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I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

seangoedecke.com

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Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#131
post #81

Guys guys. I do share the sentiment. On the other hand. Unless we have a breakthrough hardware/physical innovation, GenAI in its current forecast is not energy-efficient, cost-efficient, compared to human/deterministic methods. It has shown no capacity so far to « create » in the sense we animals do. And all that, still being: highly subsidized (your subscription does NOT cover the costs of the service as of now, we…

To give you the benefit of doubt - you're not paying attention. The 100$ claude account is profitable inference wise, and performs better than 80% of engineers with upto 5YOE. Architects I speak with want to delegate to this 100$ agent rather than 10000$ engineer. It is absolutely more cost efficient. Junior engineers are done for.

I have first hand and second hand seen more failure from this line of reasoning _as of today_, in the French/European tech sector, than successes. Not even talking about those executives that expect to use Gen AI to "help" in their process and financial reporting - at least the flag is bright red.

I've also met enough architects (or so called) in consulting, service companies as well as startups, from both a founder and a tech lead point of view, in the past 25 years not to entrust them too much with their hunches, long-term wise.

Especially because, from a sustainability point of view, saying "junior engineers are done for" is like saying "kids are done for": not that wise. Unless what you account/bet for is the drastic reduction/disappearance of humains (and then, a lot starts to make more sense).

Re: I don't know if my job will still exist in ten years

#132
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are still a few quantum leaps needed. I have had great results with Opus 4.6, in particular in green field. But it behaved real messy in some professional real life projects. It seems you also need to tell it very specifics things some times but for that you need to do a software developer in the first place. We'll see.

LLMs certainly aren't ready to replace all software developers yet. They may never reach that point. But even if they never get good enough to replace all software developers, they can still cause massive job losses by allowing companies to do the same work with far fewer developers.

Why would they do the same amount of work with fewer devs when they could also get much more done with the same amount of developers?
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