If I am not mistaken, Trump said earlier that it's a great time to buy. Isn't there a chance that someone acted on that, seeing it as a hint?
$70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
131–140 of 480 posts
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It'll get a lot worse before it gets better. Importantly, there's no guarantee it's actually going to get better. We like to pretend that human existence has some trajectory towards "justice" or "prosperity". I don't think that impulse does us justice. Stalin/Lenin could have won. Hitler could have won, Napoleon could have conquered and held. It could just get worse.
Oppression and corruption is expensive. Systems based on them are not going to be competitive in the long run.
That may be the very long run. Taking it strictly, Russia never had real democracy. And they are trying hard to export that model.
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#133Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unless I'm totally misreading this, it wasn't a 2.5m trade, it was 80c per option at 30,000 of them, less than $30k The option to buy at 2.5m was not an obligation to do so
Yes you are misreading because options have a contract size of 100. So you can't buy "one option", only a contract of 100 options at minimum. Which means 80 cents x 100 = 80 bucks per contract. Multiply by 30,000 and you get =~ $2.5 million. And it's bullshit that you can reliably make money of such low probability options. Even if you do, you never put $2.5 million on something with a huge probability of ending in a…
> And it's bullshit that you can reliably make money of such low probability options. Even if you do, you never put $2.5 million on something with a huge probability of ending in a complete loss, these deep out of the money options are essentially lottery tickets.
Nassim Taleb: "I was effectively short volatility. [...] I would have been harmed by small movements. I was set up to be harmed by small movement and gain if the move continues to something very large." [1]
He also described in one of his books that this strategy works because on most days you will lose money, and most people psychologically don't like that. But you have to ignore that and keep betting until you suddenly make a lot of money.
In case you don't know Taleb and would like to point out that he probably is a fraud, please note that his books and articles have been cited 39946 times according to Google Scholar. See also his Wikipedia [2]. Although I am aware that these are all popularity-based metrics, I unfortunately don't have a better metric available. I invite you to read his books for yourself and make your own decision on his credibility.
> I do buy slightly OTM options and it's barely profitable and even so I think mostly out of pure luck. No way would someone have done this trade without inside info.
Okay if the discussion is whether this particular trade was unlikely I can agree, but your "No way" makes no sense to me.
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#134These sort of trades happy fairly regularly, before market breaking news in individual stock names. Just search for SEC insider trading cases. When they happen in options they are often pretty obvious unless the market is moving with real momentum the same way, and even then, option sellers will report you if they think it is suspicious. (By obvious, I mean, regulators should start asking questions - of course there…
> These sort of trades happy fairly regularly
I think the post established that this volume or size of spike is unique before any market-shifting news event coming out of the government in recent decades. The "sort" of transaction is irrelevant except that it's risky and thus relatively low volume normally.
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#135While I have no doubt that insider trading happens quite regularly, I would not jump to that conclusion here. IIRC the previous day, big Wall street names were advocating for a pause in tariffs . So a lot of people placed bets accordingly. Also staking 2.5M is "small change" for true insiders.
>Also staking 2.5M is "small change" for true insiders. Well, if it was insider trading, Trump and his billionaire friends wouldn't invest just 2.5 million. That's a meager sum for the very wealthy. Maybe they've even done insider trading but in ways that weren't so obvious.
[deleted]
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
I recently read someone's comment here stating that "trust is efficient." What we are witnessing is the devolution of the USA from a high-trust to low-trust business environment. "Low-trust business environment" is the euphemism we have used to describe other countries, where corruption is rampant. This is so sad to watch.
Not just sad to watch . Would a country with a low-trust business environment be allowed to have such a huge mountain of government debt, and continue to have its currency be the world's reserve currency? A lot of sadness hinges on those considerations.
Those particular aspects are only good for Americans though. That those two things are ending is good for basically everybody else, from Brazilians, Chinese and Canadians to Frenchmen.
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#137While I have no doubt that insider trading happens quite regularly, I would not jump to that conclusion here. IIRC the previous day, big Wall street names were advocating for a pause in tariffs . So a lot of people placed bets accordingly. Also staking 2.5M is "small change" for true insiders.
> So a lot of people placed bets accordingly
But why not earlier in the day? Why this unique volume spike then? The one $2.5M is just a sample trade, part of a historic spike.
No one's jumping to conclusions, but it should trigger an investigation.
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#138Earlier quoted context omitted.
there's no reason for the USD to be the reserve currency, being the currency of a country that doesn't produce anything anymore
But does provide services the entire world depends on.
it's the other way round, the military maintains the world order, the currency is used as reserve, and they get to provide services that nobody else can provide while they're top dog. they are not on a trajectory to remain top dog for very long.
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#139Who lost money during this deal? Or generally who indirectly paid these lucky gamblers?
The poors. It's always the poors
Re: $70M in 60 Seconds: How Insider Info Helped Someone 28x Their Money
#140Earlier quoted context omitted.
You keep the receipts for about 4 years and you speak up one minute after the government changes. You get it done long before the following election.
With a bit of luck, you only have to wait for 2 years, when Congress changes hands.
Bold to assume there are going to be elections.
All it needs is some kind of emergency, genuine, imaginary or self-inflicted, and ‘Oh no, we can’t possibly hold elections until our time of national crisis is over.’