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Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

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Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#131

Post by tightbookkeeper »

toast0 wrote: post #117
tightbookkeeper wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But Chinese citizens know the US exists? This feels like projection. The US wants to act as if stock markets and political yard signs are the only usable system.

Who doesn't have stock markets? Ok, there's a list [1], and Cuba and North Korea are there, but China has several exchanges. Who doesn't have political yard signs? I'd be surprised if China doesn't have them; they just might not be so varied. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_without_a_...

Yes, the western liberal project led by the US is a worldwide phenomenon, especially after the Cold War, world bank. Etc,

But what we’ve seen over the past decades is other countries reexamine what parts are actually good for them.

For example Japan has a stock market, and it was a lot like the US in the 80s. But now it looks and operates with nationalist priorities which are very different,

> Who doesn't have political yard signs?

Anybody really excited about democracy in the US also has to reconcile with marketing. People will literally vote because of a tv commercial.

This is not a normal system you will find anywhere else. And it’s pretty obvious to outsiders that US media plays a weird state function in it as well.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#132

Post by high_na_euv »

aurareturn wrote: post #107
bruce511 wrote: post #30

Nvidia is obviously a US company, but the chips themselves are manufactured in Taiwan. And of course China sees Taiwan as a rogue province, at at least treats invasion there as "on the table". While the US may decide to actively support Taiwan, at the very least a war over that will disrupt production. Should Taiwan fall, and China choose to ban exports from there to the US, then the fun and games would really start.…

> As long as back-channels exist to supply the chips to China, then there's less incentive for China to control Taiwan. The ban exists as good politics (we don't ship to our adversaries) while the back-channels ensure they aren't forced into a position no-one wants them to be in. Funny I was just literally thinking about this a few minutes before I opened this thread. I think the TSMC restrictions on China is really…

>Second, it creates a scenario in which China would take military action on Taiwan if they fall behind too far in AI due to the lack of the most advanced chips.

What? Who goes to war for some chips that can be smuggled easily xd

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#133

Post by creshal »

sct202 wrote: post #55
cycomanic wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As the article states, Singapore accounted for 20% (!) of Nvidias total revenue. You think management wasn't aware that something was going on? A country with about 2% of the GDP of the US and non of the large AI companies? Management either was involved or willfully looked the other way the alternative is that they are so grossly incompetent and non-involved in the company that it's hard to believe.

Singapore is a normal billing location for semiconductor products. It's roughly 20% for Intel as well https://www.intc.com/filings-reports/all-sec-filings/xbrl_do...

It's also roughly 20% for another company selling sanctioned products? Hmmmmmmm. Yes. Very normal, nothing to see here.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#134

Post by aurareturn »

high_na_euv wrote: post #132
aurareturn wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As long as back-channels exist to supply the chips to China, then there's less incentive for China to control Taiwan. The ban exists as good politics (we don't ship to our adversaries) while the back-channels ensure they aren't forced into a position no-one wants them to be in. Funny I was just literally thinking about this a few minutes before I opened this thread. I think the TSMC restrictions on China is really…

>Second, it creates a scenario in which China would take military action on Taiwan if they fall behind too far in AI due to the lack of the most advanced chips. What? Who goes to war for some chips that can be smuggled easily xd

It's not just about smuggling. First, smuggling adds costs and risks, which makes Chinese AI companies less competitive. Second, China wants to design and manufacture chips on TSMC. They don't want to just buy Nvidia chips, they want to compete against Nvidia.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#135

Post by aurareturn »

frankacter wrote: post #124
aurareturn wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As long as back-channels exist to supply the chips to China, then there's less incentive for China to control Taiwan. The ban exists as good politics (we don't ship to our adversaries) while the back-channels ensure they aren't forced into a position no-one wants them to be in. Funny I was just literally thinking about this a few minutes before I opened this thread. I think the TSMC restrictions on China is really…

>I think the TSMC restrictions on China is really bad for Taiwan in the next few years. First, it’s a huge revenue loss for Taiwan. TSMC sells more than it is capable of producing. This will likely continue to be a limiter for the foreseeable future. No revenue is being lost as a result of limiting export to China. >Second, it creates a scenario in which China would take military action on Taiwan if they fall behind…

  TSMC sells more than it is capable of producing. This will likely continue to be a limiter for the foreseeable future. No revenue is being lost as a result of limiting export to China.
First, TSMC's capacity isn't full right now. Second, if China relies on TSMC, they'd expand by building more fabs. Third, with more competition from China, they can increase the price of their nodes for all their customers. Fourth, China pushing harder to compete directly against TSMC because of this ban.

  China's interest in Taiwan existed long before TSMC, it is ideological, not economical.
Agreed. I think China is willing to destroy the entire island to bring it back into control, which is not what's best for Taiwan people.

  I am a Taiwan citizen and the majority of us don't want this, evident by the results of our recent election. That said, see prior point.
I guess there is a difference between what you want as a Taiwan resident and what I personally think is best for the island. I think Taiwan is being put as a sacrificial lamb almost by the US and I think it's in Taiwan's best interest to play to both sides more.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#136

Post by BLKNSLVR »

EasyMark wrote: post #98
burningChrome wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Neither party wants to look “bad for the economy You mean like the horrific jobs numbers that came out that nobody is covering either? Like bad like that??

I saw it in several business sections. Is that the the "nobody covering it" part? The numbers a likely due to several one-off occurrences that aren't like to hit semi-perfect status again for a while. No reason given the numbers that it's not a fluke with the history of the previous months.

It's ok, inflation is only going to be transitory.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#137

Post by PeterStuer »

"Nvidia claims it cannot control the final delivery location of its GPUs"

Unless Nvidia would be restricted from selling to anyone that is not under the same restrictions than they are, I'd say that is not just a claim but a thruth.

Btw. Don't these trade restrictions not just strengthen BRICS and accelerate their internal market development?

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#138

Post by high_na_euv »

aurareturn wrote: post #134
high_na_euv wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Second, it creates a scenario in which China would take military action on Taiwan if they fall behind too far in AI due to the lack of the most advanced chips. What? Who goes to war for some chips that can be smuggled easily xd

It's not just about smuggling. First, smuggling adds costs and risks, which makes Chinese AI companies less competitive. Second, China wants to design and manufacture chips on TSMC. They don't want to just buy Nvidia chips, they want to compete against Nvidia.

>China wants to design and manufacture chips on TSMC.

They want to design and manufacture themselves.

>First, smuggling adds costs and risks

Going to war does the same multiplied by 100? 1000?

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#139

Post by powerapple »

ruggeri wrote: post #78
mullingitover wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China doesn't want the model of a free, democratic society of chinese people to exist, because it proves that the CCP's authoritarianism isn't the only "good" model. So was everything with Taiwan hunky dory when they were a murderous military dictatorship for all those decades[1]? I thought the under-mentioned beef China had with Taiwan was the fact that the ROC took (and retains to this day) all the priceless cult…

> So was everything with Taiwan hunky dory when they were a murderous military dictatorship for all those decades[1]? It's good to remember that Taiwan's adoption of multiparty democracy is very recent, and that a one-party dictatorship preceded it. And of course the PRC has always had lots of reasons to want to take back Taiwan, regardless whether it fears that mainland Chinese might see the Taiwanese system as pref…

Hong Kong was set as an example how Taiwan can be integrated as a separate economy, separate government and separate everything as long as it is part of China. The reason why it happened in Hong Kong was that the political movement was out of control, you have some members of the parliament saying "fuck China" when they swear to service during the ceremony. It is more about how Hong Kong sees China, not how China sees Hong Kong. China would be very happy to see Hong Kong works in the two system model. How China is thinking now is that, giving Hong Kong the freedom to operate does not work, the same apply to Taiwan. Most Chinese people have negative views on politicians, the multiparty democracy system in Taiwan is not seen as a positive thing to be honest.

Re: Nvidia and its partners built a system to bypass U.S. export restrictions

#140

Post by aurareturn »

high_na_euv wrote: post #138
aurareturn wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just about smuggling. First, smuggling adds costs and risks, which makes Chinese AI companies less competitive. Second, China wants to design and manufacture chips on TSMC. They don't want to just buy Nvidia chips, they want to compete against Nvidia.

>China wants to design and manufacture chips on TSMC. They want to design and manufacture themselves. >First, smuggling adds costs and risks Going to war does the same multiplied by 100? 1000?

>They want to design and manufacture themselves.

Sure, but they want to rely on TSMC now so they don't fall behind in high tech in 2024/2025. Getting their own EUV tech is still many years away.

>Going to war does the same multiplied by 100? 1000?

Well, you know what they say, if I can't have it, you can't either.

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