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Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

cneos.jpl.nasa.gov

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Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#131

Post by nonrandomstring »

timewizard wrote: post #122
ddahlen wrote: post #84

I work on the Near Earth Object Surveyor space telescope (NEO Surveyor) writing simulation code which predicts which objects we will see. This one has drummed up a bit of interest due to its (relatively) high chance of impact. I actually spent quite a bit of time yesterday digging through archive images trying trying to see if it was spotted on some previous times it came by the Earth (no luck unfortunately). Since w…

> JPL Horizons A slight tangent.. but my favorite thing about Horizons is that they still maintain a telnet interface to their system. Once you learn to use it it's quite a bit of fun to play around with it.

That warms my heart on a winter night.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#132

Post by freen »

timewizard wrote: post #124
rob74 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good luck with that... currently we are failing to muster a global effort for tackling climate change, which is a much more pressing issue than an asteroid which may or may not hit us. I know https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t_Look_Up is satirical, but reality often outdoes satire, so I wouldn't be surprised if things would play out exactly like in that movie...

There is open doubt as to whether climate change, as presented, is truly a near-term existential issue. There is no doubt that an asteroid hitting earth is.

There is an open doubt whether a fully functional coffee machine is currently orbiting Venus, however one of these hypotheses is different than the other.

Hint: expertise matters, evidence matters, and in a field where buildings/laws/fields of study get named after successful contrarians, a long streak of effectively unanimous consensus should not be undervalued.

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#133

Post by perihelions »

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #118
perihelions wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, I understand now. For one thing, you could weaponize asteroids as a second-strike response, if there's an imbalance where one superpower has asteroid deflection and one does not. Even if it's delayed by months, the certainty that the asteroid will eventually hit establishes a deterrent against attacking the asteroid-controlling country. If there's defenses against ballistic missiles, this circumvents those. For a…

Eh, we already have steath aircraft that could slip in past air defenses and drop a nuke with next to no warning. We probably have a stealthy hypersonic that can also do so. That doesn't negate a nations second strike ability. Part of the reason the US, Russia and China have vast land based missile fields is to visibly show the enemy that they're gonna have to wipe out huge swaths of land with hundreds of nukes (and…

Right; but if the enemy thinks that's likely to happen, it'd only take them 15 minutes to nuke that one airbase that stores all the B-2's. Strategic bomber aircraft aren't very useful weapons for superpowers fighting each other (or else we'd have a lot more B-2's).

Space-based weapons (which are banned by treaty) are more like submarine-basing, in that the enemy isn't necessarily sure where they are; but, in addition to that, they have potentially very short warning times before a strike. No one actually wants that unstable dynamic, with the short/no-warning; which is why all the nuclear powers have (so far) agreed by treaty not to build any.

edit: But if someone were to build a civilian spaced-based asteroid defense, which involved sending nuclear weapons into space... that could get destabilizing fast. Whether or not Sagan can predict specifics, the big-picture idea of humans not trusting each other with apocalyptic weapons is not wrong. (Worth recalling the USSR genuinely mistook the civilian US Space Shuttle for a nuclear weapons platform).

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#135

Post by pxmpxm »

jdmoreira wrote: post #8
lambdadelirium wrote: post #4

What can be done to increase the asteroid impact probability?

We can land on it, drill and plant nukes inside to shatter it

Can't tell why I'm hearing "I could stay awake just to hear you breathin" in my head when reading the above

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#136

Post by pxmpxm »

ceejayoz wrote: post #35
teepo wrote: post #14

I used genAI to help me understand the Palermo scale number seeming low. The 2032 asteroid does warrant tracking, but the Palermo Scale remains below a critical level because: The impact probability (1.2%) is not high enough to trigger a stronger alarm. The background frequency of 8 Mt impacts is relatively high, making this event less statistically exceptional. The event is still 8 years away, so uncertainties in or…

I asked a parrot about quantum physics and it told me I’m a pretty bird.

Could be LLM generated spam post to promote LLM generated spam?

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#137

Post by VierScar »

renjimen wrote: post #123
slackerIII wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great post, thank you! Where does the uncertainty (1%) come from? For example, is it more from our ability to precisely determine the orbit based on limited observations, or is it because orbits for objects like this just aren't predictable years out, or something else?

Parent mentioned Monte Carlo simulations, which allow you to simulate across a range possible scenario parameters and see what % result in some outcome (like a collision with Earth or the moon).

I'm sure there's a reason, but it seems like an unusual use of Monte Carlo - it's all deterministic and there is no opposing player making choices. Must have something to do with uncertainties in projected orbits or imperfect simulations maybe?

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#138

Post by adzm »

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #121
pfdietz wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stripe where this object could hit is mostly at low latitude.

Sorry could you expand / clarify this comment? What would make this more likely to hit near the tropics?

The risk corridor calculated here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2024_YR4_risk_corridor.pn...

Re: Asteroid Impact on Earth 2032 with Probability 1% and 8Mt Energy

#139

Post by [deleted] »

virtualritz wrote: post #65
deadbabe wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why crisis? People should simply not look up.

> Why crisis? People should simply not look up. I don't understand why this apt pun on that movie is being downvoted. Would anyone of the downvoters of parent care to explain?

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