The US exports alot of virtual goods, that is like technological services. I reckon non-US countries should start tariffing all US based internet services as a reciprocal tariff if there's a trade imbalance between goods versus services.
Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]
131–140 of 200 posts
Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
I started believing that all these, are just side effects of Americans and their leadership not accepting the loss of their global leadership to China. They know they can’t pull a Plaza Accord like they did with Japan in the 80s to slow they down. Now hoping for some hail marys. In the worst case, a good chunk of people will be poorer, less women with jobs, which should result in a bump in birth rates. No data points…
I believe whichever party attempts to do this will be voted out in 2 years. It's really really hard to get people to accept a lower standard of living. The only scenario I can think of is during wartime, but the US is pissing off all of their allies.
> The only scenario I can think of is during wartime
well, it is not surprising then that war seems to be a realistic possibility at the moment.
(doesn't matter with whom, we have always been at war with Eastasia).
Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]
#133As a European this whole debate i sickening. Trade deficit is a blunt and ineffective way to model international trade on this level, but it is easy to point at and say "look at this large bad number!" which is exactly what is going on. People are primed to interact with that through social media, etc. The American trend currently is that any trade deficit is bad. It simply isnt. It is idiotic to state so. The whole…
> What is missing from the debate is that import/export equilibrium should be achieved on a global level, not on a national level.
On global level it's always balanced. (How can it be otherwise?)
Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]
#134Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are valuable things out there other than "physical goods".
Well, how are going to charge for them? For example, how to deal with Steam? most of the games I buy there (Baldurs Gate 3 for e.g.) are not made in the USA.
At this point, capital controls might be back on the menu?
Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
The t-shirt metaphor is completely unjust - there is no value there for national security nor strategic autonomy. Consider instead: - Semiconductor low-end fabrication (Taiwan, Korea) - Basic electronics: circuit boards, USB devices, .. (China) - Auto parts (Mexico, China, Germany) - Generic drugs (India, China) The reality is that the US is not the ultimate global hegemon anymore and therefore offshoring industries…
What's funny is the tariffs announced a couple day sago explicitly excluded semi conductors and pharmaceuticals. We are literally about to tariff t-shirts but not those more strategic industries.
> What's funny is the tariffs announced a couple day sago explicitly excluded semi conductors and pharmaceuticals.
They're "excluded" because they're coming later. It was announced they'd be specific 1s in that area.
Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]
#136I feel like a lot of people are really getting stuck on the Trump stuff and missing Buffetts core argument. Here's a pretty simple guy: When the US has a trade deficit with China, it tries to balance that out by issuing debt in the form of treasuries. As more treasuries get issued to foreign nations, the risk to American sovereignty increases. People really forget Japan's blitz on US real estate and businesses in the…
American sovereignty is a matter of geography, firepower, culture, and law. It’s not easy to threaten.
And private trade deficits are not balanced by sovereign debt, they are balanced by private debt and foreign direct investment, which don’t threaten sovereignty.
The 1990s U.S. reaction to Japanese business success was primarily driven by popular xenophobia, not economic analysis. It was resolved by the dotcom bubble, an explosion of American innovation that changed the conversation. Not by government policy.
Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]
#137Strange. I, as a UK citizen, don't seem to buy almost any physical USA goods at all.
And yet here you are on HN. Turns out there is more to an economy in 2025 than physical goods.
But as I keep on pointing out the tariff is on PHYSICAL goods. It's probably next to impossible to tax digital stuff.
Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]
#138A long time ago, Britain was the dominant economic power in the world. Britain had a massive trade deficit with India. It imported far more from India than it exported to India. But what Britain did was import massive amounts from India and made high value goods at home and provided high value services that couldn't be provided elsewhere. Should it have flipped the other way? In 1800, should Britain have suddenly shi…
> to balance the trade deficit?
Let's talk about the all the software exports that got "converted" into a "service" i.e. SaaS / PaaS / IaaS 1st. Not to mention previously we'd have CD / DVD / etc that are now also "services".
Where's the trade deficit again?
Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]
#139I feel like a lot of people are really getting stuck on the Trump stuff and missing Buffetts core argument. Here's a pretty simple guy: When the US has a trade deficit with China, it tries to balance that out by issuing debt in the form of treasuries. As more treasuries get issued to foreign nations, the risk to American sovereignty increases. People really forget Japan's blitz on US real estate and businesses in the…
American sovereignty is a matter of geography, firepower, culture, and law. It’s not easy to threaten. And private trade deficits are not balanced by sovereign debt, they are balanced by private debt and foreign direct investment, which don’t threaten sovereignty. The 1990s U.S. reaction to Japanese business success was primarily driven by popular xenophobia, not economic analysis. It was resolved by the dotcom bubbl…
It's hard to ignore the implosion of the Japanese real estate bubble as a contributor of receding Japanese influence in the US since then. The Plaza Accords are widely attributed to this.
Re: Growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us (2003) [pdf]
#140This looks like the end of story is that the US will consume less, "more expensive" and home made. I think it will have disastrous consequences for the U.S IF the rest of the world keeps trading free. There will be more jobs in the U.S but in the end will become a more inefficient market.
That wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing if it meant a flattening of inequality however I don't think that is on the cards.