Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

electrek.co

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

131–140 of 198 posts

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#131

Post by RajT88 »

root_axis wrote: post #126
RajT88 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So - the cooked-ness of Tesla may depend on what you think Musk's goal was with Tesla. If you believe he was out to change the world - maybe he'll let Tesla die. It's unlikely they are going to accomplish much else at this point, better, smarter more experienced competitors are sweeping the board. If you believe he's out to make as much money as he can, he'll probably course correct at some point. Lidar it is clear w…

> If you believe he's out to make as much money as he can Well, twitter shows that he'll burn money if it suits his ego. However, I think his bigger problem is his promise to all existing Tesla owners that FSD would use cameras. If Tesla switches their approach to lidar they'll probably be facing a class action suit from all those camera-only Tesla buyers.

If I owned a Tesla which I paid for the FSD package, I wouldn't care if it had to use LIDAR or not, as long as I didn't have to pay for any extra hardware.

I was a little annoyed at the VW cheating Diesel scandal, but they had the good sense to make the modifications free and pay you almost 7k in "We're Sorry" money, which helps make up for the loss of fuel efficiency.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#132

Post by honeybadger1 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #129
honeybadger1 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who has tried both, FSD is still so much better in my experience. I use FSD in Miami and drive down to Key West often and it drives more than 99% of the trip and it just makes the drive so much more enjoyable. Even with all the recent road work going on, it handles it almost without error. I have the occasional take over due to things like it not wanting to get over soon enough into a lane for a turn or wh…

> it just makes the drive so much more enjoyable If I had to hazard a hypothesis, I think we'll see two forms of self-driving kit make it into the market. One that's aimed at being enjoyable, even at the expense of edge-case performance. Another that's aimed at being effective, even at the expense of breadth of use. Folks who fundamentally enjoy driving their cars will probably be appealed to by the former. Those who…

I agree with that. I use FSD for interstate driving primarily and also open road driving like the Keys where its just flat and open highway. Inner city for me I like to drive, because I am admittedly an aggressive driver, mainly because Miami calls for it(to get into lanes, to get out of a driveway or deck, etc if you're slow you get nowhere) but lately I have let it rip on my commute through Brickell and downtown and it has gotten more bold.

I may be going out on a limb, but I think Tesla is popular with people who like to drive but also like technology. I work for one of the largest software companies in Miami and almost all the tech workers have a Tesla and when they talk about it, it's like talking about a video game system they are currently obsessed with.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#133

Post by ortusdux »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

"I have $100k+ in Tesla puts" would make a great bumper sticker!

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#134

Post by AlexandrB »

scoofy wrote: post #127
msgodel wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of what happens theta and IV crush will probably wipe you out. I don't like Tesla's stock but I don't touch it just because both the stock and options tend to be way overpriced.

It really is wild that investments are driven by the marginal investor, not the median investor. 99% of us can think that Tesla is trash, but 1% of world investors is an absolute ton of capital.

You're more complaining that investors who don't own a stock have no influence on its price. Which is true, but I don't see a workable way to change that.

The median investor in Tesla, on the other hand, seems to be happy with the situation since they're not selling.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#135

Post by AlexandrB »

jjav wrote: post #118
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

> I have over $100k in Tesla puts. I also have Tesla puts but that is brave! While extremely overvalued by any metric, Musk has also been somehow able to keep the stock flying high for years and years on the force of hyperbolic lies (full self driving only a few month away forever) which most of the market keeps believing. It's a fascinating counterexample to the idea that the stock market can't be fooled. So I only…

It's almost a meme stock at this point. Trying to time a market reckoning is very difficult because investor interest is highly decoupled from fundamentals.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#136

Post by [deleted] »

AlexandrB wrote: post #134
scoofy wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It really is wild that investments are driven by the marginal investor, not the median investor. 99% of us can think that Tesla is trash, but 1% of world investors is an absolute ton of capital.

You're more complaining that investors who don't own a stock have no influence on its price. Which is true, but I don't see a workable way to change that. The median investor in Tesla, on the other hand, seems to be happy with the situation since they're not selling.

[deleted]

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#137

Post by danans »

blindriver wrote: post #107
danans wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But Elon has killed his brand with his politics, and the robotaxi initiative is a desperate attempt to gain ground. But it's going to kill someone and it will be 100% on him because he's the one pushing this when there's no way it will ever be ready for real world situations the way Waymo is. What if his political allies allow and enable him to push this upon the populace despite it killing people. After all, other…

You mean his political allies that he accused of pedophilia?

I don't think that he's accused Texas' governor of that, and that might be the more important relationship in that state. After all, consider how much California helped Tesla early on.

Also, if you think that accusation you mentioned is going matter in the long run, it is possible you are holding them to a higher standard than they hold themselves to.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#138

Post by AlexandrB »

jjcm wrote: post #11

I own two Teslas, and drive between Portland and Seattle about once every 10 days, using FSD nearly the entire way. FSD has gotten amazingly better over the last year, it can and has taken me from driveway to driveway between two cities... when the weather is nice. As soon as there is any weather however, things start to fall apart. It's very clear to me that vision alone wont be the solution to FSD, and is the main…

FSD: Designed by Tesla for California.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#139

Post by AlexandrB »

jjcm wrote: post #120
coliveira wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For someone living in Seattle, a product that requires good weather is close to useless...

It does limit things. I will say though, from a psychological standpoint, it does do a good job of making me value FSD more! I'm always surprised how much I miss having FSD when I have to drive myself now. Very much a, "ugh I have to drive with my hands??" reaction. I do find it interesting that it's valuable enough for me that I'll plan my drives between the two cities around the weather, so I can have it on for the…

To me, it will only be valuable if the automaker accepts liability for accidents while using FSD. This not only provides some direct accountability for bugs but means I can actually relax while being driven. Anything short of that means that I'll have to keep as much focus on the road as usual since I'm still legally responsible for what happens.
Post reply on HN