was saying anything about betting on an apocalyptic event.
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would like to see the backtest on this tool- what were the most recent dates that were Level 5, 4, 3 and 2?
scroll down to "Traffic Archive", select "1 month" and drag the slider while checking the "Historical Emergency Level" plot.
Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System
#137Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, there's a fucking giant very busy revolving door between the federal government and the private sector. Those people have connections, but they are also able interpret open source intelligence signals and their implications in a way that most of us can't, because we don't know the internal machinery. In fact, most big banks and other big companies have retired defense and intelligence people explicitly working…
I guess when you grow up, you figure out the internal machinery isn't as interesting as your imagination thinks it is. And also that somehow the people involved are part of some secret network that has the ability to keep the truth from you. That's some good old fashioned 90s x-files mentality.
It’s (often unspoken) quid pro quo.
Like getting years of millions of dollars in speaking deals from corps after a favorable administration.
I noticed you had no retort for my other (name dropping) reply…