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OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

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Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#131

Post by outside1234 »

general_reveal wrote: post #96
konschubert wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So basically, Amazon is buying into the IPO at an early price. Maybe this is the time to divest from MSCI world. I don’t want to be the bag holder in the world’s largest pump and dump. It can both be true at the same time: That AI is going to disrupt our world and that Open AI does not have a business model that supports its valuation.

Did it ever occur to you that an entire generation of developers are going to retire in less than 20 years? They are betting that the software industry will be autonomous. Really, think of our industry like AUV phenomena. We’re the drivers that are about to be shown the door, that’s the bet. World will still need software, lots of it. Their valuation is based on an entire developer-less future world (no labor costs).

But Anthropic is the one that is disrupting software development? So why are we not piling into that?

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#132

Post by elephanlemon »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #68
aurareturn wrote: post #62

HN told me OpenAI was on the verge of collapse.

If nobody invested in OpenAI how long could they keep the lights on? They're not profitable yet, and a lot of the wealth that Sam Altman seems to be making revolves around strange circular deals. By comparison, Anthropic is projected to break even in 2028. Google's Gemini is already profitable.

Interesting. I’m having anything on Gemini being profitable though, do you happen to have a source?

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#133

Post by alephnerd »

cj wrote: post #128
9cb14c1ec0 wrote: post #122

There is not a single OpenAI model in the top 10 on openrouter's ranking page. The market is saying something about the comparative value of OpenAI. Edit: yes, it is true that many people do integrate directly with OpenAI. That doesn't negate the fact that Openrouter users are largely not using OpenAI.

> The market is saying something about the comparative value of OpenAI. Is it? At what point are the models going to all be "good enough", with the differentiating factor being everything else, other than model ranking? That day will come. Not everyone needs a Ferrari. Edit: I misread the parent, I think they're saying the same thing.

> At what point are the models going to all be "good enough", with the differentiating factor being everything else, other than model ranking?

It's already come for vast swathes of industries.

Most organizations have already been able to operationalize what are essentially GPT4 and GPT5 wrappers for standard enterprise usecases such as network security (eg. Horizon3) and internal knowledge discovery and synthesis (eg. GleanAI back in 2024-25).

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#134

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

zozbot234 wrote: post #120
wongarsu wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI has all the name recognition (which is worth a couple billion in itself), but when it comes to actual business use cases in the here and now Anthropic seems ahead. Even more so if we are talking about software dev. But they are valued at less than half of OpenAI's valuation What is somewhat justifying OpenAI's valuation is that they are still trying for AGI. They are not just working on models that work here a…

Obligatory reminder that today's so called "AGI" has trouble figuring out whether I should walk or drive to the car wash in order to get my dirty car washed. It has to think through the scenario step by step, whereas any human can instantly grok the right answer.

I just don't know how to engage with these criticisms anymore. Do you not see how increasingly convoluted the "simple question LLMs can't answer" bar has gotten since 2022? Do the human beings you know not have occasional brain farts where they recommend dumb things that don't make much sense?

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#135

Post by qoez »

lm28469 wrote: post #105
rustyhancock wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well Anthropic has said (a fairly weak but clear) no to DoW, I wonder who will say yes?

https://www.axios.com/2026/02/27/altman-openai-anthropic-pen... > Sam Altman says OpenAI shares Anthropic's red lines in Pentagon fight 90% chance it's all PR but who knows

Never believe anything sam says

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#136

Post by zvqcMMV6Zcr »

randusername wrote: post #108

There's this saying that if you owe the bank a million dollars, you have a big problem, but if you owe the bank 100 million dollars, the bank has a big problem. Is the same thing true for corporations? At some point the numbers are so wild the entire economy must help you succeed? I don't mean "too big to fail" exactly, more like "so big eventual success is guaranteed at all costs"

I wonder if there is "too big for IPO". Saudi Aramco in 2019 sold shares worth $25.6 billion in IPO. Even offering just 5% of OpenAI to public would shatter that record. Well, unless public isn't actually interested in investing such huge amounts.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#137

Post by 9cb14c1ec0 »

alephnerd wrote: post #133
cj wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The market is saying something about the comparative value of OpenAI. Is it? At what point are the models going to all be "good enough", with the differentiating factor being everything else, other than model ranking? That day will come. Not everyone needs a Ferrari. Edit: I misread the parent, I think they're saying the same thing.

> At what point are the models going to all be "good enough", with the differentiating factor being everything else, other than model ranking? It's already come for vast swathes of industries. Most organizations have already been able to operationalize what are essentially GPT4 and GPT5 wrappers for standard enterprise usecases such as network security (eg. Horizon3) and internal knowledge discovery and synthesis (eg…

Yes, and that is why I used the phrase comparative value. The concept of winning business based on being #1 on the benchmarks is dead.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#139

Post by spott »

9cb14c1ec0 wrote: post #122

There is not a single OpenAI model in the top 10 on openrouter's ranking page. The market is saying something about the comparative value of OpenAI. Edit: yes, it is true that many people do integrate directly with OpenAI. That doesn't negate the fact that Openrouter users are largely not using OpenAI.

This could just be because everyone is using direct OpenAI api keys when using OpenAI.

Re: OpenAI raises $110B on $730B pre-money valuation

#140

Post by nerdix »

aurareturn wrote: post #62

HN told me OpenAI was on the verge of collapse.

I don't think they are going to collapse. But it was only a couple of years ago that many people thought OpenAI had a big (some thought insurmountable) lead in a race to dominate a winner take all markee. Some people did correctly state that OpenAI had no moat in those days so credit there where it's due.

Now it's looking like a competitive blood bath where ever increasing levels of investment is needed just to main market position. Their frontier models are SOTA for 4 weeks before a competitor comes and takes the crown. They are standing on much shakier ground than they were 2 years ago.

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