De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025) • Hacker News Board

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#131

Post by znnajdla » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:57 PM UTC

IshKebab wrote: post #97

maerF0x0 wrote: post #88

China is intentionally undermining the dollar in order to try to make the Yuan the world currency[1,2,3]. My current hypothesis is that the growth in the _price_ of the US Stock market (eg S&P 500) is actually devaluation of the dollar. Compared to real money (Gold) the S&P500 is down over the past 10 years. [4] 1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1o2s6qp/yuan_has_s... 2 - https://www.economist.com/china/20…

Gold is not "real money", come on.

A goat or a sheep cost roughly the same in gold today as it cost 2000 years ago during the Roman Empire. Gold is the only “real money” in the sense that it is the only stable measure of the value of basic needs over centuries.

https://chatgpt.com/share/696fb3e8-91d4-800a-9b2b-32eacdadeb...

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#132

Post by einpoklum » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:57 PM UTC

throwaway5752 wrote: post #31

Yes, of fucking course it is. The US elected a convicted con artist who is incontrovertibly violating human rights law, breaking treaties with allies, militarily threatening neighbors, and in general making a global outcast of themselves. The US is making an absolute mockery over the honor and responsibility granted to in the post-WW2 world. It has sophisticated rivals that are predictably and effectively making use…

> The US is making an absolute mockery over the honor and responsibility etc.

The US was a rather empire without many scruples before WW2 and after it. It engaged in genocide in Vietnam, and was complicit in several others, including the ongoing one in Gaza - which was sanctioned, funded and facilitated first and foremost by the Biden-Harris administration.

So, without detracting from Trump's crimes and jingoist rhetoric and action, his deviation from US foreign policy tradition is not as far as one might imagine.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#133

Post by PlatoIsADisease » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:57 PM UTC

maerF0x0 wrote: post #88

China is intentionally undermining the dollar in order to try to make the Yuan the world currency[1,2,3]. My current hypothesis is that the growth in the _price_ of the US Stock market (eg S&P 500) is actually devaluation of the dollar. Compared to real money (Gold) the S&P500 is down over the past 10 years. [4] 1 - https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1o2s6qp/yuan_has_s... 2 - https://www.economist.com/china/20…

>China is intentionally undermining the dollar in order to try to make the Yuan the world currency

The constant devaluation makes it unappealing.

> My current hypothesis is that the growth in the _price_ of the US Stock market (eg S&P 500) is actually devaluation of the dollar.

I generally agree. But economic orthodoxy says 'Inflation is only 2%', despite precovid, it seemed more like 4%.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#134

Post by mannyv » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:57 PM UTC

De-dollarization is one of those things economists love to talk about.

The chance of the dollar losing its reserve currency status is slim-to-none. No matter how bizarre the US is, nobody trusts the Chinese Communist Party (CPP). And although the US can manipulate the value of the dollar, its tools are limited compared to the CPP.

Plus, the US is still the only country that's willing and able to prop up the world financial system with no immediate benefit (see Argentina). The US can and will intervene when necessary. And as history has shown, the Euro Zone can't really make decisions quickly and effectively. How many times has the Euro been on the verge of collapse in the last 20 years? And is proximity to Russia is, well, risky.

In any case there is no currency big enough to take the dollar's spot at this point in time. Trillions of dollars flow through the financial system every day.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#135

Post by hintymad » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:58 PM UTC

Honest question: isn't it just a matter of time before US dollar loses its dominance, given that US has been losing its manufacturing business? I mean, can people really keep investing in the US market if they need less and less stuff produced by the US?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#136

Post by WarmWash » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:58 PM UTC

Trump is a populist president who sees the value of US exports (on the back of blue collar work) being more important than global dollar dominance. This plays hand in hand with his championing of tariffs (foreign goods become more expensive) and hostility towards immigrants (apply upwards pressure on domestic wages).

If you cannot see this, or cannot believe it, you should probably check if you are in a ideological bubble.

Is the world going to de-dollarize though? Probably not, shy of an EU independence, which is about as likely as Europeans adopting an American work culture. Although, I won't rule out the possibility of the EU moving it's eggs to China's basket either. What a world that would be, a Sino-Euro axis and an North American axis. Whew

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#137

Post by kingkawn » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:59 PM UTC

ambicapter wrote: post #68

torlok wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I've been trying to read more about investing properly recently and this is such an annoying characteristic of most advice you read. Sometimes it's also "well, economic theory says this, and that doesn't follow the behavior of these markets, so decide for yourself".

what unsupported gut-feeling conclusion would you prefer they reach for you?

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#138

Post by parsimo2010 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:59 PM UTC

softwaredoug wrote: post #83

snovymgodym wrote: post #3

The international value of the dollar as a reserve and trade currency is inherently tied to the behavior of the US Government and the Federal Reserve. The behavior of the US Government has been very unusual lately, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is actively being challenged. So draw from that whatever conclusions you wish.

It’s not just that This is a gradual decline. From 70% in the 90s to 60% today. Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s. People can argue over EU economic stability, but it’s there as reasonable option.

As time goes on, fewer people are alive that predate the EU and more people will perceive it as a lasting institution.

Additionally, we've now seen the EU survive the departure of a major economic power (the UK). More people are certainly willing to believe in the stability of the EU now.

Another major currency is the Yuan, and some countries may be as willing to trade in Yuan to improve relations with China, so perhaps we won't see one single reserve currency but two spheres of influence with most countries maintaining reserves of multiple currencies.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#139

Post by Waterluvian » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:59 PM UTC

Jtsummers wrote: post #96

touwer wrote: post #51

The US century is already over. It's just that a lot of US citizens don't see that. De-dollarization will happen when one is a traitor to it's allies

Many of us see it, but many others seem to be embracing it and trying to hasten it for reasons unknown. They pine for the glory days of post-WWII US hegemony but are actively undoing the institutions that were instrumental in US economic and political power at that time. They have no coherent world view, they are severely confused, but unfortunately numerous.

I actually have a greater disgust for those who see it but don't act. I think this line from an incredibly relevant book is precisely this:

> "Your ‘little men,’ your Nazi friends, were not against National Socialism in principle. Men like me, who were, are the greater offenders, not because we knew better (that would be too much to say) but because we sensed better.

Those who act on behalf of evil are not free from guilt, of course. But the truly damned are those who sense better but look the other way. They walk in the footsteps of the millions who tacitly supported the last time this evil took hold of the world, by not acting.

This entire book, but especially this exerpt, is a must read: https://press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/511928.htm

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#140

Post by adamc » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 4:59 PM UTC

ezst wrote: post #98

mkoubaa wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

What the other said about it being a non sequitur, adding on top of that "constitutional right" is no longer as strong a statement as you think it is considering the kangaroo court that is the SCOTUS nowadays.

In many ways, this is the real problem.