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Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

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Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#131

Post by bossyTeacher »

schnable wrote: post #34

OpenAI is making a wild number of product plays at once, trying to leverage the value of the frontier model, brand value, and massive number of eyeballs they own. Sora is just one of many. Some will fail and maybe some will succeed. It seems true that no company has used frontier models to create a product with business value commensurate with the cost it takes to train and run them. That what OpenAI is trying to do…

>It seems true that no company has used frontier models to create a product with business value commensurate with the cost it takes to train and run them. That what OpenAI is trying to do with Sora, and with Codex, Apps, "Agent" flows, etc. I don't think there's more to read into it than that.

It makes them look desperate though. Nothing like starting tons of services at once to show you have a vision

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#132

Post by JadeNB »

timschmidt wrote: post #117
JadeNB wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> > I can't see how functioning democracy can survive without truth as shared grounds of discussion. > I don't think the US was a monarchy for its first hundred years. Did the US not have truth as shared grounds of discussion for its first hundred years?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_journalism has been a thing for a very long time.

Right, by which standard truth has never been a shared grounds of discussion. I think that there's a big difference between "some people lie" and "there's no agreement on shared truth."

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#133

Post by bossyTeacher »

xwowsersx wrote: post #71

This take feels like classic Cal Newport pattern-matching: something looks vaguely "consumerish," so it must signal decline. It's a huge overreach. Whether OpenAI becomes a truly massive, world-defining company is an open question, but it's not going to be decided by Sora. Treating a research-facing video generator as if it's OpenAI's attempt at the next TikTok is just missing the forest for the trees. Sora isn't a p…

I agree. My bet is that OpenAI will not fullfill its mission of developing AGI by 2035. And I would be surprised if they ever did. As much as they might want to, there is only so many dreams you can whisper into rich people's ears before they tell you to go away. And without rich people's money, OpenAI will fall like a house of cards. The wealthy won't have infinite patience

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#134

Post by 1vuio0pswjnm7 »

"It wasn't that long ago that Sam Altman was still comparing the release of GPT-5 to the testing of the first atomic bomb, and many commentators took Dario Amodei at his word when he proclaimed* 50% of white collar jobs might soon be automated* by LLM-based tools.

A company that still believes that its technology was imminently going to run large swathes of the economy, and would be so powerful as to reconfigure our experience of the world as we know it, wouldn't be seeking to make a quick buck selling ads against deep fake videos of historical figures wrestling. They also wouldn't be entertaining the idea, as Altman did last week, that they might soon start offering an age-gated version of ChatGPT so that adults could enjoy"

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#135

Post by mcphage »

LexiMax wrote: post #87
mat_b wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Finally, people don't really care about the truth. They care about things that confirm their world view. Or they dismiss things that are inconvenient for their tribe and focus on things that are inconvenient for other tribes. People have always been this way though. The tribes are just organized differently in the internet age.

I strongly suspect future generations are going to look back on the age of trying to cram the entire world into one of several shared social spaces and say "What were those idiots thinking?"

In our defense (slightly), it was never really possible before, so we didn't previously have an opportunity to learn what a civilization-shatteringly bad idea it was.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#136

Post by mcphage »

hn_throw2025 wrote: post #81
sofixa wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The way people dealt with it was witness testimony and physical evidence. Which are inapplicable today. > We will adjust Will we? Maybe years later... per event. It's finally now dawning on the majority of Britons that Brexit was a mistake they were lied about.

[flagged]

> you would prefer to believe that Cambridge Analytica achieved mind control over 17.2M people

I'm not sure "motivated to make a bad decision" is the same thing as "achieved mind control".

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#137

Post by Teever »

bonoboTP wrote: post #58
Teever wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course we will adjust. That is a truism that is besides the point. What matters is how many people will suffer during this adjustment period. How many Rwandan genocides will happen because of this technology? How many lynchings or witch burnings?

It's not beside the point.you can lie with words, you can lie with cartoons and drawings and paintings. You can lie with movies. We will collectively understand that pixels on a screen are like cartoons or Photoshop on steroid.

Marconi demonstrated radio in 1895 and the first broadcast radio station started in 1920. By the 1930s Adolf Hitler was routinely using the medium to broadcast vile propaganda about Jews and others which lead to the holocaust in the 1940s.

About 40 years later the Rwandan genocide took place and many scholars attribute a preceding radio-based propaganda campaign as playing a key role in increasing ethnic violence in the aware.

Since then the link between radio and genocide seems to have decreased over time but it's likely that this isn't so much because humans have a better understanding of the medium but more so because propaganda has moved to more effective mediums like the internet.

Given that we didn't actually solve the problems with radio before moving onto the next medium it isn't likely that we'll figure out the problems with these new mediums before millions die.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#138

Post by quantified »

bossyTeacher wrote: post #130
noir_lord wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There will always be a market for it, wherever there is a mismatch between desire for and access to sexual activity. Attractive people in sexually fulfilling relationships still look at porn. It's just human.

>Attractive people in sexually fulfilling relationships still look at porn. How do you know those relationships are "sexually fulfilling"?

Works for me. You end up travelling for a week away from your partner, they're sick for a while, etc.

Re: Is Sora the beginning of the end for OpenAI?

#140

Post by impossiblefork »

xwowsersx wrote: post #71

This take feels like classic Cal Newport pattern-matching: something looks vaguely "consumerish," so it must signal decline. It's a huge overreach. Whether OpenAI becomes a truly massive, world-defining company is an open question, but it's not going to be decided by Sora. Treating a research-facing video generator as if it's OpenAI's attempt at the next TikTok is just missing the forest for the trees. Sora isn't a p…

There are also interesting things one could do with models like Sora, depending how it actually performs in practice: prompting to segment, for example; and the thing could very possibly, if it's fast enough etc. become a foundation for robotics.
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