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Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

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Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#131

Post by nostrademons »

boh wrote: post #125

Honestly these IPOs are likely to kill the market. Once the necessary disclosures are out, and the worse-case math people are assuming turns out to have been way more optimistic than the actual truth, the entire market is likely crashing since the money is so spread out. So far there has been zero good news from an investment perspective out of LLM centered companies outside of what are ultimately just complex financ…

If they get into the S&P 500 at a $300B market cap that puts them at #30, just behind Coca-Cola. They'll make up about half a percent of the index and then will have a ready supply of price-insensitive buyers in the form of everybody who puts their retirement fund into an index fund on autopilot.

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#132

Post by zozbot234 »

medler wrote: post #115
zozbot234 wrote: post #64

Does this mean that Anthropic has more than reached AGI, seeing as OpenAI has officially defined "AGI" as any AI that manages to create more than a hectocorn's worth (100 unicorns, or $100B) in economic value?

That was $100B in profits, not valuation.

Profits over what timeframe? Valuation is just the total sum of profit discounted for time and risk.

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#134

Post by chollida1 »

nostrademons wrote: post #131
boh wrote: post #125

Honestly these IPOs are likely to kill the market. Once the necessary disclosures are out, and the worse-case math people are assuming turns out to have been way more optimistic than the actual truth, the entire market is likely crashing since the money is so spread out. So far there has been zero good news from an investment perspective out of LLM centered companies outside of what are ultimately just complex financ…

If they get into the S&P 500 at a $300B market cap that puts them at #30, just behind Coca-Cola. They'll make up about half a percent of the index and then will have a ready supply of price-insensitive buyers in the form of everybody who puts their retirement fund into an index fund on autopilot.

Well they'll hit the requirements for company size and country of domicile, but aren't yet at the other requirements, of profitability and a minimum of 12 months after an IPO so they have a chance of being added.

As to the size of the bump they'll get there isn't a single rule of thumb but larger cap companies tend to get a smaller bump, which you'd expect. I've seen models estimate a 2-5% bump for large companies and a 4-7% bump for mid level and 6-12% for "small" under $20 Billion dollar market cap companies.

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#135

Post by BJones12 »

kevinqi wrote: post #133
mNovak wrote: post #127

So would a $300B Anthropic get included in the SP500?

I think there are profitability requirements, right?

Profitability in both 3 month and 12 month spans. Also minimum 12 months of trading history after IPO.

See page ~9 of https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/me...

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#136

Post by wyre »

andrew_lettuce wrote: post #96
torginus wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just how much of the market do retail investors control? I thought they were a drop in the bucket. Also, is there a way to know how much of the total volume of shares is being traded now? If I kept hyping my company (successfully), and drove the share price from $10 to $1000, thanks to retail hype, I could 100x the value of my company lets say from $100m to $10B, while the amount of money actually changing hands woul…

When you add in money managed on behalf of retail investors it gets big fast, thinking indexed funds, pensions etc. they are not immune, and ETFs by definition need to participate

Is that not considered institutional? If i own a Vanguard ETF, the stock that comprises the ETF is classified as being owned by Vanguard, right?

Genuinely asking.

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#137

Post by riku_iki »

pu_pe wrote: post #5
JosephjackJR wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The optimistic view is that Anthropic is one of about four labs in the world capable of generating truly state-of-the-art models. Also, Claude Code is arguably the best tool in its category at the moment. They have the developer market locked in. The problem as I see it is that neither of those things are significant moats. Both OpenAI and Google have far better branding and a much larger user base, and Google also h…

> The optimistic view is that Anthropic is one of about four labs in the world capable of generating truly state-of-the-art models.

what about Chinese models?..

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#138

Post by chollida1 »

torginus wrote: post #37
Havoc wrote: post #17

Retail investors yoloing into AI at peak bubble vibes sounds about right

Just how much of the market do retail investors control? I thought they were a drop in the bucket. Also, is there a way to know how much of the total volume of shares is being traded now? If I kept hyping my company (successfully), and drove the share price from $10 to $1000, thanks to retail hype, I could 100x the value of my company lets say from $100m to $10B, while the amount of money actually changing hands woul…

Retail has gotten alot bigger lately( last 10 years and mostly since covid) and alot more "organized".

Goldman puts out their retail reports weekly that show retail is 20% of trading in alot of names and higher in alot of the meme stock names.

They used to be so tiny due to $50/trade fees, but with the advent of all the free money in the system since covid and GenZ feeling like real estate won't be their path to freedom, and option trading for retail, and zero commission trading retail has a real voice in the markets.

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#139

Post by bostik »

gtirloni wrote: post #31
pu_pe wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The optimistic view is that Anthropic is one of about four labs in the world capable of generating truly state-of-the-art models. Also, Claude Code is arguably the best tool in its category at the moment. They have the developer market locked in. The problem as I see it is that neither of those things are significant moats. Both OpenAI and Google have far better branding and a much larger user base, and Google also h…

> They have the developer market locked in Developers will jump ship to a better tool at a blink of an eye. I wouldn't call it locked in at all. In fact, people do use Claude Code and Codex simultaneously in some cases.

Individual and startup devs yes. Enterprise devs, less so.

The latter are locked in to whatever vendor(s) their corporate entity has subscribed to. In a perverse twist, this gives the approved[tm] vendors an incentive to add backend integrations to multiple different providers so that their actual end-users can - at least in theory - choose which models to use for their work.

Re: Anthropic taps IPO lawyers as it races OpenAI to go public

#140

Post by dkdcio »

nerevarthelame wrote: post #106
dkdcio wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that’s not what he claimed, just to be clear. I’m too lazy to look up the full quote but not lazy enough to not comment this is A) out of context B) mis-phrased as to entirely misconstrue the already taken-out-of-context quote I think it was also back in March, not a year ago

https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-ceo-ai-90-percent-... (March 2025): >"I think we will be there in three to six months, where AI is writing 90% of the code. And then, in 12 months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code," Amodei said at a Council of Foreign Relations event on Monday. >Amodei said software developers would still have a role to play in the near term. This is becau…

you’re once again cutting the quote short — after “all of the code” he has more to say that’s very important for understanding the context and avoiding this rage-bait BS we all love to engage in

edit: sorry you mostly included it paraphrased; it does a disservice (I understand it’s largely the media’s fault) to cut that full quote short though. I’m trying to specifically address someone claiming this person said 90% of developers would be replaced in a year over a year ago, which is beyond misleading

edit to put the full quote higher:

> "and in 12 months, we might be in a world where the ai is writing essentially all of the code. But the programmer still needs to specify what are the conditions of what you're doing. What is the overall design decision. How we collaborate with other code that has been written. How do we have some common sense with whether this is a secure design or an insecure design. So as long as there are these small pieces that a programmer has to do, then I think human productivity will actually be enhanced"

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