131–140 of 197 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't see developed countries to have a "rapidly increasing population" problem.
Practically the whole planet is experiencing population decline now. The poster you're replying to is basing his argument on an obsolete worldview.
I am confused about how to feel about the data the paper is based on. If you look at the paper, the data description is: "Our primary data source is a detailed LinkedIn-based resume dataset provided by Revelio Labs ... We complement the worker resume data with Revelio’s database of job postings, which tracks recruitment activity by the firms since 2021 ... The final sample consists of 284,974 U.S. firms that were suc…
I'm obviously misreading this somehow. How do you have 156m positions dating back to 2015, but far more than that number in a smaller timeframe?
It's pretty clear this is happening. The question is... is this based on existing capability of LLMs to do these jobs? Or are companies doing this on the expectation that AI is advanced enough to pick up the slack? I have observed a disconnect in which management is typically far more optimistic about AI being capable of performing a specific task than are the workers who currently perform that task. And to what exte…
One issue we're running into at my job: we're struggling to find entry-level candidates who aren't lying about what they know by using an LLM. For the tech side, we've reduced behavioral questions and created an interview that allows people to use cursor, LLMs, etc. in the interview - that way, it's impossible to cheat. We have folks build a feature on a fake code base. Unfortunately, more junior folks now seem to st…
The other part is that you can absolutely tell during a live interview when someone is using an LLM to answer.
Interesting. However just because this is true right now doesn't mean it will be true going forward. Unique to the current moment is that there are simultaneously (1) high interest rates and a challenging economy (2) a narrative that AI adoption should enable cutting junior roles. This could lead to companies that would anyway be doing layoffs choosing to lay off or not hire juniors, and replace with AI adoption. To…
>Unique to the current moment is that there are simultaneously (1) high interest rates and a challenging economy (2) a narrative that AI adoption should enable cutting junior roles. I'm not disputing your point, but I'm curious: given that the main headline measures that we tend to see about the US economy right now involve the labour market. How do you establish the counterfactual?
I think we might be seeing this now but headlines get more clicks with AI taking our jobs.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
How do they bring more “growth potential” than a mid level developer with 3-5 years of experience? The average tenure of a developer is 2-3 years. I expect that to increase going forward slightly as the job market continues to suck. But why would I care about the growth of the company when my promotion criteria is based on delivering quarterly or yearly goals? Those goals can much more easily be met by paying slightl…
You’re absolutely right that mid-level hires buy immediate productivity. But “growth potential” isn’t just romanticism — it’s an investable trajectory. With the right project design, feedback loops, and domain exposure, juniors can grow into “multipliers” — people who combine technical skills with adaptability or domain expertise. That’s a kind of return you rarely get from simply adding another mid-level hire. In pr…
You’re not “investing” in anyone if their tenure is going to be 2-3 years with the first one doing negative work.
And why should juniors stay? Because of salary compression and inversion, where HR determines raises. But the free market determines comp for new employees, it makes sense for them to jump ship to make more money. I’ve seen this at every company I’ve worked for from startups, to mid size companies, to boring old enterprise companies to BigTech.
Where even managers can’t fight for employees to get raises at market rates. But they can get an open req to pay at market rates when that employee leaves.
And who is incentivize to care about “the organization” when line level managers and even directors or incentivized to care about the next quarter to the next year?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
As an occasional uni TA, I'm leaning toward banning LLM for easy coursework while allowing it on more difficult & open-ended ones. Pretty sure it's a self-destructive move for a CS or software engineering student to pass foundational courses like discrete math, intro to programming, algorithm & data structure using LLM. You can't learn how to write if all you do is read. LLM will 1-shot the homework, and the student…
Exactly. When I was in school even in 80's, it was common to have to hand write out a program during an exam. You had to know stuff in the old days.
I am confused about how to feel about the data the paper is based on. If you look at the paper, the data description is: "Our primary data source is a detailed LinkedIn-based resume dataset provided by Revelio Labs ... We complement the worker resume data with Revelio’s database of job postings, which tracks recruitment activity by the firms since 2021 ... The final sample consists of 284,974 U.S. firms that were suc…
> For these firms, we observe 156,765,776 positions dating back to 2015 and 245,838,118 job postings since 2021, of which 198,773,384 successfully matched with their raw text description." I'm obviously misreading this somehow. How do you have 156m positions dating back to 2015, but far more than that number in a smaller timeframe?
"Our analysis draws on a new dataset that combines LinkedIn resume and job-posting data from Revelio Labs. The dataset covers nearly 285,000 U.S. firms, more than 150 million employment spells from roughly 62 million unique workers between 2015 and 2025, and over 245 million job postings."
I guess we can read that as saying the authors identified 62 million workers who held 150 million positions over the 2015-2025 time window.
I'm still deeply skeptical about the underlying data. The 62 million represents a huge percentage of employed people in the U.S. in any of the years 2015-2025. This source shows 148 million/yr to 164 million/yr employed over that timeframe:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/269959/employment-in-the-united-states/
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>It's not hard if the company cares at all. It's pretty hard for a non-big tech company to pay big tech level salaries.
And most of my friends and colleagues would take a full remote role that pays half what big tech, 5 days in office pays. Add in an extra week of PTO and you have a great pitch to devs.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You’re absolutely right that mid-level hires buy immediate productivity. But “growth potential” isn’t just romanticism — it’s an investable trajectory. With the right project design, feedback loops, and domain exposure, juniors can grow into “multipliers” — people who combine technical skills with adaptability or domain expertise. That’s a kind of return you rarely get from simply adding another mid-level hire. In pr…
Of course I meant 3-5 years of experience not 35 years of experience. :) I just edited it. You’re not “investing” in anyone if their tenure is going to be 2-3 years with the first one doing negative work. And why should juniors stay? Because of salary compression and inversion, where HR determines raises. But the free market determines comp for new employees, it makes sense for them to jump ship to make more money. I…
My broader point is that when these short-term incentives dominate, organizations (and societies) lose the capacity to build for the long term. That’s exactly why governance frameworks matter: they help create safeguards against purely short-term dynamics — whether in HR policy or in AI policy.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Practically the whole planet is experiencing population decline now. The poster you're replying to is basing his argument on an obsolete worldview.
This isn't accurate. Birth rates are declining but population is still increasing in most countries.