AI’s impact on engineering jobs may be different than expected

i have been programming for 40years.. but still have not dipped in this brave new world of shakespeare-taught coding-LLMs.

IMO there's one basic difference with this new "generative" stuff.. it's not deterministic. Or not yet. All previous generations "AI" were deterministic.. but died.

Generating is not a problem. i have made medium-ish projects - say 200+kloc python/js - having 50%-70% of code generated (by other code - so you maintain that meta-code, and the "language" recipes-code it interprets) - but it has been all deterministic. If shit happens - or some change is needed, anywhere on the requirements-down-to-deployment chain - someone can eventually figure out where and what. It is reasoned. And most importantly, once done, it stays done. And if i regenerate it 1000 times, it will be same.

Did this made me redundant? Not at all. Producing software is much easier this way, the recipes are much shorter, there's less space for errors etc etc. But still - Higher abstractions are even harder to grasp than boilerplate. Which has quite a cost.. you cannot throw any newbie on it and expect results.

So, fine-tuning assembly - or manual transmission - might be gonna-be-obsolete skill, as it is not required.. except in rare conditions. But it is helpful to learn stuff. To flex your mind/body about alternatives, possibilities, shortcuts, wear-and-tear, fatigue, aha-moments and what not. And then move these as concepts, onto another domains, which are not as commoditized yet.

Another thing is.. Exupery in Land-of-people talks about technology (airplanes in his case), and how without technology, mankind workarounds/ avoids places/things that are not "friendly", like twisting roads around hellscapes. While technology cuts all straight through those - flies above all that, perfect for when it works - and turns into nightmare when it breaks right in the middle of such unfriendly "area".

dunno. maybe i am getting old..

Great point. The people who popularized 'the end of history' were right about it from the PoV of innovation benefiting humans. It's been marginal gains since. Any appearance of significant gains (in the eyes of a minority of powerful people) has been the result of concentration in fewer hands (zero-sum game).

The focus of politics after the 90s should have shifted to facilitating competition to equalize distribution of existing wealth and should have promoted competition of ideas, but instead, the governments of the world got together and enacted policies which would suppress competition, at the highest scale imaginable. What they did was much worse than doing nothing.

Now, the closest solution we can aim for (IMO) is UBI. It's a late solution because a lot of people's lives have already been ruined through no fault of their own. On the plus side it made other people much more resilient, but if we keep going down this path, there is nothing more to learn; only serves to reinforce the existing idea that everything is a scam. This is bound to affect people's behaviors in terrible ways.

Imagine a dystopian future where the system spends a huge amount of resources first financially oppressing people to the point of insanity, then monitoring and controlling them to try to get them to avoid doing harm... When the system could just have given them (less) money and avoided this downward spiral into insanity to begin with and then you wouldn't even need to monitor them because they would be allowed to survive whilst being their own sane, good-natured self. We have to course-correct and are approaching a point of no return when the resentment becomes severe and permanent. Nobody can survive in a world where the majority of people are insane.

Aren't radiator caps supposed to let excessive pressure escape?

You fill up the reservoir, but the cap is still there.

I jumped into a new-to-me Typescript application and asked Claude to build a thing, in vague terms matching my own uncertainty and unfamiliarity. The result was similarly vague garbage. Three shots and I threw them all away.

Then I watched a someone familiar with the codebase ask Claude to build the thing, in precise terms matching their expertise and understanding of the code. It worked flawlessly the first time.

Neither of us "coded", but their skill with the underlying theory of the program allowed them to ask the right questions, infinitely more productive in this case.

Skill and understanding matter now more than ever! LLMs are pushing us rapidly away from specialized technicians to theory builders.

> Have we? It feels like a lot of stuff in my life is unnecessarily expensive or hard to afford.

Look at a bunch of job postings and ask yourself if that work is going to make things cheaper for you or better for society. We're not building railroads and telephone networks anymore. One person can grow food for 10,000. Stuff is expensive because free market capitalism allows it and some people are pathologically greedy. Runaway optimizers with no real goal state in mind except "more."

> How? What are you proposing exactly?

In a word, socialism. It's a social and political problem, not a technical one. These systems have fallen way behind technology and allowed crazy accumulations of wealth in the hands of very few. Push for legislation to redistribute the wealth to the people.

If someone invents a robot to do the work of McDonalds workers, that should liberate them from having to do that kind of work. This is the dream and the goal of technology. Instead, under our current system, one person gets a megayacht and thousands of people are "unemployed." With no change to the amount of important work being done.