131–140 of 298 posts
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The whole premise of prediction markets is that the few people whose perception do match outcomes make bets to push the money-weighted average perception toward outcomes. If perceptions still don't match outcomes at that point, average return is 0 minus transactions, with high variance.
huh? that sounds like ideology and not empirical observation.
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> One loss sets you back 10-20 wins. didn't look at the numbers, but this one sentence reminds me of selling options for 'passive income' (don't do that)
I drew the same analogy. You put up $0.95, a YES gambler only puts $0.05 (ignoring spread); you're providing "insurance" in case of a YES. In theory, even if the market prices reflected the true probability of the event happening, the more expensive side should be netting some "insurance premium" on average, right? Not sure, and idk how to observe if that's happening. Polymarket is also holding onto the money in the…
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You're thinking like an engineer and making the laughable assumption that "prediction markets" are markets. It's totally unregulated with all sorts of grifts and cheats. One of the platforms was promoting a high-return bet against Rory at the Masters yesterday. You can make money off of all sorts of stuff. You can "sell" the bets, so there's lots of live pump and dump. We've gone full circle. The bookie with no neck…
Wouldn't a high-return bet against Rory make sense? He was very likely to win.
But isn’t weird the betting platform is sending an app notification saying “hey bet on this dude to win $X”?
Polymarket already has "Nothing Ever Happens" markets where you can bet on a set of events all not happening together. Because why not.
"Nothing ever happens" ETF
https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254 They admit no returns. But it does seem like a fun project and nowhere does it say anything about returns or profits so not scammy imo just funny meme backed code
So it's not a useful trading strategy. Good to know.
It might have worked out that the human tendency towards optimism biased the Yes side, but Polymarket is watched closely enough by traders that the pricing is apparently realistic.
Now if you could bet against minor crypto coins, which almost always go down... But if you could, there would be traders pricing them realistically. Everybody has analytics now, and mispriced markets are detected and exploited quickly.
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Untrue for polymarket. True for kalshi. No bookie fees on polymarket
Wow that's news to me. How does polymarket make money if not from fees?