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Most of the US economy is in a recession

businessinsider.com

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Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#131

Post by stephen_g »

donavanm wrote: post #102
dzonga wrote: post #80

that's pretty obvious to everyone in the US what's not obvious to most people - is how e.g other countries that are already struggling will get into deeper depths e.g UK where cost of energy was super high. UK is not bombing Iran, but their economy will cry more than the US what's not obvious is how a few oil Barrons will make so much money in the next few weeks e.g those in Texas - their great grand-children will ne…

> if you're in the UK, Middle East, Australia (food is about to become more expensive & tricky) Australias not in a terrible position. We produce ~50% of our NPK fertilizers used, and this is down primarily because were importing more from places with cheaper/distant environmental impact. Conversely, IIRC, UK and Ineos just shut down their significant last fertilizer plant and the north sea fields is its own thing. S…

We are vulnerable in Australia though because we have to move food large distances from farms to cities and are unusually road-dependent for those kind of distances (most countries use much more freight rail). Large diesel price rises are going to be extremely painful for us.

And electricity and manufacturing too, since we have no real gas reservation policy and the exporters were allowed to build enough capacity to export basically every single joule of gas that we produce (and they pay a fraction of the royalties that countries like Qatar rake in). So locals and local businesses pay very high prices so the gas companies can export most of our supply overseas...

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#132

Post by tartoran »

tastyface wrote: post #122
vrosas wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mojtaba will be dead within a month. What would it say about the entire operation if they just backed off and let Khamenei’s son take over?

I imagine much of US/Israeli intel has been burned on the initial strike, and it's not that hard to hide someone in a bunker at the end of the day.

Seeme like Israel has very strong intel in Iran though. Not sure they got burned, they seem to have infiltrated deeply into Iran. Remains to be seen how it plays out in the end.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#133

Post by cassepipe »

bluegatty wrote: post #82
_heimdall wrote: post #42

The most compelling hypothesis I've heard for why Iran is bombing GC neighbors is in an attempt to pop the AI bubble. I obviously don't know if that's true, but that would be extremely clever and this article shows how effective it could be.

The gulf states are US allies that can much more easily be hit + cause damage. They are Iran's regional enemies, that the US is effectively defending them from. Spooking the their leaders + population puts a huge amount of pressure on Trump. Iran has been successful in hitting Patriot and THAAD radars, those are massively expensive, years to replace. If those go down, then Iran can 'terrorize' the region at will incl…

Can't China negotiate with Iran safe passage for its own oil only?

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#134

Post by SlinkyOnStairs »

amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

> people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

You've got it the wrong way around.

People are desperate to explain why their experience of the economy; Which for most people is "not good", doesn't match the formal economic metrics and definitions of a "recession". Constant layoffs, horrible job market, even worse housing market, and the lingering inflation.

The other half of this is of course, the bubble. Everyone knows AI is a bubble. Everyone knows that sometime soon, Nvidia & friends are going to come crashing down. AI may be the future, but people don't have the trillions of dollars burning holes in their pockets to justify these valuations. Even AI execs are openly admitting there's a bubble.

So there's heightened interest in the economy minus AI; What are things going to look like without the bubble? How much is AI hype propping up the economic indicators, if not the economy as a whole?

The alarm being that the answers are "bad" and "a lot" respectively. While direct AI investment spending has a limited effect, so much of the US' spending is driven by those whose money is from assets (the rich and the retired), that the stock market's soaring has an outsized impact. And when the bubble bursts, the stock market crashes, and that spending vanishes.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#135

Post by XorNot »

nradov wrote: post #38
ghaff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people need those delivery services? Why can't they just cook meals at home like most people do?

Or just go pick up your own take-out food. Like do these customers not have working cars or even bicycles? I understand that there are customers who are stuck at home due to disability or caregiver responsibilities but those are a tiny niche. I've seen able-bodied young people spending a fortune on delivery services, which is just stupid.

Delivery services are more efficient then having the same customer base all drive to the restaurant. Unless it's in walking distance, one driver can service many people using a lot less resources.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#136

Post by jmward01 »

amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

Our public discourse is focused mainly on 'things are terrible because of the other person'. MAGA shows this since it is predicated purely on this concept. You can only make something great again if it isn't great now. The challenge is that yelling it just to make the other person look bad hides when it actually happens and makes avoiding it hard since you are taking the wrong actions at the wrong time.

Even if we are in a recession, we need to start fostering looking towards the future. Not just trying to 'fix' things, but actually looking towards doing new big things. As John Green might say, there are two basic ways you can make the world better. You can decrease the suck or increase the awesome. I take this to imply that if you only decrease the suck then you can never be better than you were. It may be necessary but you also need to increase the awesome to keep growing and America hasn't been focused on the awesome for a while now. Let's increase the awesome even if there is suck still around.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#137

Post by throwawaysleep »

gerdesj wrote: post #67
throwawaysleep wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

About 80% of oil is burned in some way for fuel.

What on earth does that mean?

We burn 80% of the oil we take out of the ground. Oil production could drop 80% and we would not have to change anything other than demand for burning it.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#138

Post by tartoran »

cassepipe wrote: post #133
bluegatty wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gulf states are US allies that can much more easily be hit + cause damage. They are Iran's regional enemies, that the US is effectively defending them from. Spooking the their leaders + population puts a huge amount of pressure on Trump. Iran has been successful in hitting Patriot and THAAD radars, those are massively expensive, years to replace. If those go down, then Iran can 'terrorize' the region at will incl…

Can't China negotiate with Iran safe passage for its own oil only?

Not very likely. If only China bound oil passes through the strait all others would oppose, even destroy the tankers.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#139

Post by orwin »

arrowsmith wrote: post #114
dzonga wrote: post #80

that's pretty obvious to everyone in the US what's not obvious to most people - is how e.g other countries that are already struggling will get into deeper depths e.g UK where cost of energy was super high. UK is not bombing Iran, but their economy will cry more than the US what's not obvious is how a few oil Barrons will make so much money in the next few weeks e.g those in Texas - their great grand-children will ne…

> UK where cost of energy was super high “Was”?

Probably missing 'already', that's how I understood the sentence.
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