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Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

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Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#131

Post by credit_guy »

cmiles8 wrote: post #44

All this demonstrates how non-sticky all this tech really is. When your product is basically just an API call it’s trivial to just swap you out for someone else. As such it’s unclear what the prize at the end of the present race to the bottom is. We swapped OpenAI out for Claude and it required updating about 15 lines of code. All these guys are just commodity to us. If next week there’s a better supplier of commodit…

The moat is compute.

In my case, I always use Opus 4.6 in my work, but quite often I get a 504 error, and that's quite annoying. I get errors like that with Gemini too. I can't estimate if I'd get a similar number of errors with ChatGPT, since I use it very infrequently.

But imagine that at some point one of the big 3 (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) gets very high availability, while the others have very poor availability. Then people would switch to them, even if their models were a bit worse.

Now, OpenAI has been building like crazy, and contracting for future builds like crazy too. Google has very deep pockets, so they'll probably have enough compute to stay in the game. But I fear that Anthropic will not be able to match OpenAI and Google in terms of datacenter build, so it's only a matter of time (and not a lot of time) until they'll be in a pretty tight spot.

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#132

Post by maest »

bestouff wrote: post #118
Max-Ganz-II wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To stop this, I today put most of my Amazon Redshift research web-site behind a basic auth username/password wall. It's all remains free, but you need to email me for a username and password. If I put in time and effort to make content and OpenAI et al copy it and sell it through their LLM such that no one comes to me any more, then plainly it makes no sense for me to create that content; and then it would not exist…

An AI is more likely than me to take the time to send you an email for requesting access - I'm too lazy.

I think a better approach would be to have a login form and just say "the password is 1234" or whatever.

Virtually no scraper has logic to handle that sort of situation, but it's trivial for humans. Way easier than an LLM

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#133

Post by k32k »

Many people I know initially used ChatGPT for awhile. Then after awhile they went to Gemini. Again stuck with it for awhile. And now are dabbling with Claude.

Yep there really is no switching cost it seems.

People generally want something from a model and then leave. I think people are sub-consciously forming relationships with Tech firms such that they do not care about them, and its all about what the user themselves gets. Generally there is no attachment. There's some examples of psychotic stuff but that's thankfully the exception not the norm.

That's why Apple cares deeply about its brand - it doesn't want to fall into that group of firms.

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#134

Post by k32k »

ajross wrote: post #95
linkregister wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Frontier labs are paying the same constellation of firms offering proprietary data and access to experts in their fields to train LLMs. They are neck-and-neck only because they are participating in the arms race. The only other way to keep up is mass-distillation, which could prove to be fragile (so far it seems to be sustainable).

Meh. I think there's basically no benefit shown so far to careful curation. That's where we've been in machine learning for three decades, after all. Also recognize that the Great Leap Forward of LLMs was when they got big enough to abandon that strategy and just slurp in the Library of All The Junk. I think one needs to at least recognize the possibility that... there just isn't any more data for training. We've don…

I think this is where we are at, too.

But if you say stuff like this on here you get down voted. Why?

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#135

Post by k32k »

bonoboTP wrote: post #108
ajross wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meh. I think there's basically no benefit shown so far to careful curation. That's where we've been in machine learning for three decades, after all. Also recognize that the Great Leap Forward of LLMs was when they got big enough to abandon that strategy and just slurp in the Library of All The Junk. I think one needs to at least recognize the possibility that... there just isn't any more data for training. We've don…

Ok, maybe pretraining is now complete and solved. Next up: post-training, reinforcement learning, engineering RL environments for realistic problem solving, recording data online during use, then offline simulation of how it could have gone better and faster, distilling that into the next model etc. etc. There's still decades worth of progress to be made this way.

" There's still decades worth of progress to be made this way."

That's not true. Moreover the progress can slow to a crawl where it's barely noticeable. And in that world the humans continues to stay ahead - that's the magic of humans. To be aware of surroundings and adapt sufficiently whilst taking advantage of tools and leveraging them.

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#136

Post by _aavaa_ »

EQmWgw87pw wrote: post #122
Balgair wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

→All these guys are just commodity to us. Just want to note something there: Okay, premise that AI really is 'intelligent' up to the point of business decisions. So, this all then implies that 'intelligence' is then a commodity too? Like, I'm trying to drive at that your's, mine, all of our 'intelligence' is now no longer a trait that I hold, but a thing to be used, at least as far as the economy is concerned. We did…

Well as of right now, mathematically and scientifically, the way an LLM works has nothing to do with how the human brain works.

So? Does a submarine swim?

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#137

Post by bmitc »

coldtea wrote: post #128
EQmWgw87pw wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well as of right now, mathematically and scientifically, the way an LLM works has nothing to do with how the human brain works.

The way this thing "looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck" has nothing to do with the way a real duck "looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck". Who cares, as long as the end results are close (or close enough for the uses they are put to)? Besides, "has nothing to do with how the human brain works" is an overstatement. "The term “predictive brain” depicts one of the most r…

The human doesn't just predict. It predicts based upon simulations that it runs. These LLMs do not work like this.

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#139

Post by beachy »

fluidcruft wrote: post #48
lavezzi wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "We have these two red lines... Not allowing Anthropic's AI to perform mass surveillance of Americans, and prohibiting its AI from powering fully-autonomous weapons..." Anthropic literally said the same, but seem to be getting positive PR. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ai-executive-dario-amodei-on-th...

The difference is that Anthropic actually dotted the i's and crossed the t's whereas OpenAI fell for the weaselwords and is now desperately trying to renegotiate.

OpenAI didn't fall for anything, they knew exactly what they were signing and went ahead anyway, then started gaslighting people about what they had signed.

For a lot of people (me included) the lack of integrity and the gaslighting is what has soured them on OpenAI, rather than them signing up to build surveillance and weaponry.

To non-US citizens, all AI companies are as dangerous as each other, OpenAI just really botched the optics here.

Re: Claude struggles to cope with ChatGPT exodus

#140

Post by anon373839 »

coldtea wrote: post #128
EQmWgw87pw wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well as of right now, mathematically and scientifically, the way an LLM works has nothing to do with how the human brain works.

The way this thing "looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck" has nothing to do with the way a real duck "looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck". Who cares, as long as the end results are close (or close enough for the uses they are put to)? Besides, "has nothing to do with how the human brain works" is an overstatement. "The term “predictive brain” depicts one of the most r…

But the end results aren’t actually close. That is why frontier LLMs don’t know you need to drive your car to the car wash (until they are inevitably fine-tuned on this specific failure mode). I don’t think there is much true generalization happening with these models - more a game of whack-a-mole all the way down.
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