Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's only certain if investments in tech infrastructure always led to productivity increases. But sometimes they just don't. Lots of firms spent a lot of money on blockchain five years ago, for instance, and that money is just gone now.
I find it odd the universal assumption that AI is going to be good for productivity The loss of skills, complete loss of visibility and experience with the codebase, and the complete lack of software architecture design, seems like a massive killer in the long term I have a feeling that we're going to see productivity with AI drop through the floor
Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
131–140 of 584 posts
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's telling you feel the need to create a throw away to voice this opinion.
1) Not a throaway, can't remember what my old account is called 2) Feel free to screen shot. Stick it on your desktop and set a reminder and check the state of the world in 12 months time. Job done fella.
I totally understand that not everyone is having that experience. And yet until people live it, it seems they just discount the experience others are having.
I'll take the 12 month bet.
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#133Earlier quoted context omitted.
12 months I won't be surprised if there's not much change. But in 5 years? 10? Anything can happen. It is presumptuous to think you can project the future capabilities of this technology and confidently state that labour markets will never be affected.
You prove my point. Guys like you dont get it. You think OAI, Amazon etc can freely put large amounts of money into this for 5-10 years? Lmao - delusional. Investors are impatient. Show huge jumps in revenue this year or you no longer have permission to put monumental amounts of money into this anymore. Short of that they'll just destroy the stock price by selling off; leaving employees who get paid via SBC very unha…
Won't matter. The Chinese models will be running on potatoes by then and be better than ever.
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#134I don't write code for a living but I administer and maintain it. Every time I say this people get really angry, but: so far AI has had almost no impact on my job. Neither my dev team nor my vendors are getting me software faster than they were two years ago. Docker had a bigger impact on the pipeline to me than AI has. Maybe this will change, but until it does I'm mostly watching bemusedly.
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#135I don't write code for a living but I administer and maintain it. Every time I say this people get really angry, but: so far AI has had almost no impact on my job. Neither my dev team nor my vendors are getting me software faster than they were two years ago. Docker had a bigger impact on the pipeline to me than AI has. Maybe this will change, but until it does I'm mostly watching bemusedly.
Yep. All AI has done for me is give me the power of how good search engines were 10+ years ago, where I could search for something and find actually relevant and helpful info quickly. I've seen lots of people say AI can basically code a project for them. Maybe it can, but that seems to heavily depend on the field. Other than boilerplate code or very generic projects, it's a step above useless imo when it comes to gam…
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
I find it odd the universal assumption that AI is going to be good for productivity The loss of skills, complete loss of visibility and experience with the codebase, and the complete lack of software architecture design, seems like a massive killer in the long term I have a feeling that we're going to see productivity with AI drop through the floor
Having the productivity "drop through the floor" is a bit hyperbolic, no? Humans are still reviewing the PRs before code merge at least at my company (for the most part, for now).
Remember this famously happened before, in the 1970s
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#137I don't write code for a living but I administer and maintain it. Every time I say this people get really angry, but: so far AI has had almost no impact on my job. Neither my dev team nor my vendors are getting me software faster than they were two years ago. Docker had a bigger impact on the pipeline to me than AI has. Maybe this will change, but until it does I'm mostly watching bemusedly.
Build a new feature. If you aren't bogged down in bureaucracy it will happen much faster.
I recently used copilot.com to help solve a tricky problem for me (which uses GPT 5.1):
I have an arbitrary width rectangle that needs to be broken into smaller
random width rectangles (maintaining depth) within a given min/max range.
The first solution merged the remainder (if less than min) into the last rectangle created (regardless if it exceeded the max).So I poked the machine.
The next result used dynamic programming and generated every possible output combination. With a sufficiently large (yet small) rectangle, this is a factorial explosion and stalled the software.
So I poked the machine.
I realized this problem was essentially finding the distinct multisets of numbers that sum to some value. The next result used dynamic programming and only calculated the distinct sets (order is ignored). That way I could choose a random width from the set and then remove that value. (The LLM did not suggest this). However, even this was slow with a large enough rectangle.
So I poked my brain.
I realized I could start off with a greedy solution: Choose a random width within range, subtract from remaining width. Once remaining width is small enough, use dynamic programming. Then I had to handle the edges cases (no sets, when it's okay to break the rules.. etc)
So the LLMs are useful, but this took 2-3 hours IIRC (thinking, implementation, testing in an environment). Pretty sure I would have landed on a solution within the same time frame. Probably greedy with back tracking to force-fit the output.
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#138Earlier quoted context omitted.
Same here, more or less, in the ops world. Yeah, I use AI but I can't honestly say it's massively improved my productivity or drastically changed my job in any way other than the emails I get from the other managers at my work are now clearly written by AI. I can turn out some scripts a little bit quicker, or find an answer to something a little quicker than googling, but I'm still waiting on others most of the time,…
You're missing something. I've been in ops for 30 years, Claude Code has changed how I work. Ops-related scripting seems to be a real sweet spot for the LLMs, especially as they tend to be smaller tools working together. It can convert a few sentences into working code in 15-30 minutes while you do something else. I've given it access to my apache logs Elastic cluster, and it does a great job at analyzing them ("We s…
The problem with analyzing logs is determinism. If I ask Claude to look for evidence of compromise, I can't trust the output without also going and verifying myself. It's now an extra step, for what? I still have to go into Elastic and run the actual queries to verify what Claude said. A saved Kibana search is faster, and more importantly, deterministic. I'm not going to leave something like finding evidence of compromise up to an LLM that can, and does, hallucinate especially when you fill the context up with a ton of logs.
An auditor isn't going to buy "But Claude said everything was fine."
Is AI actually finding things your SIEM rules were missing? Because otherwise, I just don't see the value in having a natural language interface for queries I already know how to run, it's less intuitive for me and non deterministic.
It's certainly a useful tool, there's no arguing that. I wouldn't want to go back to working with out it. But, I don't buy that it's already this huge labor market transformation force that's magically 100x everyone's productivity. That part is 100% pure hype, not reality.
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
> ... but I'm still waiting on others most of the time, the overall company processes haven't improved or gotten more efficient. The same blockers as always still exist. And that's the key problem, isn't it? I maintain current organizations have the "wrong shape" to fully leverage AI. Imagine instead of the scope of your current ownership, you own everything your team or your whole department owns. Consider what that…
What a load of fluff lmao. Are you Nadella?
Re: Labor market impacts of AI: A new measure and early evidence
#140Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's only certain if investments in tech infrastructure always led to productivity increases. But sometimes they just don't. Lots of firms spent a lot of money on blockchain five years ago, for instance, and that money is just gone now.
I find it odd the universal assumption that AI is going to be good for productivity The loss of skills, complete loss of visibility and experience with the codebase, and the complete lack of software architecture design, seems like a massive killer in the long term I have a feeling that we're going to see productivity with AI drop through the floor
Just yesterday I asked Opus 4.6 what I could do to make an old macOS AppKit project more testable, too lazy to even encumber the question with my own preferences like I usually do, and it pitched a refactor into Elm architecture. And then it did the refactor while I took a piss.
The idea that AI writes bad software or can't improve existing software in substantial ways is really outdated. Just consider how most human-written software is untested despite everyone agreeing testing is a good idea simply because test-friendly arch takes a lot of thought and test maintenance slow you down. AI will do all of that, just mention something about 'testability' in AGENTS.md.