Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995) • Hacker News Board

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#131

Post by pseudalopex » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:26 PM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #108

kennysoona wrote: post #39

I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. It really is crazy to see the way the US is going. I remember reading every time in history an emerging superpower was replacing a declining power, the declining power got antsy and shot first, leading to them getting whooped by the e…

> I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. Aye. It's illogical to call to "Make America Great *Again* " while also claiming there's no decline. Logic isn't how politics works, so that doesn't stop it.

> It's illogical to call to "Make America Great Again" while also claiming there's no decline.

The logic is undiminished potential hobbled by weak leaders, sinister cabals, and their enablers.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#132

Post by pseudalopex » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:27 PM UTC

the_clarence wrote: post #80

MangoCoffee wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is going to replace US? China? Its economy is on the decline with deflation, debts, real estates problem...etc. Europe? Japan?

The problem is that China is still self sufficient. Huge country with a single timezone and great infrastructure and now has the expertise to produce for itself and enough people to buy its own products. Sure there's going to be some instability but even then the dictatorship is helping in preventing people to go too crazy. There's a reason musk is pushing for babies: the US is mostly empty land with a few large citi…

What is the relevance of a single time zone?

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#133

Post by ben_w » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:29 PM UTC

pseudalopex wrote: post #131

ben_w wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. Aye. It's illogical to call to "Make America Great *Again* " while also claiming there's no decline. Logic isn't how politics works, so that doesn't stop it.

> It's illogical to call to "Make America Great Again " while also claiming there's no decline. The logic is undiminished potential hobbled by weak leaders, sinister cabals, and their enablers.

What, the cabinet? :P

But seriously, even last time, with 2016's MAGA slogans including "drain the swamp", there's a gap between "great but we could be better if not for them" and the implicit absent greatness of the initials forming MAGA.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#134

Post by pseudalopex » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:31 PM UTC

Gormo wrote: post #117

vlan0 wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>That's a vague slogan, not a meaningful strategy to accomplish anything of consequence. Of course. The vast majority of America needs "sound bites" of info. Wish this wasn't the case. But it's worked for decades. >Money is just a tool. The resources and incentives that the money is being spent on already exist, and it's being used to further ambitions and goals that were always present. Getting "money out of politic…

> Super PACs/Citizens United....this is what he's targeting. And this is part of the problem. Citizens United was a bog standard first amendment ruling that has been targeted by an aggressive misinformation campaign by a faction that wants the unprecedented power to censor political discourse, and people are eating up the misinformation. > While his policies are a big part of his platform, what really resonates with…

> Citizens United was a bog standard first amendment ruling that has been targeted by an aggressive misinformation campaign by a faction that wants the unprecedented power to censor political discourse, and people are eating up the misinformation.

Everyone who disagrees with me is gullible and misinformed.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#135

Post by asacrowflies » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:37 PM UTC

Gormo wrote: post #86

asacrowflies wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering how NEW citizens United United is...and how every other democracy seems to be able to handle this somewhat sanely... Why is it so hard to imagine? It wasn't like this even in 1995...

Well, 1995 was seven years before Congress passed the statute that the FEC was misinterpreting in the Citizens United case. The Citizens United ruling had essentially noting to do with "money in politics" and was just a bog standard first amendment ruling against a federal agency attempting to read the power to regulate political speech into a statute that had been passed a mere eight years earlier. Contrary to the m…

This is just lying by ommision or gaslighting.... Yes citizens United opened the floodgates to money in us politics overturning nearly A CENTURY old precedent and allowing something unlike anything that had happened in that previous century.... And to downplay it as just going back to status quo is absurd .

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#136

Post by CAP_NET_ADMIN » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 4:40 PM UTC

the_clarence wrote: post #80

MangoCoffee wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is going to replace US? China? Its economy is on the decline with deflation, debts, real estates problem...etc. Europe? Japan?

The problem is that China is still self sufficient. Huge country with a single timezone and great infrastructure and now has the expertise to produce for itself and enough people to buy its own products. Sure there's going to be some instability but even then the dictatorship is helping in preventing people to go too crazy. There's a reason musk is pushing for babies: the US is mostly empty land with a few large citi…

Maybe they have one timezone, but there are multiple "China's"

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#137

Post by vlan0 » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 5:07 PM UTC

kennysoona wrote: post #123

Gormo wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm afraid I can't observe any of that. All I can see is superficial appearances -- I can't see behind-the-scenes corruption or measure superior alternatives that were suppressed in favor of locking in a marginally mitigated version of the status quo ante. I can, however, see the some of the unintended consequences of regulatory interventions in other countries. For example, Germany's ban on nuclear power made them d…

> I'm afraid I can't observe any of that. All I can see is superficial appearances This sounds like you are observing much of that, and then dismissing the results as superficial appearances. Dismissing regulation here would be like dismissing a comparison of a correlation between laws against murder and a low murder rate and a correlation between no laws against murder and a high murder rate.

>Dismissing regulation here would be like dismissing a comparison of a correlation between laws against murder and a low murder rate and a correlation between no laws against murder and a high murder rate.

The reality is there is a hint of truth in everything. We must be careful to assign cause where correlation exists.

Let's use Vermont's gun laws for example. Over the last 40 years, the state's approach to firearms has been quite permissive, with relatively few restrictions, but it still maintains a reputation for having one of the lowest gun violence rates in the country. Vermont is one of the few states in the U.S. where people can carry a concealed weapon without a permit. So is it regulation that prevents the gun violence, as many would lead you to believe, or is it a combination of factors. Factors like social stability, cultural attitudes toward guns, and the state's strong focus on community engagement. Those all contribute to the relative lack of gun violence, rather than simply the laws themselves.

But speaking from experience, when we are deep into ego development years (think teens), I would have absolutely killed someone if it wasn't for murder laws. But today, what holds me back is empathy, and not the law.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#138

Post by pseudalopex » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 5:11 PM UTC

ben_w wrote: post #133

pseudalopex wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's illogical to call to "Make America Great Again " while also claiming there's no decline. The logic is undiminished potential hobbled by weak leaders, sinister cabals, and their enablers.

What, the cabinet? :P But seriously, even last time, with 2016's MAGA slogans including "drain the swamp", there's a gap between "great but we could be better if not for them " and the implicit absent greatness of the initials forming MAGA.

Not great but we could be better. Great naturally but restrained artificially.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#139

Post by vlan0 » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 5:20 PM UTC

asacrowflies wrote: post #135

Gormo wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, 1995 was seven years before Congress passed the statute that the FEC was misinterpreting in the Citizens United case. The Citizens United ruling had essentially noting to do with "money in politics" and was just a bog standard first amendment ruling against a federal agency attempting to read the power to regulate political speech into a statute that had been passed a mere eight years earlier. Contrary to the m…

This is just lying by ommision or gaslighting.... Yes citizens United opened the floodgates to money in us politics overturning nearly A CENTURY old precedent and allowing something unlike anything that had happened in that previous century.... And to downplay it as just going back to status quo is absurd .

This is a good point. No matter the intent, we must also focus on the real world outcomes of said policy.

The Citizens United ruling didn’t just clarify the FEC’s authority, it fundamentally reshaped the landscape of American politics by allowing unlimited corporate and union spending on elections, which critics argue disproportionately amplifies the influence of wealth. While the Court didn’t explicitly equate money with speech, its decision enabled the flow of money into the political system in a way that is effectively treated as free speech under the First Amendment. Far from "restoring the status quo," Citizens United created a system where the wealthy can now spend unlimited amounts of money to sway elections, a shift that has drastically altered democratic representation.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#140

Post by JohnBooty » Wed, Feb 05, 2025, 5:25 PM UTC

throw0101b wrote: post #83

MangoCoffee wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is going to replace US? China? Its economy is on the decline with deflation, debts, real estates problem...etc. Europe? Japan?

> Who is going to replace US? No one. And everyone. That's the point. There will be no on 'policing' things (even imperfectly), and so anyone who wants to do a power grab will make an attempt. "Those in positions of power do what their power permits, while the weak have no choice but to accept it." — Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War , 5.89

    There will be no one 'policing' things (even imperfectly)

Pirates (like actual sea pirates, not kids downloading warez) definitely look forward to this.

Although, that's a specific part of the "world policing" role that I can see China stepping into.

They certainly have the manpower and the shipbuilding capacity, and they certainly have the incentive to protect international shipping so they can sell their goods everywhere.

I don't think China (yet) wants any part of the other bits of world policing, like deploying armies and/or funding proxy wars on the other side of the world.