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Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

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Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#131

Post by m4rtink »

crowcroft wrote: post #97
shirro wrote: post #87

Over investment in AI data centers is having a huge negative impact all over the economy. Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy. Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality. Many hardware launches are going to be delayed or n…

> Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy. Would love to know what sectors you would say are obviously under invested. Sounds like an opportunity.

With launch costs finally falling there really could be more investment into space related technologies.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#132

Post by varispeed »

h4kunamata wrote: post #130
ProfessorLayton wrote: post #8

Somehow, with 12GB of RAM, I can't get my iPhone 17 Pro to keep more than a few safari tabs open without having them refresh when I come back from an app or two, and it makes me want to throw my phone across the train (Where the internet often cuts out!). A lot of software has been squandering the massive hardware gains that have been made. I hope this changes when it becomes a lot harder to throw hardware at the pro…

That is an Apple problem and keep in mind that iPhone doesn't do multi-task, the fact that you are having problems with 12GB is not surprised to me. I have to use a Macbook M4 at work with 24GB, I have an AMD Lenovo Ryzen7 with 32GB running Linux Mint Cinnamon. It is infuriating how slow this Macbook is, even to shut it down is slow asf. macOS is not different than Windows, I cannot wait for COB to get back to my Lin…

24GB is not enough, it will keep swapping, compressing etc. I had such device at work. 32GB is a night and day difference. That said my workflows are such that I need at least 128GB now...

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#133

Post by inigyou »

crowcroft wrote: post #97
shirro wrote: post #87

Over investment in AI data centers is having a huge negative impact all over the economy. Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy. Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality. Many hardware launches are going to be delayed or n…

> Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy. Would love to know what sectors you would say are obviously under invested. Sounds like an opportunity.

Everything that produces useful stuff or does useful stuff.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#134

Post by inigyou »

mr_toad wrote: post #110
m4rtink wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There far too many railways, amusement parks, housing developments and other bubble ventures that were either never even completed after wasting a lot of money or went bust soon after opening. No reason the same can't happen now - especially for something as expensive and faily easily re-sellable as a datacenter & the hardware insite. Just rip it all out and sell it for parts where they are actually needed.

The data centers have already been financed, they’re not going to stop halfway through because they’ve run out of money. Whether or not they’ll make money on completion is a different story, but that’s 2-3 years away at least. Then you might see RAM prices drop, but not before.

Financed means they have a promise to get the money, it doesn't mean they have the money.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#135

Post by m4rtink »

mr_toad wrote: post #110
m4rtink wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There far too many railways, amusement parks, housing developments and other bubble ventures that were either never even completed after wasting a lot of money or went bust soon after opening. No reason the same can't happen now - especially for something as expensive and faily easily re-sellable as a datacenter & the hardware insite. Just rip it all out and sell it for parts where they are actually needed.

The data centers have already been financed, they’re not going to stop halfway through because they’ve run out of money. Whether or not they’ll make money on completion is a different story, but that’s 2-3 years away at least. Then you might see RAM prices drop, but not before.

I would not be so sure - for example Oracle is already struggling to finance its datacenter commitments:

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/shareholders-sue-...

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#136

Post by inigyou »

dheera wrote: post #120

I don't think it's about memory shortage. It's that everything has become 20% more expensive in the past year, I'm being taxed to death, fighting with companies trying to money grab me, my electric bill is now $800, and I'm now too broke to buy a new phone every 2 years when most of my income gets eaten by the "system". I'll wait until either SPY does another 50% run or BTC does another 100% run and then I'll buy a n…

SPY has been flat when measured in other currencies btw. Everything's 20% more expensive and SPY is up 20% because US money is worth 20% less.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#137

Post by nickjj »

torben-friis wrote: post #21

The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising. The just announced pixel is the same phone as last year. I know it sounds like a usual complaint, but look at the actual specs, it literally is the same phone with differences so small that hey might have passed as regional variance. As for the Samsung, the screen can darken when looked from the side for privacy. That’s pretty much it. Price increased though. Couple…

> The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising.

It's eyebrow raising for me in other ways.

I have a Pixel 9a and it's been quite good with really solid battery life. It's barely 6 months old and I got it new straight from Google.

A few days ago I noticed the battery started to drain much faster than usual. I also noticed at the same time Google is pushing the 10a.

Nothing changed on my end. I barely use the phone in my day to day. In 10 hours today I sent 3 text messages with Whatsapp and lost 60% of my battery in that time frame. Up until a few days ago, 60% would last me 3 days.

I find it weirdly coincidental that the battery life went from amazing to worse than a 5 year old device I had prior to this just as they are releasing new phones. I've powered it down and given it a full discharge / charge too. It's still draining at an alarming rate.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#138

Post by torben-friis »

nickjj wrote: post #137
torben-friis wrote: post #21

The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising. The just announced pixel is the same phone as last year. I know it sounds like a usual complaint, but look at the actual specs, it literally is the same phone with differences so small that hey might have passed as regional variance. As for the Samsung, the screen can darken when looked from the side for privacy. That’s pretty much it. Price increased though. Couple…

> The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising. It's eyebrow raising for me in other ways. I have a Pixel 9a and it's been quite good with really solid battery life. It's barely 6 months old and I got it new straight from Google. A few days ago I noticed the battery started to drain much faster than usual. I also noticed at the same time Google is pushing the 10a. Nothing changed on my end. I barely use the pho…

Yup, I’ve heard of that “bug” from personal friends so you’re not imagining things.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#139

Post by torben-friis »

ajross wrote: post #128
torben-friis wrote: post #21

The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising. The just announced pixel is the same phone as last year. I know it sounds like a usual complaint, but look at the actual specs, it literally is the same phone with differences so small that hey might have passed as regional variance. As for the Samsung, the screen can darken when looked from the side for privacy. That’s pretty much it. Price increased though. Couple…

> Coupled with the current iOS situation it seems like things are… rotting. Everything in decline. Just "commoditizing". Last years microwave ovens were basically the same as 2024's also, and no one cares. You still need them and people still buy them and use them as much as ever, but at a replacement rate and not because of fashion or innovation. That is a good thing. It means the economy is doing what it's supposed…

So I take it then we’re seeing more efficient and cheap models as time passes right? Definitely not a software regression and higher prices?

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#140

Post by al_borland »

londons_explore wrote: post #129
bigstrat2003 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A lot of software has been squandering the massive hardware gains that have been made. I hope this changes when it becomes a lot harder to throw hardware at the problem. Considering how many people are so averse to programming that they use LLMs to generate code for them? Not very likely IMO. I would like to see it happen, but people seem allergic to actually trying to be good at the craft these days.

I think we aren't far from AI being able to solve this sort of problem too. Imagine you are Apple and can just set an LLM loose on the codebase for a weekend with the task to reduce RAM usage of every component by 50%...

From everything I’ve seen, LLMs aren’t exactly known for writing extremely optimized code.

Also, what happens to the stability and security of my phone after they let an LLM loose on the entire code base for a weekend?

There are 1.5 billion iPhones out there. It’s not a place to play fast and loose with bleeding edge tech known for hallucinations and poor architecture.

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