For scale: The 1960's era US Navy submarine I served on had a 78MW reactor, so 10GW is 128 nuclear submarines
OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems
131–140 of 668 posts
Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
For sure a great infrastructure build out -- lets hope the leftover are better energy infrastructure so that whatever comes next in 7 years after the flame out has some great stuff to build on (similar to telco bubble 1.0) and less damaging to planet earth in the long arc.
Yep. The Telco Bust 1.0 along with the Dotcom Bust is what enabled the cloud computing boom, the SaaS boom, and the e-commerce boom by the early-mid 2010s. I think the eventual AI bust will lead to the same thing, as the costs for developing a domain-specific model have cratered over the past couple years. AI/ML (and the infra around it) is overvalued at their current multiples, but the value created it real, and as…
Yeah - no doubt on the eventual productivity gains due to AI/ML (which are real, of course, just like the real gains due to telecom infra buildup), but must an economy go through a bubble first to realize these productivity gains??
It appears that the answer is "more likely yes than not".
Counting some examples:
- self driving / autonomous vehicles (seeing real deployments now with Waymo, but 99% deployment still ahead; meanwhile, $$$ billions of value destroyed in the last 10-15 years with so many startups running out of money, getting acquihired, etc)
- Humanoid robots... (potential bubble?? I don't know of a single commercial deployment today that is worth any solid revenues, but companies keep getting funded left / right)
Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems
#133This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…
I do not think the leveraging is going to end there. I suspect this will be used to justify/secure power generation investments, possibly even nuclear. Likely via one or more of the OpenAI/Altman adjacent power startups.
On the bright side, if lots of power capacity is added and most of the GPUs end up idle, then there might be cheap power available for other uses.
Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems
#134For someone who doesn't know what a gigawat worth of Nvidia systems is, how many high-end H100 or whatever does this get you? My estimates along with some poor-grade GPT research leads me to think it could be nearly 10 million? That does seem insane.
You could think of it as "as much power as is used by NYC and Chicago combined". Which is fucking insanely wasteful.
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Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems
#135This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…
What is this a bubble on? What does said bubble collapsing look like?
Nvidia is giving OpenAi money (through investment) to buy Nvidia chips. The bubble is that Nvidia got that money from its crazy high stock price, the extra investment raises OpenAi’s evaluation and the increased sells raises Nvidia’s evaluation. If the valuations see a correction then spending like this will decrease, further decreasing valuations.
Bubble collapsing looks like enshittification of OpenAI tools as they try to raise revenues. It’ll ripple all throughout tech as everyone is tied into LLMs, and capital will be harder to come by.
Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems
#136This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…
At least the deal is denominated in watts rather than currency which may hyperinflate soon.
Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems
#137This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…
It forces us to confront a question.
How much investment and prioritization in scaling laws is justified?
Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems
#138Did I miss the part where they mention the 10 large nuclear plants needed to power this new operation? Where's all the power coming from for this?
Build this thing in the middle of the desert and you would need around 100 sq mile of solar panels + a fuck load of batteries for it to be energy independent. The solar farm would be around $10 billion which is probably far less than the gpus cost
100 sq km should suffice
Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems
#139To put this into perspective this datacenter would have the land area of Monaco (740 acres) given assumptions of a 80kW/rack per case.
Monaco is 2 km^2 [1].
I'm confused because if I assume each rack takes up 1 square meter I get a much smaller footprint: around 12 hectares or 17 football fields.
And that assumes that the installation is one floor. I don't know much about data centers but I would have thought they'd stack them a bit.
Am I the only person who had to look up how big Monaco was?
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco
[2]: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=10+GW+%2F+%2880kw+%2F+m...
Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems
#140For someone who doesn't know what a gigawat worth of Nvidia systems is, how many high-end H100 or whatever does this get you? My estimates along with some poor-grade GPT research leads me to think it could be nearly 10 million? That does seem insane.
You could think of it as "as much power as is used by NYC and Chicago combined". Which is fucking insanely wasteful.
I dunno.
Google is pretty useful.
It uses >15 TWh per year.
Theoretically, AI could be more useful than that.
Theoretically, in the future, it could be the same amount of useful (or much more) with substantially less power usage.
It could be a short-term crunch to pull-forward (slightly) AI advancements.
Additionally, I'm extremely skeptical they'll actually turn on this many chips using that much energy globally in a reasonable time-frame.
Saying that you're going to make that kind of investment is one thing. Actually getting the power for it is easier said than done.
VC "valuations" are already a joke. They're more like minimum valuations. If OpenAI is worth anywhere near it's current "valuations", Nvidia would be criminally negligent NOT to invest at a 90% discount (the marginal profit on their chips).