China's manufacturers are going broke • Hacker News Board

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#131

Post by fspeech » Sat, Aug 17, 2024, 10:20 PM UTC

derefr wrote: post #15

lenerdenator wrote: post #5

Well, if they want to learn from the US, they should ship their manufacturing capacity and intellectual property off to their geopolitical rival for short-term monetary gain.

China was actually trying to heavily establish offshoring in the Philippines—but that has seemingly dried up with the increasing South China Sea tensions.

I've never sensed any real desire for China to offshore to the Philippines, given its military alliance with the US. Maybe they dangle the prospect from time to time to try to pry the Philippines away. They have much friendlier targets in Southeast Asia, with Thailand and Malaysia at the top of the list.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#132

Post by reisse » Sat, Aug 17, 2024, 10:31 PM UTC

alephnerd wrote: post #96

reisse wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> where can the competition export? You see, there is a 1.5m-2m new car market right next to China, completely abandoned by western players. And another 500k-1m market in Central Asia, where General Motors neocolonialist monopoly is waiting for disruption. Of course it's not US or EU-sized market, but realistically, in the best case scenario I'd expect China to have at most 20% of US or EU. Here, they can take it all…

> You see, there is a 1.5m-2m new car market right next to China, completely abandoned by western players Which one? If you mean Russia (which by the way is only 600-700k), then those Chinese players face secondary sanctions in most markets which settle trade in USD, along with a lot of politically connected domestic players. If you mean India, most Chinese players have been chased out or forced to transfer technolog…

> If you mean Russia

Yes.

> (which by the way is only 600-700k)

700k was the official figure for 2022, which, besides the obvious reasons to be an outlier, is also skewed by the fact 300k more cars were imported as "used" to workaround stopping of the official deliveries. It was more than 1m new cars sold in 2023, now it's 700k just for the Jan-Jun 2024.

> then those Chinese players face secondary sanctions in most markets which settle trade in USD

Yet the reality shows they don't really care much. Why should they, though? The big ones have the leverage of controlling the access to the Chinese domestic market, which is too important for the Western manufacturers. And the small ones are already effectively excluded (by the tariffs and such) from the markets that can implement secondary sanctions.

> Which is dominated by a mix of American (GM) and South Korean (Hyundai) JVs with UzAutos

There is no economic reason why GM dominates that market. GM produces too little cars, of a questionable design age and quality. The day someone is able to talk local government into a deal with favorable tariff conditions (not circa 100% import tax that exists now), GM business in Central Asia is dead.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#133

Post by Terr_ » Sat, Aug 17, 2024, 10:43 PM UTC

ein0p wrote: post #128

luuurker wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've pointed out what the US is doing. That's good, but you're clearly biased, so let me tell you two things that China is doing that is contributing for that instability you've mentioned: claims in the south china sea that no country would accept if it was done to them and a major naval build up. You need two to tango and both the US and China are dancing right now. Anyone only blaming one side need to stop for a…

Take a look at a map of US bases around China and then try to find any Chinese bases near the US, and you’ll understand who’s “militarist” and who isn’t.

That's evidence of having more allies than China, not evidence of being more militaristic than China.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#134

Post by seatac76 » Sat, Aug 17, 2024, 10:44 PM UTC

A lot of these were unsustainable to begin with, the number inflates the viability. The key players are expanding, and increasingly building out manufacturing in cheaper countries like Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand so they will become much more dominant.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#135

Post by fspeech » Sat, Aug 17, 2024, 10:54 PM UTC

almatabata wrote: post #57

rkwz wrote: post #38

Genuine question, if they have so much excess capacity and low domestic demand, wouldn't it be easier to just export to other countries? Or are there barriers put in place in the world stage that limits this?

Let us assume they start dumping all their excess internationally. Do you think other countries will just allow china to flood the international market and drive other countries respective auto makers out of business? Other countries will raise tariffs accordingly until they reach an equilibrium that they feel comfortable with.

Not everyone makes cars. Shrinking the global market shares of the ones that do will make the competitors' economy of scale worse as they withdraw from the ROW to hide behind the trade barriers.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#136

Post by wildrhythms » Sat, Aug 17, 2024, 11:32 PM UTC

limit499karma wrote: post #122

lenerdenator wrote: post #5

Well, if they want to learn from the US, they should ship their manufacturing capacity and intellectual property off to their geopolitical rival for short-term monetary gain.

It wasn't just US. The hidden politburo of capitalists decided and the nations followed orders.

Nothing hidden about it.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#137

Post by maxglute » Sat, Aug 17, 2024, 11:54 PM UTC

aquamar2 wrote: post #127

maxglute wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Work what? I think Ctrl+F China + collapse arguments still doesn't work. 1) Consumption is "sluggish", i.e. it's small positive growth instead of large precovid positive growth. It's not negative decline let alone collapse. Get off the FLG. Employment rate steady, including new grads at 20% accounting for those in school and not looking for work (i.e. the Chinese tertiary way), 40%-50% for graduate cohorts who takes…

[flagged]

Ctrl+F is... copy paste? Complains about me using PRC instead of China in post where CHina is the... 7th word. I can't even accuse you of being LLM because even bad LLMs don't make such basic mistakes. Here's a reciprocal sorry - let's not waste each other's time.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#138

Post by maxglute » Sun, Aug 18, 2024, 12:02 AM UTC

maxglute wrote: post #113

alephnerd wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> apology for edits, out and about No worries. We all have lives. > Some local jurisdictions It's not some - it's a lot. And a number of these are not wealthy prefectures - Guangxi, Jiangxi, Jillin, Anhui, and Hebei underperform compared to the Chinese average on social indicators and economic health. The amount of money spent to subsidize EV cars made by GAG, FAW, Dongfeng, Changan, Chery, JAC, etc that most Chinese…

Excuse typos and lack of structure. Just long mobile typing. >It's not some - it's a lot. It's a lot now, because the race just winding down. It will be some later, if local gov can dig hard enough to eat shit on land finance, they can learn to eat shit on losing out on race for XYZ strategic sectors. Are we going to pretend this initial overcapacity -> cull -> consolidation cycle hasn't happened before? It's textboo…

Double apologies readers for density of garbo grammar+typos. Typing on train hard.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#139

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Aug 18, 2024, 12:08 AM UTC

reisse wrote: post #132

alephnerd wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You see, there is a 1.5m-2m new car market right next to China, completely abandoned by western players Which one? If you mean Russia (which by the way is only 600-700k), then those Chinese players face secondary sanctions in most markets which settle trade in USD, along with a lot of politically connected domestic players. If you mean India, most Chinese players have been chased out or forced to transfer technolog…

> If you mean Russia Yes. > (which by the way is only 600-700k) 700k was the official figure for 2022, which, besides the obvious reasons to be an outlier, is also skewed by the fact 300k more cars were imported as "used" to workaround stopping of the official deliveries. It was more than 1m new cars sold in 2023, now it's 700k just for the Jan-Jun 2024. > then those Chinese players face secondary sanctions in most m…

[deleted]

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#140

Post by alephnerd » Sun, Aug 18, 2024, 12:29 AM UTC

xrd wrote: post #116

Does anyone know if this means hot deals on extra EV inventory? I tried to buy an electric golf cart which looked like a Hummer on Alibaba, but importing it (getting it past customs) was challenging. They had me at MP3 player! If I could buy an EV for $3k, it would be worth the hassle with charging infrastructure and hiding an illegal vehicle from the coppers.

> If I could buy an EV for $3k

The cheapest EV in CN rn is around $9k.

Assuming you could even get a Wuling Mini road-cleared, you will need to pay out of your eyes in tarriffs and import taxes, making a used Tesla Model 3 roughly comparable price wise.