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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#131

Post by pocksuppet »

input_sh wrote: post #106
quacked wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The frustrating thing about the empire collapse is that it doesn't need to happen. There are still tons of highly energized and ostensibly disciplined and competitive people here. It's just that the production base was sold off to foreign lands and the aesthetic and moral project of "America" was effectively discontinued, for reasons unclear.

I would argue the empire already collapsed, about a year ago when DOGE was tasked with killing every form of soft power that were put in place to present the country in the best possible light across the world. Even with tons of talented and well-intentioned people and everyone fully aligned to re-build everything broken, it'd take decades to rebuild that trust that was lost in a matter of weeks.

The first sign many Roman citizens had that their empire had collapsed is when a bridge near them fell down and nobody showed up to repair it.

America's been in that mode for a long time.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#132

Post by pocksuppet »

cyanydeez wrote: post #59
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

Sure, but thetes a sizeable diffetence when skewed data becomes no-data. Context has power. Removing it is thining the herd of power.

I say removing skewed data forces people to confront reality as it actually is.

Instead of "This economy sucks!" "Yeah, but look at the data, it's getting better..."

Now we just have "This economy sucks!" "Yeah"

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#133

Post by pocksuppet »

tehjoker wrote: post #89
varispeed wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

We are tightly integrated with Israel, joined at the hip, but you realize we are at war with Russia right? If we were controlled by Russia, we would not be at war with them.

Are you? You're about to remove sanctions on them, not because they agreed to peace, because you destroyed your own other options (the Persian Gulf).

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#134

Post by text0404 »

kittikitti wrote: post #77

People in Florida, when I tell them about my background working with data, often scoff and claim that the data can be changed to spread lies. They have a government who arrested a data scientist when she published information about Coronavirus. This is prevalent across all of America, especially after DOGE, who encourage fraud so the data supports their political interests. I think the reliability problem is very bad…

Can you tell us a bit more about the gag orders? I find it fascinating that all the discussion about climate change has largely disappeared after LLMs became mainstream, and the idea that state actors may be suppressing data is equally fascinating/terrifying.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#135

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

ordu wrote: post #31
gambiting wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>Europe won't be able to catch that. If we cut the chip supply right as things take off, China might not either. My immediate thought is - why is it a race. Like holy shit imagine if we could actually work together instead of having this mentality of "if we work hard the other countries won't catch that". As someone who grew up in the golden age of globalization and rise of the information superhighway, the way coun…

People tend to choose extremes. Either a total globalization or zero-sum games only. Everything in between bears risks of a cognitive overload so should be avoided at all costs.

> People tend to choose extremes.

Corporations, along with greedy, selfish people and also perhaps ignorant people too, tend to choose extremes.

The rest of us are remarkably good at compromising and finding common ground.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#136

Post by svnt »

_heimdall wrote: post #112
jeffbee wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your comment is broadly misleading. In fact, I would say that "shadow stats" guys like you have enabled the destruction of the system by creating the space to cast doubt on the valid methods used by BLS. BLS unemployment metrics have a valid basis and where they differ from Eurostat those differences are minor and with rational basis (such as 16 vs. 15 year old starting age).

It is tough, though, for me to fully buy labor statistics when it has become the norm recently for them to be revised down. This spans back into Biden's term as well so it isn't one party either. With a valid measure I would expect a roughly even distribution over time between underestimates and overestimates. For a valid measure worth considering I'd also expect the stat to be released later when revisions are less…

That is a reasonable position, however the assumption that it is the administration that is gaming them vs other motivated parties is open for discussion.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#137

Post by iugtmkbdfil834 »

patmorgan23 wrote: post #127
iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't tell if you are serious or not. Lets assume for a moment that there was once a benefit to BLS survey methodology ( I would argue otherwise, but w/e ). Is it a good methodology today? So my main argument ( and frankly the only argument that should matter ) is that is a bad fit for the goal of estimating values ( even though we do know its failure modes ). Is that not enough?

What are the alternatives, and do other countries labor statistics agencies use them?

Alternative is to build something better. Just about anything is better than the current survey system. What I would propose is something akin to "derived real-data unemployment system". All this data exists now, but is distributed. It can be stitched together, but if one was so inclined.

No, it doesn't mean I am wrong.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#138

Post by silvestrov »

specproc wrote: post #102
looksjjhg wrote: post #7

It’s amazing and terrifying watching an empire die

I spent a fair bit of time in the former Soviet Union, what happened there is instructive for what comes next. I think we will see, across the West broadly, to varying extents: - peripheral states flipping (e.g., Baltics) - widespread looting of public assets, a new oligarchal class minted - total destruction of the middle class, particularly those with ties to government and NGOs (I'm in this camp and miserable for…

> peripheral states flipping (e.g., Baltics)

This is already happening with trade (e.g. soy beans) and with military purchases.

Canada is moving quickly with moving trade elsewhere.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#139

Post by bborud »

iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #96
culi wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. The super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prep... > They started out innocuously and predictably enough. Bitcoin or ethereum? Virtual reality or augmented reality? Who will get quantum computing first, China or Google? Eventually, they edged into their real topic of concern: New Zealand or Alaska? Which region would be less affected…

As a statist, I personally always found it as a fascinating way to look at the future. They are actively preparing for a collapse they themselves are ushering.

I recently saw “Mountainhead”. Apropos.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#140

Post by sieabahlpark »

varispeed wrote: post #79
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

[flagged]

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