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Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

bbc.com

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Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#131

Post by kortilla »

pear01 wrote: post #101
fraywing wrote: post #17

I'm growing pessimistic that this kind of activity + the egregious presidential-level crypto scams will never see justice. What's the path for that, really?

It's not that complicated. Elect a Democrat in 2028 who will nominate a strong AG, not a useless ditherer like Garland. What a disgraceful tenure he had. If he was going to take so long to bring charges he should have just avoided it. Instead he takes 3 years to bring all these charges which naturally look like election interference and as such are paused until they choke the election away and the new justice departm…

“It’s not that complicated. Give up your principles for short term house cleaning.”

People with strong political beliefs are going to turn their head to keep their side in power rather than put someone in power that will push policies they are fundamentally against.

Blagojevich was not replaced by a Republican.

At this point presidential elections are won by getting members of the other side to stay home. So encourage young people to get out and vote if you want a Democrat. Don’t waste your breath telling someone who cares about gun rights to vote for a Democrat.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#132

Post by acdha »

Bratmon wrote: post #123
smokedetector1 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is such an unserious take. Insider trading is prevalent on both sides. But the brazen daily market manipulation done by this administration is different. If you dont see that you are willingly blind

Okay enlighten me: Why is it good when Democrats insider trade but bad when Republicans take the exact same trades?

It’s not different because of who’s doing it but due to scale: creating news which steers markets is worse than trading based on insider information, and there’s a scale question as well (billions versus millions). I want them both prosecuted but in terms of priorities I’d favor the police going after armed robbers over porch thieves.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#133

Post by unyttigfjelltol »

saidnooneever wrote: post #80
inaros wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you run the numbers: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47504505 You will see, that anything else other than a ground invasion, is guaranteed to give Iran a war victory.

if a ground invasion goes they will destroy oil trade and everyone is screwed. The war should not be won. it should be ended before everyone loses.

I think you’re just seeing the logic of US defense by offense, and the reason why the excursion was launched as it was three weeks ago.

If you step back, in 1979 Iran launched a revolution that had an avowed goal of “death to America”. If the Iranians play the kinetic scenario to the bitter end, they simply are demonstrating this was not mere poetry and there never was any other off-ramp, just tactically deciding at what relative strength these two systems will collide.

So Iran loses by demonstrating irrational resolve in antisocial tactics, like firing missiles randomly at neutral neighbors, which is the same precondition you take as gating victory. Conflicts are played out in the real world specifically to resolve inconsistent modeling like this held by different sides, and all parties would be well served by finding a better way to resolve the conflicting modeling here, because the most likely scenario currently is that everyone loses.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#134

Post by kortilla »

chinathrow wrote: post #104
pear01 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that complicated. Elect a Democrat in 2028 who will nominate a strong AG, not a useless ditherer like Garland. What a disgraceful tenure he had. If he was going to take so long to bring charges he should have just avoided it. Instead he takes 3 years to bring all these charges which naturally look like election interference and as such are paused until they choke the election away and the new justice departm…

> Elect a Democrat in 2028 Does everyone still believe this will be possible/happen/allowed by the current regime?

Yes, given that there is no evidence to the contrary.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#135

Post by enaaem »

LogicFailsMe wrote: post #18
iAMkenough wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, you're right. Guess we shouldn't talk about what's happening now or do anything to address it.

Or just legalize it across the board recognizing that when only the powerful can make use of it. and we're not going to do anything about the powerful, we might as well let everyone else in on the game. That is truly my cynical mindset at this point. The degree to which my trading is regulated is beyond absurd in a market and society where things like this are allowed to happen.

The biggest issue here is not insider trading itself, but the fact that (foreign) policy is being used for insider trading.

Think of the tariff madness of last year. The biggest issue wasn't that insider billionaires were robbing outsider billionaires. The bigger issue was the massive stress small businesses had to endure, who didn't know how they were going to survive.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#136

Post by pear01 »

kortilla wrote: post #131
pear01 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that complicated. Elect a Democrat in 2028 who will nominate a strong AG, not a useless ditherer like Garland. What a disgraceful tenure he had. If he was going to take so long to bring charges he should have just avoided it. Instead he takes 3 years to bring all these charges which naturally look like election interference and as such are paused until they choke the election away and the new justice departm…

“It’s not that complicated. Give up your principles for short term house cleaning.” People with strong political beliefs are going to turn their head to keep their side in power rather than put someone in power that will push policies they are fundamentally against. Blagojevich was not replaced by a Republican. At this point presidential elections are won by getting members of the other side to stay home. So encourag…

Why are you appending a sentence I never said within your quote of my position?

Your comment reads like you are arguing with yourself. I never suggested anything to the contrary of much of what you write, so frankly I have no idea what point you are trying to make. I suggest you re-read my comment in full as I think we are predominantly in agreement.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#137

Post by kortilla »

taurath wrote: post #118
Windchaser wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most likely outcome is that they make huge paper profits that are then absolutely worthless because the dollar collapses Seems like it'd be pretty easy to diversify into inflation-protected assets after taking big profits. But I also don't see the dollar collapsing any time soon. The dollar's strength is built on the US economy, and the US economy is still one of the strongest in the world, with high productivity p…

I believe the dollars strength is built on its unassailability as the petrodollar and foreign reserve currency, which lets the fed set interest rates and print money while creating less inflation than any other currency. The world looks very very different when energy markets aren’t fulfilled in dollars in ways that most citizens won’t understand.

That’s false. The petrodollar is irrelevant because two non-US companies trading using an intermediate currency like the USD create a balanced buy and sell of the intermediary.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#139

Post by johngossman »

d1sxeyes wrote: post #89
bushbaba wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That assumes the new system will be better. History tells us otherwise

Almost every new system of governance has been better than what came before.

"Almost every" is a very strong statement. But even granted that, the interregnum periods (civil wars and revolutions) tend to be so horrific that they are wise to avoid. In fact, people like Plato, Machiavelli, and Hobbes who lived through revolutions tended to come to the cynical conclusion that any system of government was better than a civil war. I don't agree with that conclusion, but I'd rather see the system reform itself than jump immediately to "tear up the constitution and start over"

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#140

Post by underlipton »

0xffff2 wrote: post #86
stackghost wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We need a new governance framework in the US. And what does that new framework look like to you?

Not GP, but I think there are a few things that could be done either through a complete re-write of the constitution or through amendments if that process somehow becomes tenable again. 1. Massively increase the size of congress. Modern technology makes this feasible in a way that it wasn't when the size was capped. More congress critters means it's harder to buy off a majority of them. 2. Re-write the first amendmen…

1 is something I've been saying for a while. One rep for every 35k residents was the count at one point, right? I hear it's something like one for every 800k now. And constituency shouldn't be based on geography; if the most important issue to me is whatever, I should be able to fill my ranked-choice ballot with candidates that support Whatever. We can work out the mechanics, but the point would be to have a legislative body where each rep had 35k distinct names behind them.

2 is dicey and I would like to try campaign finance reform first.

I don't want to throw everything out because that's how you get slavery and The Handmaid's Tale. At the same time, I'll gladly acknowledge that a lot of our institutions were rotten from the founding and to their core, and their dismantling maybe not necessary but certainly suitable for a reborn America that leaves much of its baggage behind.

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