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I'm worried it might get bad

danielmiessler.com

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Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#131

Post by CalRobert »

quesera wrote: post #119
CalRobert wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Our entire economic system is built around ensuring we have scarcities of necessities (housing, mostly) so workers need to outcompete their peers to have access to said necessities. This results in reduced work weeks being a non starters as those who would like to avail of them are outbid by those who forego them.

I think this is probably correct. But I'm not sure that 40hrs is the sweet spot. Other countries have chosen differently (with comparisons difficult to draw). There are several competing influences here: inflation, AI productivity gains (TBD but nonzero), existing legislation around health insurance obligations, social/economic inertia, etc. And definitely others I'm not smart enough to think of! It'd be interesting,…

I think a lot of people would love to live frugally and work less but it’s hard to pull off. Wage arbitrage in low CoL locations works with remote work but that’s been drying up. And of course access to health care and good education is an issue if you require either.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#132

Post by quesera »

evklein wrote: post #118
sauwan wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably, AI has advanced in 10 years?

Do you believe there's a threshold to how good this stuff can get, or do you think it's all infinite upside?

Obviously not infinite, but humans have very real limitations too. We've all seen them.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#134

Post by AstroBen »

righthand wrote: post #117
AstroBen wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I shared your view a year ago. Hell half my posts here on HN are arguing against the annoying hype. Today I make heavy use of AI and my code quality has gone up, not down. It's better tested, better factored, with better error handling covering more edge cases AI code is only buggy if no-one is guiding or reviewing it I'm not sure how long we'll need someone in the middle to actually review the code

I am senior developer and have easily and successfully avoided using Llm development these last few years. Nothing has changed for me and my team mates who do use it are slower than me and often don’t know what the Pr actually does. You chose to invest in the downward career slope. That’s why your opinion has changed. If you continued to resist it you wouldn’t be looking to remove yourself from the auditing/coding po…

How is investing in something that improves my productivity and output quality a downward career slope? Continuing to use a hand saw when there are power tools available seems like the downward slope..

If AI gets to a point where I'm fully able to be removed from auditing/coding positions.. well there won't be any coding positions left for anyone

> often don’t know what the Pr actually does

this is on them for being lazy. I thoroughly review the code AI produces. I don't commit it if I don't understand it

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#135

Post by selfhoster11 »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #125
edoceo wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do folk "need" to work? To justify their existence? Don't we have a duty of care for fellow humans?

Curiously, and this is probably just me, but I find I need to work in order to enjoy (value) my leisure time. Odd, I know.

OK, then work. If I enjoyed 5:30am wake-up times, I wouldn't require others to replicate it.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#136

Post by motorest »

I think the so-called elites are already smelling blood in the water, from the way some billionaires are investing in doomsday bunkers.

What strikes me as odd as that, even with all the signs of an impeding crisis, US's oligarchs still double down on eliminating the little social safety nets that the US managed to provide to it's population. It's as if they learned nothing from the french revolution, and they think they can exist in a world where society succumbs to poverty and mysery. No wonder we're seeing tech bros pushing for a US dictatorship.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#137

Post by fusslo »

evklein wrote: post #122
fusslo wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking about this lately. While we engineers understand how to judge and evaluate AI solutions, I am not sure Business Owners (BO) care. BO's are ok with a certain percentage of bugs/rework/inefficiency/instability. And the tradeoff of eliminating (or marginalizing) Engineering may be worth the increased percentage of unfavorable outcomes.

Probably depends on BO/stakeholder as well. B2B solution that has a low risk of killing anyone? Maybe fuck it, let the model have its way. Technology that controls software that keeps people alive, controls infrastructure, etc., uhhhh I don't think so. I guess we're just waiting for the first news story of someone's pacemaker going haywire and shocking them to death because the monitoring code was vibed through to pr…

Isn't the sector for software that is life-critical really small? medical devices, and maybe some control software? Oh and probably defense too

I don't feel much better ( as someone who has spent their career in consumer electronics )

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#138

Post by thegrim33 »

So, the guy who's a founder of an AI company and makes money if he convinces people to buy into his AI project, is making some alarmist/doomer post about how crazy AI has gotten and how many jobs it's supposedly taking. He presents such thoughts as if they're some gnawing worry he just randomly needs to share.

Well, what do you know, the author just happens to sell an AI system that aims to "make humans better, rather than replacing them".

Surely his takes on the topic of how good AI is, and AI taking jobs, is impartial and objective, and not tied in any way to how he makes money if he manages to convince people of such thoughts.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#139

Post by thisisit »

There has been convergence of many events:

1. The tax deduction change where costs couldn't be classified as an expense.

2. The saturation in people joining coding. At one point in time everyone wanted to be part of a bootcamp to earn that sweet coding salary.

3. Rising interest rates means the era of borrowing at low costs is over.

etc.

AI is last on my list for the reasons that people are being laid off. And its not because AI isn't helping people, rather it isn't helping people enough to justify the current layoffs.

And lets be honest - AI and employment is the hot topic right now. You should expect executives to say that they are jumping on the AI bandwagon and looking at time savings.

Once upon a time everyone wanted to add ML to their product. This is just going with the flow. Otherwise their stock prices will take a massive hit. Others yet want to showcase that they are doing everything to extract better margins. These statements can be slightly deceiving.

What does 30% of the code mean exactly? How much of it is going into the products and making into the market?

For now, AI is a convenient scapegoat. Maybe it becomes a force to reckon with and truly leads to people being laid off. Not today.

Re: I'm worried it might get bad

#140

Post by jofla_net »

xunil2ycom wrote: post #89

If humans are replaced en masse by AI agents, companies will save billions until there is nobody left who can pay for their products and/or services because we're all destitute and on the dole. I'm scheduled to retire in about 9 years. I'm not sure I'm going to make it that long.

Very true, If you take the number of tech jobs lost over the last couple years(in article) and multiply out, say, roughly $125K gross salary yearly, cut that in half for taxes (and things i missed) and you still are out tens of billions of dollars that people wont have to spend on things, big things.

I don't see how nobody will feel that loss of purchasing... Then again, we all know how detached the market is, someone from Schwab just yesterday telling me how things have "never been better."

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