131–140 of 296 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's the opposite of a subsidy. KC stakes nothing of value and gets a defined revenue for the next 25 years.
Then why would Google mess with the bonds at all ? Again, they have the cash to buy that land and develop it without any further consideration beyond permits and planning.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The shovels and labour used to make those things where not depreciated. The GPUs are the shovels, not the project. AI at any capability will retain that capbibilty forever. It only gets reduced in value by superior developments. Which are built upon technologies that the previous generation developed.
> retain that capbibilty forever Not really. The base training data cutoff will quickly render models useless as they fail to keep up with developments. Translating some Farsi news articles about the war was hilarious, Gemini Pro got into a panic. ChatGPT either accused me of spreading fake news, or assumed this was some sort of fantasy scenario.
For coding I care mostly about reasoning ability which is uncorrelated with cut off
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We could have had non-carbon energy independence by now.
But the AI fanatics claimed that AI would solve cold fusion, making that whole thing moot. The only problem is, if AI doesn’t solve cold fusion, we’re back to square one. And a few trillion dollars in the hole.
And that point is right before rock bottom.
The US spent ~$12 trillion in ~2024 dollars on nuclear weapons between 1940 and 1996, and the vast majority of that spending was in the 1950s and early 1960s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_of_the_United_...
Does anyone have any plans for what to do with all these chips and things once they are obsolete? I can't imagine they are all just going to go to some scrap heap.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The shovels and labour used to make those things where not depreciated. The GPUs are the shovels, not the project. AI at any capability will retain that capbibilty forever. It only gets reduced in value by superior developments. Which are built upon technologies that the previous generation developed.
You need to separate training and inference usage of GPUs for this analysis.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Also railways would always have alternative uses at that time - e.g. logistics in warfare. What other uses do GPU's have that are critical...? lol In addition to your points, this is why I always laugh when people do backward comparisons. What characteristics do they share in common? Very little.
On the topic of warfare, wars are fought differently now. Compute will be mentioned in the same breath as total manufacturing output if a global war between superpowers erupts. In highly competitive industries this is already the case. Compute will be part of industrial mobilization in the same way that physical manufacturing or transportation capacity were mobilized in WWII. I’m not an expert on military computing b…
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GDP adjustments are warranted, but it is more stark than both the estimates suggest. The megaprojects of the previous generations all had decades long depreciation schedules. Many 50-100+ year old railways, bridges, tunnels or dams and other utilities are still in active use with only minimal maintenance Amortized Y-o-Y the current spends would dwarf everything at the reported depreciation schedule of 6(!) years for…
The shovels and labour used to make those things where not depreciated. The GPUs are the shovels, not the project. AI at any capability will retain that capbibilty forever. It only gets reduced in value by superior developments. Which are built upon technologies that the previous generation developed.
If anything, the GPUs are the steel that the bridge is made of. Each beam can be replaced, but if too many fail the bridge is impassible. A bridge with a 6 year lifespan for each beam is insane.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
GDP adjustments are warranted, but it is more stark than both the estimates suggest. The megaprojects of the previous generations all had decades long depreciation schedules. Many 50-100+ year old railways, bridges, tunnels or dams and other utilities are still in active use with only minimal maintenance Amortized Y-o-Y the current spends would dwarf everything at the reported depreciation schedule of 6(!) years for…
The shovels and labour used to make those things where not depreciated. The GPUs are the shovels, not the project. AI at any capability will retain that capbibilty forever. It only gets reduced in value by superior developments. Which are built upon technologies that the previous generation developed.