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Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

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Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#131

Post by deadbabe »

unsupp0rted wrote: post #35
toomuchtodo wrote: post #24

Microsoft CEO Admits That AI Is Generating Basically No Value - https://futurism.com/microsoft-ceo-ai-generating-no-value Bit of a click bait title, but it certainly seems like the realization is setting in that the hype has exceeded near term realistic expectations and some are walking back claims (for whatever reason; honesty, derisking against investor securities suits, poor capital allocation, etc). Nadella appea…

Nadella is looking for the world to grow at 10% due to AI enhancement, like it did during the industrial revolution. That seems like a low bar because it already is- it's just not equally distributed yet. My own productivity has grown far more than 10% thanks to AI, and I don't just mean in terms of dev. It reads my bloodwork results, speeds up my ability to repair a leak in my toilet tank, writes a concise "no I won…

Unless you’re producing 10% more money with AI you’re not doing shit.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#132

Post by qgin »

heresie-dabord wrote: post #94
qgin wrote: post #22

A few things from the Dwarkesh interview with Satya: * He sees data center leases getting cheaper in near future due to everyone building * He’s investing big in AI, but in every year there needs to be a rough balance between capacity and need for capacity * He doesn’t necessarily believe in fast takeoff AGI (just yet) * Even if there is fast takeoff AGI, he thinks human messiness will slow implementation * It won’t…

Is this the transcript of the interview (podcast) with Dwarkesh? https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/satya-nadella Because if so, > He doesn’t necessarily believe in fast takeoff AGI (just yet) the term "fast takeoff AGI" does not appear in the transcript.

Some paraphrasing on my part, but what he does say is at odds with fast takeoff AGI. He describes AI as a tool that gradually changes human work at a speed that humans adapt to over time.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#134

Post by coliveira »

thagsF wrote: post #44
unsupp0rted wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nadella is looking for the world to grow at 10% due to AI enhancement, like it did during the industrial revolution. That seems like a low bar because it already is- it's just not equally distributed yet. My own productivity has grown far more than 10% thanks to AI, and I don't just mean in terms of dev. It reads my bloodwork results, speeds up my ability to repair a leak in my toilet tank, writes a concise "no I won…

And Henry Ford would reply: "Who is going to buy the cars?" We have been living in a fake economy for quite some time where money is printed and distributed to the "tech" sector. Which isn't really "tech", but mostly entertainment (YouTube, Netflix, Facebook, ...). Growth of the economy means nothing. The money that has been printed goes to shareholders. What the common man gets is inflation and job losses. If you wa…

> If you want to grow the real economy, build houses and reduce the cost of living.

Yes, I wonder why it is so hard for Western countries to understand that there's no future in a place where housing is more expensive than your average salary. If may look cool for a few years until most people have left or are living on the streets.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#135

Post by vipshek »

geuis wrote: post #56
unsupp0rted wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nadella is looking for the world to grow at 10% due to AI enhancement, like it did during the industrial revolution. That seems like a low bar because it already is- it's just not equally distributed yet. My own productivity has grown far more than 10% thanks to AI, and I don't just mean in terms of dev. It reads my bloodwork results, speeds up my ability to repair a leak in my toilet tank, writes a concise "no I won…

All I hear is anecdotal statements from people claiming LLMs have made them some percent more productive. Yet few actually say how or demonstrate it. For the last year, I've tried all sorts of models both as hosted services and running locally with llama.cpp or ollama. I've used both the continue.dev vscode extension and cursor more recently. The results have been frustrating at best. The user interface of the tools…

I would like to propose a moratorium on these sorts of “AI coding is good” or “AI coding sucks” comments without any further context.

This comment is like saying, “This diet didn’t work for me” without providing any details about your health circumstances. What’s your weight? Age? Level of activity?

In this context: What language are you working in? What frameworks are you using? What’s the nature of your project? How legacy is your codebase? How big is the codebase?

If we all outline these factors plus our experiences with these tools, then perhaps we can collectively learn about the circumstances when they work or don’t work. And then maybe we can make them better for the circumstances where they’re currently weak.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#136

Post by jajko »

qgin wrote: post #61
djtango wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Even if there is fast takeoff AGI, he thinks human messiness will slow implementation Five years ago during covid all these clunky legacy businesses couldn't figure out a CSV let alone APIs but suddenly with AGI they are going to become tech masters and know how to automate and processize their entire operations? I found it very amusing that at the turn of the decade "digitalisation" was a buzzword as Amazon was ap…

I think you don’t have widespread adoption until AI takes the form of a plug-and-play “remote employee”. You click a button on Microsoft Teams and hire “Bob” who joins your team org, gets an account like any other employee, interacts over email, chat, video calls, joins meetings, can use all your software in whatever state it’s currently in. It has to be a brownfield solution because most of the world is brownfield.

Completely unusable in any bank, or almost any organization dealing with data secrecy. You have complex, often mandatory processes to onboard folks. Sure, these can be improved but hiring some 'Bob' would be far from smooth sailing.

Big enough corps will eventually have their own trusted 'Bobs' just like they have their own massive cluster farms (no, AWS et al is not a panacea and its far from cheap&good solution).

Giving any form of access to some remote code into internal network of a company? Opsec guys would never ack that, there is and always will be malice coming from potentially all angles.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#137

Post by tonyhart7 »

coliveira wrote: post #134
thagsF wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And Henry Ford would reply: "Who is going to buy the cars?" We have been living in a fake economy for quite some time where money is printed and distributed to the "tech" sector. Which isn't really "tech", but mostly entertainment (YouTube, Netflix, Facebook, ...). Growth of the economy means nothing. The money that has been printed goes to shareholders. What the common man gets is inflation and job losses. If you wa…

> If you want to grow the real economy, build houses and reduce the cost of living. Yes, I wonder why it is so hard for Western countries to understand that there's no future in a place where housing is more expensive than your average salary. If may look cool for a few years until most people have left or are living on the streets.

"there's no future in a place where housing is more expensive than your average salary."

don't get me wrong, everyone want cheaper housing but not their house

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#138

Post by _heimdall »

qgin wrote: post #129
typewithrhythm wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a resource problem; everyone inside the system has no real incentive to do anything innovative; improving something incrementally is more likely to be seen as extra work by your colleagues and be detrimental to the person who implemented it. What's more likely is a significantly better system is introduced somewhere, NHS can't keep up and is rebuilt by an external. (Or more likely it becomes a inferior syste…

I think this is where the AGI employee succeeds where other automation doesn’t. The AGI employee doesn’t require the organization to change. It’s an agent that functions like a regular employee in the same exact system with all of its inefficiencies, except that it can do way more inefficient work for a fraction of the cost of a human.

Assuming we get to AGI and companies are willing to employ them in lieu of a human employee, why would they stop at only replacing small pieces of the org rather than replacing it entirely with AGI?

AGI, by most definitions at least, would be better than most people at most things. Especially if you take OpenAI's definition, which boils it down only to economic value, a company would seemingly always be better off replacing everything with AGI.

Maybe more likely. AGI would just create superior businesses from scratch and put human companies out if business.

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#139

Post by nyeah »

infecto wrote: post #102
alexvitkov wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If LLM chatbots are making you vastly more productive in a field, you are in the bottom 20% of that field. They're still useful tools for exploring new disciplines, but if you're say a programmer and you think ChatGPT or DeepSeek is good at programming, that's a good sign you need to start improving.

If you have to tell others that then perhaps some introspection for yourself might be helpful. Comes across more as denial than constructive commentary. I do believe the benefit decreases the more senior or familiar the work is but there is still a noticeable benefit and I think it largely depends on the velocity and life cycle of the product. I think you get less benefit the slower the velocity or the more mature of…

I see a gap between "vastly more productive" and "noticeable benefit".

Re: Microsoft cancels leases for AI data centers, analyst says

#140

Post by sevensor »

qgin wrote: post #129
typewithrhythm wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a resource problem; everyone inside the system has no real incentive to do anything innovative; improving something incrementally is more likely to be seen as extra work by your colleagues and be detrimental to the person who implemented it. What's more likely is a significantly better system is introduced somewhere, NHS can't keep up and is rebuilt by an external. (Or more likely it becomes a inferior syste…

I think this is where the AGI employee succeeds where other automation doesn’t. The AGI employee doesn’t require the organization to change. It’s an agent that functions like a regular employee in the same exact system with all of its inefficiencies, except that it can do way more inefficient work for a fraction of the cost of a human.

This is a huge selling point, and it will really differentiate the orgs that adopt it from those who don’t. Eventually the whole organization will become as inscrutable as the agents that operate it. From the executive point of view this is indistinguishable from having human knowledge workers. It’s going to be interesting to see what happens to an organization like that when it faces disruptive threats that require rapid changes to its operating model. Many human orgs fall apart faced by this kind of challenge. How will an extra jumbo pattern matcher do?
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