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The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

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Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#131

Post by sulam »

fwipsy wrote: post #89
0xbadcafebee wrote: post #22

AGI isn't going to happen within the next 30 years so this is moot. The actual researchers have said so many times. It's only the business people and laypeople whooping about AGI always being imminent. You cannot get real, actual AGI (the same ability to perform tasks as a human) without a continuous cycle of learning and deep memory, which LLMs cannot do. The best LLM "memory" is a search engine and document summari…

Given how many "fundamental" limitations of AI have been resolved within the past few years, I'm skeptical. Even if you're right, I am not sure that the limitations you identified matter all that much in practice. I think very few human engineers are working on problems which are so novel and unique that AIs cannot grasp them without additional reinforcement learning. > it will delete all the files in "X/" How many "…

Sorry, but you're mistaking outputs with process. If you actually know what models are doing under the hood to product output that (admittedly) looks very convincing, you'll quickly realize that they are simply exceptionally good at statistically predicting the next token in a stream of tokens. The reason you are having to become an expert at context engineering, and the reason the labs still hire engineers, is because turning next token prediction into something that can simulate general intelligence isn't easy.

The boundaries of these systems is very easy to find, though. Try to play any kind of game with them that isn't a prediction game, or perhaps even some that are (try to play chess with an LLM, it's amusing).

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#133

Post by esafak »

ronnier wrote: post #117
esafak wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd rather get shot by domestic bots first?

We have nukes, missiles, bombs, all capable of mass widespread death. Should we give those up too and just let adversaries be the only ones in possession of these types of weapons?

Autonomous robots are one of the adversaries. They're their own side.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#136

Post by [deleted] »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #22

AGI isn't going to happen within the next 30 years so this is moot. The actual researchers have said so many times. It's only the business people and laypeople whooping about AGI always being imminent. You cannot get real, actual AGI (the same ability to perform tasks as a human) without a continuous cycle of learning and deep memory, which LLMs cannot do. The best LLM "memory" is a search engine and document summari…

[deleted]

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#137

Post by rishabhaiover »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #22

AGI isn't going to happen within the next 30 years so this is moot. The actual researchers have said so many times. It's only the business people and laypeople whooping about AGI always being imminent. You cannot get real, actual AGI (the same ability to perform tasks as a human) without a continuous cycle of learning and deep memory, which LLMs cannot do. The best LLM "memory" is a search engine and document summari…

I don't agree. The recent emergent behavior displayed by LLMs and test-time scaling (10x YoY revenue for Anthropic) is worth some hype. Of course, you are correct that most people who rally behind AGI do not understand the fundamental limitations of next-token prediction.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#138

Post by kakacik »

fwipsy wrote: post #89
0xbadcafebee wrote: post #22

AGI isn't going to happen within the next 30 years so this is moot. The actual researchers have said so many times. It's only the business people and laypeople whooping about AGI always being imminent. You cannot get real, actual AGI (the same ability to perform tasks as a human) without a continuous cycle of learning and deep memory, which LLMs cannot do. The best LLM "memory" is a search engine and document summari…

Given how many "fundamental" limitations of AI have been resolved within the past few years, I'm skeptical. Even if you're right, I am not sure that the limitations you identified matter all that much in practice. I think very few human engineers are working on problems which are so novel and unique that AIs cannot grasp them without additional reinforcement learning. > it will delete all the files in "X/" How many "…

Well, llms are way more stupid, doing things that even most juniors wouldn't do (and then you don't give PROD access to new junior hire, do you... most people are super careful with llms and simply don't trust them and don't let them anywhere near critical infra or data - thats seniority 101).

Which fundamental limitation do you mean? I haven't seen anything but slow, iterative improvements. Sure, if feels fine, turtle can eventually do 10,000 mile trek but just because its moving left and right feet and decreasing the distance doesn't mean its getting there anytime soon.

Parent mentioned way harder hurdles than iterative increments can tackle, rather radical new... everything.

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#139

Post by slavik81 »

trollbridge wrote: post #108
nerdsniper wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> which is like having someone take an entire physics course, writing down everything they learn on post-it notes, then you ask a different person a physics question, and that different person has to skim all the post-it notes, and then write a new post-it note to answer you This is the best summary of an LLM that I’ve ever seen (for laypeople to “get it”) and is the first that accurately describes my experience. I w…

A layperson analogy I use is that an LLM is like Dora with a really high IQ - it effectively needs everything reexplained to it, and you can’t give it more than a few seconds of context before it just forgets.

Do you mean Dory, the fish from Finding Nemo?

Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines

#140

Post by _DeadFred_ »

qwerpy wrote: post #95
user3939382 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes we should dispense with ethics so we can win at all costs. Like your point isn’t invalid but what’s the point of restating something akin to the trolley problem but this time, as if the answer is obvious.

We can debate philosophy while our adversaries use any means at their disposal. Or we can invest in different ideas, see what works, and choose the best option.

What are we if we throw away the Constitution and allow the Government to punish people/companies that exercise their rights?

China's constitution includes freedom of speech and elections.

Funny thing when you put rights on hold today for 'reasons' they tend to just go away. Look at the US today versus pre 9/11. It's a completely different country with completely different attitudes about freedom and privacy and government over reach and power.

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