Earlier quoted context omitted.
We’re in the alchemist phase. If I’m being charitable, the medieval stone mason phase. One thing worth pointing out is that the pre-engineering building large structures phase lasted a long time, and building collapses killed a lot of people while we tried to work out the theory. Also it wasn’t really the stone masons who worked out the theory, and many of them were resistant to it.
While alchemy was mostly para-religious wishful thinking, stone masonry has a lot in common with what I want to express: it‘s the tinkering that is accessible to everyone who can lay their hands onto the tools. But I still think the age of nuclear revolution is a better comparison due to a couple of reasons, most importantly the number of very fast feedback loops. While it might have taken years to even build a new i…
Oh and benchmarks for functional performance measurement tend to leak into training data.
Put all those together and I’d bet half of my retirement accounts that the we’re still in the reading chicken entrails phase 20 years from now.