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US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans

theguardian.com

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Re: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans

#131

Post by potato3732842 »

ants_everywhere wrote: post #97
tehjoker wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the Palestinian resistance has shown, the vietnamese, the cubans, etc it is very difficult to defeat a population that doesn't want to give in even if you have fancy toys and a huge kill ratio.

The Vietnamese and Cubans were funded by the Soviets trying to expand their empire. They were proxy war fighters for a nuclear power. Sure they were kind of rag tag but only because the Soviets considered all soldiers to be disposable.

The out of work tradesman going into the Fairfax VA or Berkley CA Whole Foods (IDK if either of these places have Whole Foods, but they seem like they could) in the year 2030 and dusting the avocados with anthrax won't care whether the anthrax is funded by China or Russia, just that it winds up in the lungs of the people who've run his country into the ground.

Re: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans

#132

Post by burnt-resistor »

harmmonica wrote: post #15

As if I need to make another comment about a, or multiple bubbles, but something has to give and here it's of course the consumer. New and used car prices are at all-time highs (nominal it sounds like, but tell that to someone whose wages haven't kept pace (i.e., almost everyone)). Housing prices are at all-time highs (in terms of price:income so no qualifier needed there). Tariffs are not being 100% eaten by the pro…

The economy is a lie. There is no the singular, hive mind economy. There are several segments and it's growing ever lopsided and moving K-shaped. The so-called "precariat" are hurting very badly. It doesn't matter what sort of imaginary, incestuous valuations NVIDIA et. al. attain because it doesn't trickle down in any measurable fashion. There is an pervasive profit-price spiral of necessities is a huge contributor of ongoing and deepening inflation. And the random tariffs / punitive federal sales taxes are yet another inflationary policy. The ultra rich can and will deny technological un(der)employment is happening until the pitchforks come out, and then blame the poor for being lazy/stupid/slow/unfortunate/antifa/whatever.

Re: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans

#133

Post by mgh95 »

epistasis wrote: post #124
mgh95 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In October of last year, people were betting on Trumps election leading to tariffs leading to a stronger dollar. This trend continued post-election pre-inaguration. Since the tariffs did not materialize to the level expected, the dollar weakened to its levels prior to his election.

Your explanation makes no sense. First, nobody thought that Trump would actually go through with the tariffs because it's an insane plan and that wiser people in the administration would restrain Trump. So the dollar started to devalue when people realized that "holy shit these tariffs might actually happen." The tariffs are way way bigger than anybody expected. The entire goal of the tariffs were to weaken the dolla…

No, ordinarily tariffs result in currency appreciation (see https://www.wto.org/english/blogs_e/ce_ralph_ossa_e/blog_ro_... for an accessible discussion).

But yes: weaking the dollar was the goal, but the US did not achieve that to the degree of something like the Plaza accords.

Re: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans

#134

Post by mgh95 »

epistasis wrote: post #130
mgh95 wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That operates on calendar year. That is primarily due to the rapid appreciation of the USD vs global based after Trumps election on the perception that tariffs would be far higher and more continuous than they actually were. The truth is, the currency markets are roughly where they were about a year ago, with the exception of EUR, but thats a special case which I think is a symbol if a misstep by the ECB.

Yes, the calendar year matches what I was talking about, and more closely matches the current economic policy of the US. It wasn't until February that the real economic and foreign policy of the US became clear, and the full insanity of it all is still sinking in. I'm not sure why your hand-picked list of currencies is revelant, or why your particular dates are relevant. The course for the future looks to be a greate…

> I'm not sure why your hand-picked list of currencies is revelant, or why your particular dates are relevant. The course for the future looks to be a greater devaluation of the US currency.

What other currencies do you believe are important? We pulled 2-5 of the most commonly used reserve currencies and some other ones as well.

Re: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans

#135

Post by watersb »

SeanAnderson wrote: post #45

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCLACBS consumer loan delinquencies up a lot in the last couple of years, tapered over the last year, low relative to historic norms https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS credit card delinquencies are similar https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS home loans delinquencies look amazing right now, to the surprise of noone, since everyone is sitting happy having locked i…

> Right now, commercial rents are locked into untenable rates because the loans are contingent on those rates

Let me get this straight.

A landlord cannot lower the rent, because they took out a loan on the property which promised to the lender that the rent is a particular amount?

> which is resulting in 30%+ unused commercial space in areas like downtown SF.

The loan prevents the landlord from lowering the rent, so the landlord realizes rental income of $0 on the property.

Oh, that's just great.

Re: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans

#136

Post by Freedom2 »

estimator7292 wrote: post #63
ramesh31 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Historically, this has ultimately led to revolutions. Which is why they've spent the last 50 years pitting the lower classes against themselves with meaningless culture wars. In a world with F-16s, Apache helicopters, and panopticon digital surveillance, there will never be armed revolution again (nor would anyone actually want that); the only option is nonviolent resistance. But it'll never happen in the US since w…

Sure, but this time it's not different. The play has always and forever will be to try and force most of the population into a peasant caste be removing education and welfare, as well as setting up nice circular infighting. It will inevitably end up as it always does. Or we'll all die horribly. You know, either way.

Who is trying to remove education and welfare and how are they accomplishing it? I have high doubts people actually want those things removed, especially in a country as great as the US.

Re: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans

#137

Post by jltsiren »

mgh95 wrote: post #105
jltsiren wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EUR was unusually strong from 2004 to 2015. Since then, it has almost always been between $1.07 and $1.20, which I would consider the normal range.

The EUR is unusually strong, in part due to fiscal tightness by ECB (see their balance sheet L2 Liabilities here https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/annual-reports-financial-sta... ) compared to the US. This is having a knock-on effect that the EUR strengthens against the dollar, which actually causes a whole host of problems for an export economy. It's why you see Lagarde calling for a reserve EUR; it's the only way to…

I don't see any evidence that EUR is particularly strong against USD. Except maybe if you take a very short-term perspective. There is always some volatility in exchange rates, and export businesses that cannot tolerate 10% swings in either direction are not viable in the first place.

Re: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans

#138

Post by watersb »

hamdingers wrote: post #109
kulahan wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone else hate busses, and the only response you ever get after mentioning this is "NUH UH BUSSES CAN BE GREAT"? A bus will pretty much always be inferior to a car. Mathematically impossible to run on time. It never gets you where you want to go, just kinda close usually. If one doesn't show up, there is no real feedback without an extensive background metadata system. Never as clean as your own car (unless yo…

> A bus will pretty much always be inferior to a car. I never have to clean a bus, or put gas in it, or change its oil. I don't even have to drive it. I don't have to dedicate a big portion of my property to storing it, just to pay to park it somewhere else when I go out. I'll never get a ticket for leaving it in the wrong place, and I'll never have to go to court because I used it wrong. I don't have to worry about…

> I'll never have to go to court because I used it wrong.

Technically, it's possible to be required to go to court, for some value of "used it wrong".

Or so I'm told.

Re: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans

#139

Post by master_crab »

_heimdall wrote: post #116
ryandrake wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, that $750/mo that you're now not paying can be saved to pay for the occasional repair bill that you're going to face while owning a junker car you didn't take on a loan for. Or, not, if you bought a 1995 Toyota Camry or something which is probably going to outlive you.

Right. I buy old cars, but I'm picky as hell and buy ones that have been taken care of, still have parts availability, and are models with proven reliability. I still recommend anyone buy a later model Buick Lesabre if you find one in good shape. They're very cheap, the 3800 motor is excellent, and are still very comfortable rides that get around 30mpg on the highway.

3800 is in a lot of things. Chevy impala, Monte Carlo, etc. lots of cars benefit from that reliable and easy to maintain engine. Also gets decent gas mileage (not earth shattering but mid-high 20s is friendly to most bank accounts).

Re: US car repossessions surge as more Americans default on auto loans

#140

Post by mgh95 »

jltsiren wrote: post #137
mgh95 wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EUR is unusually strong, in part due to fiscal tightness by ECB (see their balance sheet L2 Liabilities here https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/annual-reports-financial-sta... ) compared to the US. This is having a knock-on effect that the EUR strengthens against the dollar, which actually causes a whole host of problems for an export economy. It's why you see Lagarde calling for a reserve EUR; it's the only way to…

I don't see any evidence that EUR is particularly strong against USD. Except maybe if you take a very short-term perspective. There is always some volatility in exchange rates, and export businesses that cannot tolerate 10% swings in either direction are not viable in the first place.

> I don't see any evidence that EUR is particularly strong against USD. Except maybe if you take a very short-term perspective.

Yes; this is a short term perspective. Europe is functionally an export market and these currency fluctuations hurt badly. For example, Mercedes-Benz had a consolidated profit margin in '22 of around 9%. These swings do either force loss of jobs (bad) or require a devaluation of the currency.4

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