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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#131

Post by jmyeet »

dgrin91 wrote: post #5

My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?

The UAE has the ADCOP (Abu Dhabi Cross Oil Pipeline) to move oil to beyond the Strait. It has a capacity of ~1.8Mbpd (million barrels per day) so is only a fraction of the UAE's total oil exports and a tiny fraction of the oil exports impacted by the Strait being closed. It's also being used already. I don't know how these particular oil exports have been impacted. They are beyond the Strait but not by that much. Iran is still entirely capable of harassing shipping there.

I believe the US has given tacit approval or is behind this move entirely for what comes when the Strait inevitably reopens and that is to get the UAE to export well beyond what they might otherwise as an OPEC member.

The UAE like most GCC countries is entirely dependent on US arms to maintain their regime so I simply cannot imagine them doing this without the US putting them up to it or looking the other way.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#132

Post by cmiles8 »

The US has long sought to erode OPEC’s ability to dictate global oil prices. The US has made massive progress in being broadly energy independent to isolate it from challenges elsewhere. The US has been a net energy exporter since 2019. Global oil pricing was always an annoying thorn in that strategy.

This is an initial but big crack in shaking up global oil markets in a way that meaningfully shifts global power dynamics.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#133

Post by HDThoreaun »

HWR_14 wrote: post #102
cj wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Without a healty cartel, oil is doomed Why/how? Without a healthy cartel, wouldn't prices go down? Cheaper oil means less adoption of alternate energy sources.

A healthy cartel means consistent oil prices. Without it, oil may average cheaper over the long term (and almost certainly over the short term), but there will be a lot more variance.

Ok? If you can’t have price variance buy futures. Price variance doesn’t matter for consumers, just average price.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#134

Post by MobiusHorizons »

thaumasiotes wrote: post #118
netdur wrote: post #109

Geopolic: A US-aligned Gulf state walking away from a Saudi/Russia-led bloc in the middle of a war, after deciding the bloc didn’t really have its back Economic: it weakens OPEC’s pricing power in a way you might not see right away if Hormuz is closed, but it could really change the supply picture once things reopen

Russia-led? Russia isn't even part of OPEC.

I believe they are in opec+

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#135

Post by dcrazy »

HWR_14 wrote: post #108
TacticalCoder wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, nuclear. These are more than ripe to disrupt energy into the 21st century. Yes and we've seen negative electricity price in some EU countries a few days ago : very sunny days but not too warm, perfect for solar panels. Supply surpassing consumption: negative electricity prices. While we're, supposedly, living through an energy crisis. There may oil shipment issues and there are issue…

The problem is that grid scale power plants can't just turn on when the sun isn't shining. If the negative prices during the day and positive prices at night lead to energy storage, then it's a solution. Otherwise, it's just a glut at some times of day.

This is where grid scale batteries come in. Looking forward to that. (As long as they can avoid blowing up like the one in Monterey…)

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#136

Post by tialaramex »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #68
spacebanana7 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world will never run out oil supply, demand will likely go first. There are dozens of ways to increase production through world peace, better drilling technology and ideological conversion. Most of African production is well below geological potential (Libya being the easiest example, but also applies to Nigeria and the DRC etc). European shale is barely investigated, Russia is restricted by sanctions, the Middle…

> The world will never run out oil supply, demand will likely go first. Not sure I buy that. Oil will still be in demand as a chemical feedstock. In fact, there are already people saying that oil is too precious to use as a fuel.

Some oil fields also produce Helium. That's actually an element we don't have plenty of anyway. But most don't do that, the toxic black goop they're producing is almost all just a mess of Hydrogen + Carbon chains. Similarly "Natural gas" ie Methane is just CH4.

If we have plenty of energy anyway we can just make exactly what we need, no need to drill for a mix of pot luck hydrocarbons. If we don't have enough energy anyway then we're burning hydrocarbons to get energy and we might as well use them as a feedstock too.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#137

Post by lotsofpulp »

Havoc wrote: post #120
netdur wrote: post #109

Geopolic: A US-aligned Gulf state walking away from a Saudi/Russia-led bloc in the middle of a war, after deciding the bloc didn’t really have its back Economic: it weakens OPEC’s pricing power in a way you might not see right away if Hormuz is closed, but it could really change the supply picture once things reopen

UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan so this doesn’t read like anything US aligned to me. If anything it reads like the opposite to me - a move away from traditional opec petrodollar system

>UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan

I have read this headline dozens of times in the previous 30 years.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#138

Post by iLemming »

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, and my grandson is going to ride a camel". Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum, the former Emir of Dubai.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#139

Post by mothballed »

pjc50 wrote: post #129
mothballed wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone has a unique "..." and a nuance here and a nuance there. UAE has a unique yada yada and also ended up with a surprisingly remarkably free economic index despite being a theocratic monarchy. As did the monarchy Lichtenstein, British controlled Hong Kong, and the one-party state of Singapore (technically democratic, in practice it functions like a recallable monarchy). Also of note the three richest countries…

I'm not sure what the conclusion is from this other than that the wealthy love having an autocratic tax haven microstate to park the money they earned from liberal democracies in.

This is true, but these countries aren't doing it for the benefit of foreigners, they're doing it for the benefit of themselves.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#140

Post by Havoc »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #137
Havoc wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan so this doesn’t read like anything US aligned to me. If anything it reads like the opposite to me - a move away from traditional opec petrodollar system

>UAE announced this week they might start selling oil in yuan I have read this headline dozens of times in the previous 30 years.

I don’t think the gulf is in same as always mode right now
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