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Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

bbc.com

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Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#131

Post by mikelitoris »

kpil wrote: post #121
thrownawaysz wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This could easily spiral out of control and cause a level of suffering across the world (esp the global south) most of us on this forum have not lived to see. Daily anxiety attack thanks. As a european I think we are way too vulnerable. Countries divided, rich getting richer, more and more poor people who can barely afford food, and that's in Europe let alone talk about what happens with the poor in Africa and Asia.…

We don't "need a global reset" It's an apocalyptical mind-bug. All times have an eschatology - ours seems to be climate collapse. It used to be nuclear war. The media is selling a story. In reality everything is still getting better. People are healthier, richer, and better off in almost every measurable way, all over the world, including Africa and Asia. Yes, there are some dark clouds. A long list. But the problems…

Buckle down and sort it = wars around the world and mass (and I mean mass) migration

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#132

Post by spwa4 »

SirensOfTitan wrote: post #104
baxtr wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the price of the blockade is as high as you outline, the price to secure the strait military might look comparatively lower. And, looking at the scenario you’re describing, it could be the most sane thing to do at this point.

The problem is that Iran can defend the strait against the world's most advanced military with drones built with commercial hardware for 30-50K per drone. And that doesn't even take into account escalation, as if the US escalates then Iran will likely start targeting critical infrastructure in the region, making the crisis worse. The US and Israel are rapidly running out of munitions, while Iran is being resupplied b…

[flagged]

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#133

Post by bombcar »

Ekaros wrote: post #128
UncleOxidant wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yeh Tsung-kuang, a professor in the Department of Engineering and System Science at National Tsing Hua University, said Taiwan's maximum LNG inventory is only 11 days but that does not mean the island will run out of fuel or face outages within that time period So he's saying they've got an 11 day supply and that they won't face any shortages during that 11 days... but what about after 11 days? I guess I'm not sure…

11 days of supply in the system. If they can afford it they can add to that with new shipments. It is not like Taiwan is blockaded. Just that global supply from single region is limited. This might be lot bigger issue if China managed blockaded Taiwan during an invasion. Or destroy port facilities sufficiently.

You need metrics to compare it over time; I only have a weeks worth of food in the house but I shop weekly kind of thing.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#134

Post by wafflemaker »

baxtr wrote: post #83
MattGaiser wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Petro is pretty much upstream of everything: plastics, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, cooking oils, lubricants, cosmetics. Dow chemical just doubled the cost of polyethylene as of April 1st. Taiwan relies on LNG for 40% of its energy production and has like 10 days of fuel left--semis are implicated. This is, on the high end, 20% of the use of fossil fuels. We overwhelmingly burn oil and gas. If we displaced the bur…

Hormuz might not matter that much in the future since Saudi and the other countries will build even more pipelines and ports which are on the other side. Short-term is dire though.

That would require some super effective anti air. Otherwise such a pipeline is an easy target.

And even the most anti air protected place on earth - Negev plant near Dimona city got hit with a warning shot. And they have 3 or 4 layers of anti air, most of them doubled (both US and Isreaeli). It's impossible to protect multiple pipelines to that extent.

And Isreal just said that they will keep attacking Iran no matter any peace deals or armistice.

The only logical course of action for Iran is to go down swinging, taking the rest of the world with them.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#135

Post by throwawaytea »

steve_adams_86 wrote: post #120
cucumber3732842 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the value of the oil goes up it becomes worth it to risk the ship. Even if you're paying to insure it there's an equilibrium point between odds and value. Obviously 50-50 doesn't pencil out at $100 or even $200 a barrel. But 1:50 might at $2xx. IDK I'm not a shipping expert.

> becomes worth it to risk the ship There are a lot of human beings on those ships. It strikes me as awful that their lives would be risked under these circumstances, and that happening wouldn't really be a proper solution to the overarching problem. It would be something of a tragedy if things got so severe that the risk was assumed worthwhile and presumably, people on board were exposed to it outside of their will…

100 people will die on American roads today, and another tomorrow. Most of them die because they commute to work because a lower paying job closer, or a smaller dwelling near their job, isn't that appealing. Another portion will die because driving aggressively and fast seemed fun. Another portion will die because they like alcohol more than safety.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#136

Post by IsTom »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #119
skybrian wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before calling it "the worst", I'd like more detail on how to do the comparison with the oil crises of the 1970's. My guess is that modern economies might be somewhat less oil-dependent than they were then, because the alternatives are more developed.

They are more developed, sure, and the US (from a US centric view) is producing a lot of oil now. However, consider that pretty much all of the goods you see in the supermarket got there via diesel (trains, semi-trucks). The percentage of semi-trucks operating on electricity is still miniscule at this point. Air transport? All petroleum. Consider also other things like fertilizers - we're heavily dependent on nitroge…

Oil going through Hormuz is 20%, not 80% of global supply. It's true that demand is pretty inelastic, but it's not like it can't be cut at all.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#137

Post by fc417fc802 »

strken wrote: post #106
lostlogin wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the war in Ukraine has kind of proven that the Europeans are not all that capable of action. It’s revealed a fair bit about America too. And this oil crisis is a fairly incredible screw up too. What did the US think would happen?

The US is a net exporter of crude oil and is positioned to meet an oil crisis better than nearly anyone else. What do you think the US government expected from this?

Being positioned to eat shit better than anyone else is still eating shit. Our economy isn't independent of the rest of the world.

Datacenter investment is currently a noticable fraction of US GDP. That's as globalized as it gets, we aren't even remotely self sufficient on that front. What happens to our economy if that segment crumbles overnight?

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#138

Post by spwa4 »

vkou wrote: post #109
baxtr wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the price of the blockade is as high as you outline, the price to secure the strait military might look comparatively lower. And, looking at the scenario you’re describing, it could be the most sane thing to do at this point.

> the price to secure the straight military might look comparatively lower. The price to secure the straight militarily is a full ground invasion of Iran . This would be done against a country four times bigger (in population and size) than Iraq, with the kind of terrain that makes Afghanistan look easily accessible, done without the help of a coalition of fools , because this isn't 2003, and nobody in Europe is very…

... and if Iran keeps raising it will eventually become the only choice available, at which point we'll do it (and can I just say the truly horrible part: ... which was going to happen at some point anyway with the islamists in power)

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#139

Post by throwawaytea »

perching_aix wrote: post #39

50L/day - with no other limits - sounds like a lot. Are there really fuel tourists coming in en masse and taking more than this? With zero tracking of enforcement whatsoever, people will just hit up a few different nearby gas stations instead of one anyways and that's it.

Hey man,sometimes you just have to drive 400 miles a day, everyday.

Re: Slovenia becomes first EU country to introduce fuel rationing

#140

Post by foxglacier »

steve_adams_86 wrote: post #120
cucumber3732842 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the value of the oil goes up it becomes worth it to risk the ship. Even if you're paying to insure it there's an equilibrium point between odds and value. Obviously 50-50 doesn't pencil out at $100 or even $200 a barrel. But 1:50 might at $2xx. IDK I'm not a shipping expert.

> becomes worth it to risk the ship There are a lot of human beings on those ships. It strikes me as awful that their lives would be risked under these circumstances, and that happening wouldn't really be a proper solution to the overarching problem. It would be something of a tragedy if things got so severe that the risk was assumed worthwhile and presumably, people on board were exposed to it outside of their will…

People kept sailing past the Houthis even though some ships got attacked. They sailed past Somali pirates too. So ships obviously tolerate some level of risk from violence.
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