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Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

flightradar24.com

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Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#131

Post by kelnos »

rootusrootus wrote: post #58
stouset wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When was the last time a commercial airliner crashed due to turbulence?

Best I can tell, 1966. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BOAC_Flight_911

Oh man:

> Several booked passengers cancelled their tickets at the last moment to see a ninja demonstration. These passengers, Albert R. Broccoli, Harry Saltzman, Ken Adam, Lewis Gilbert, and Freddie Young, were in Japan scouting locations for the fifth James Bond film, You Only Live Twice (1967).

The James Bond franchise would likely have been quite a bit different had Broccoli died in 1966. Crazy to think he and his colleagues cheated death because they wanted to play tourist a little bit longer than originally scheduled.

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#132

Post by buildsjets »

rob74 wrote: post #6
the_sleaze_ wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might be thinking of the Gulf Stream, which is an oceanic current and definitively weakening, rather than the jet stream, which is an air current.

To muddle things even further, there is a (jet) aircraft manufacturer called Gulfstream ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulfstream_Aerospace ). ...but I fully agree with the rest of your comment.

Not all Gulfstream aircraft are jets. Mine certainly isn’t. Piston powered, burns avgas, spins a propeller, goes around 130 knots.

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#133

Post by aaron695 »

jameshart wrote: post #127
gerdesj wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Most of the recent widely publicized CAT injuries have been on long distance flights between Europe and South Asia." OK but you'll need a citation for your assertion and that is only about reported CAT via media sources and not what the article is on about - CAT events worldwide. The article invokes evidence across the entire planet and cites Prosser et al with 1979 vs 2020 graphics, evidence and discussion. It also…

The article exists because of several recent high profile CAT incidents. It cites data from several years ago (before the recent spate of stories) that only talks about increases in CAT-conducive conditions, but says nothing about increases in actual incidents. The article leaves maybe the impression that any recent spike in high profile turbulence events might be a result of the changes in jet stream activity but do…

[dead]

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#134

Post by panarky »

NathanKP wrote: post #102
User23 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In that case what’s the explanation for clear air turbulence events having an exactly proportionally lower rate of causing damage and injury such that the rate has remained flat despite the increase in events? What’s making turbulence safer? Edit: this isn’t a rhetorical question. I’m very interested in any proposed actual mechanism. As someone who is very alarmed by turbulence I’d love a reason to believe it’s getti…

As I understand it modern US airlines (Delta in specific) employ a meteorology team tasked to predict turbulence and they also run complex turbulence tracking systems that allow one plane that detects turbulence to communicate to a centralized system that allows other planes to change altitude or heading to avoid turbulent areas when possible. Therefore both can be true at the same time: turbulence events are increas…

This is true.

Flight plans are now algorithmically generated to shave fuel usage.

Because weather forecasts are more accurate, the algorithms write flight plans that take the aircraft closer to storms. This saves fuel while slightly increasing the risk of severe turbulence.

Couple that with the lightweight materials used in modern aircraft, and passengers are likely to experience more frequent moderate to severe turbulence.

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#135

Post by dmix »

kelnos wrote: post #129
jameshart wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article exists because of several recent high profile CAT incidents. It cites data from several years ago (before the recent spate of stories) that only talks about increases in CAT-conducive conditions, but says nothing about increases in actual incidents. The article leaves maybe the impression that any recent spike in high profile turbulence events might be a result of the changes in jet stream activity but do…

> The article exists because of several recent high profile CAT incidents. Yes, but the article doesn't claim your narrowing of the scope, that it's mostly just between Europe and Asia.

Where did he claim this?

> Most of the recent widely publicized CAT injuries have been on long distance flights between Europe and South Asia.

> Planes taking more circuitous routes ... could be a contributing factor to increasing incidents of dangerous turbulence affecting flights

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#136

Post by oron »

Shameless plug here. I work at SkyPath (https://skypath.io) we monitor and collect CAT data from 1000's of flights in real time and predict CAT events with the help of an AI model. Pilots are extremely happy with our solution, we signed several of the major airlines in US and have active evaluation programs with several others.

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#137

Post by erixM »

diogenescynic wrote: post #118

I can't tell if it's just me or something with flights but recently when I take flights I get an intense headache that isn't similar to other headaches.

For a few months, I used to have headaches too in the last 10 minutes before landing of every flight. Since I had a surgery for my sinusitis a few months before, I thought it was because of some air pressure buildup in my maxillary sinuses that wasn't returning to normal air pressure fast enough. Now every time I am close to landing I make sure the air circulates through both nasal cavities very well and I haven't had any problems anymore.

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#138

Post by HeatrayEnjoyer »

oron wrote: post #136

Shameless plug here. I work at SkyPath ( https://skypath.io ) we monitor and collect CAT data from 1000's of flights in real time and predict CAT events with the help of an AI model. Pilots are extremely happy with our solution, we signed several of the major airlines in US and have active evaluation programs with several others.

Signed?

What does authenticating have to do with it? Is there doubt about data providence?

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#139

Post by oron »

HeatrayEnjoyer wrote: post #138
oron wrote: post #136

Shameless plug here. I work at SkyPath ( https://skypath.io ) we monitor and collect CAT data from 1000's of flights in real time and predict CAT events with the help of an AI model. Pilots are extremely happy with our solution, we signed several of the major airlines in US and have active evaluation programs with several others.

Signed? What does authenticating have to do with it? Is there doubt about data providence?

Signed as in purchased a subscription for our service to provide data from their aircraft (using iPad sensors pilots are using) and get real time alerts and predictions regarding their flight and route.

Re: Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?

#140

Post by 1propionyl »

This seems like one of those topics that seems to be eliciting some response we might consider normal if it was code switched into Bay Area or NYC speak but seems to be getting a lot of pushback because it sounds like it's coming from particular airline boosters.

This isn't to say either of those things really happen just it sometimes sure seems like it.

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