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Will we ever get fusion power?

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131–140 of 309 posts

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#131
post #129
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to several studies you need up to 2 weeks of storage, not just 24hrs, because checking on the long term, every decade or 2 you get 2 weeks of clouds or 2 weeks of no wind, etc....

> 2 weeks of clouds or 2 weeks of no wind AND not OR. To actually need 2 weeks of storage you would need both 0 output in solar for 2 weeks and 0 wind for two weeks and 0 output from hydro. That doesn’t happen. You still get solar power on cloudy days, it just takes more panels to generate some specific level of power. The goal is to minimize X$ for generation + Y$ for storage while guaranteeing sufficient supply. An…

So I'm living up north here where from Nov 15 to Jan 26 we get less than 9 hours of daylight per day and the sun is at a low angle above the horizon. We won't be generating anywhere near nameplate capacity even if the sky is clear due to the ubiquity. Add clouds and the short day... and it's really rough for a few months. Sometimes it's windy when it's dark and cold, and sometimes it just stays cloudy and calm for a while. To make it through the winter here you're going to need to either build out massive amounts of storage or dramatically over-provision the wind and solar and deal with curtailing it in the summer.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#132
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, I think it is a great article. Personally, I'm most inclined to agree with the "bear case" summarized at the bottom of the article: 1. I think it's highly likely that, at some point (and probably in the not-too distant future with ITER and DEMO), humans will produce fusion reactors that are self-sustaining with net positive output (ignition). 2. Given the inherent complexity and difficulty with fusion, I thin…

Personally, I don't see fusion as relevant on a time scale that will impact the climate crisis in any significant way, but it could be a major asset in taking us from net zero emissions to preindustrial carbon levels. It could also simply just be a way to achieve cheap and abundant energy in general, irrespective of climate issues. But as you said, of course it's an open question whether fusion will actually be more…

Would there be any obligation to pay out financial penalties if the company declares bankruptcy?

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only reason the answer is always 20 years from now is because governments have withdrawn funding to such an absurd degree that projects have to take long, well measured risks otherwise they lose their funding versus rapid iteration of projects with high risks of failure (and high costs). This is ultimately a capital game and without enough capital researchers and engineers have to go with the safest bets lest the…

Or it’s always in the future because people are trying to do with an accelerator what normally takes the mass of a star to do. Whether or not it’s even possible is up for debate.

It's really not. Inertial Confinement Fusion tests have already produced energy positive results quite a few times. The most recent ICF tests that made the rounds were notable because they were consistently repeatable.

i.e. we know a well defined lower bound on the conditions required for energy positive fusion.

These bounds are more or less what we expected so sustainable energy positive fusion is essentially guaranteed to be feasible, it's just ungodly expensive until we can learn how to reduce the lower bounds for fusion or improve our ability to achieve those conditions.

So ITER will work. There really isn't a discussion on whether ITER will work or not. Like technically there's a small fraction of a percent chance it won't work for a number or reasons but even then it's less likely to be "it will never work" and more "we need to make changes and it'll work eventually".

This is actually part of the reason for the updated baseline schedule. It's apparently going to be far more aggressive now that there are better assurances that the existing model is in line with experimental evidence.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#134
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Base load" doesn't really enter into it: you just need storage to make renewables make sense by supplying when generation doesn't meet demand and recharging when demand is less than supply. (or, if you have a cheap "base load" you use storage to even out the peaks and troughs in the same way). Base load is just a somewhat arbitrary line drawn across the lowest point of demand, it's not an actual requirement of the g…

There will be times when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. Storage can come to the rescue if this is a few hours, but over much longer time periods will be a problem. It's rare, but not unheard of. Gas will be part of the solution for many years to come.

Transmission loses are 3% per 1000km so moving electricity from morroco to the UK would result in ~6% loss in electricity.

Saying

> There will be times when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine

Is just FUD. The wind is blowing and the sun is shining in many places within 2000km no matter where you live

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, isn't fusion also possibly applicable as a weapon? I mean, thermonuclear weapons exist today with fission bomb being the fuze, once we achieve fusion ignition can't we build thermonuclear bomb from it that would not need uranium/plutionium?

If we could build such a device we would effectively have unlimited energy. At that point, why fight each other when we can colonize the galaxy?

“We” don’t have and don’t want to seriously fight each other. But it’s not “us” at the wheel. They have their own idea what we should do and until we get rid of them completely, your question will stay naive. This feature of our species was important for building civilization, but it will drag future generations down to the monkey bottom forever.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#137
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2 weeks of clouds or 2 weeks of no wind AND not OR. To actually need 2 weeks of storage you would need both 0 output in solar for 2 weeks and 0 wind for two weeks and 0 output from hydro. That doesn’t happen. You still get solar power on cloudy days, it just takes more panels to generate some specific level of power. The goal is to minimize X$ for generation + Y$ for storage while guaranteeing sufficient supply. An…

So I'm living up north here where from Nov 15 to Jan 26 we get less than 9 hours of daylight per day and the sun is at a low angle above the horizon. We won't be generating anywhere near nameplate capacity even if the sky is clear due to the ubiquity. Add clouds and the short day... and it's really rough for a few months. Sometimes it's windy when it's dark and cold, and sometimes it just stays cloudy and calm for a…

Corollary: energy is going to much more expensive the further you get away from the equator (in the absence of very predictable winds/lots of hydro/cheap geothermal).

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#138
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I'm living up north here where from Nov 15 to Jan 26 we get less than 9 hours of daylight per day and the sun is at a low angle above the horizon. We won't be generating anywhere near nameplate capacity even if the sky is clear due to the ubiquity. Add clouds and the short day... and it's really rough for a few months. Sometimes it's windy when it's dark and cold, and sometimes it just stays cloudy and calm for a…

Corollary: energy is going to much more expensive the further you get away from the equator (in the absence of very predictable winds/lots of hydro/cheap geothermal).

Yup… we’re probably building nuke plants. We are also building wind and solar. And some new natural gas plants. We don’t really have a whole lot left to tap for hydro, don’t really have good geography for pumped hydro storage, and while there is a pilot project on the go to try to generate electricity from mediocre geothermal we definitely don’t have good geothermal potential either. But… we sure grow a lot of food! And are starting to look at shuttering the coal plants.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#139
post #126
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> over much longer time periods It’s not clear there would be much longer time periods. Build enough low carbon generation to guarantee a surplus every day and you have a surplus every day. Anyone claiming we need days worth of storage is inherently making an argument that days worth of storage is cheaper than simply building more generation and generation is really cheap while batteries aren’t.

According to several studies you need up to 2 weeks of storage, not just 24hrs, because checking on the long term, every decade or 2 you get 2 weeks of clouds or 2 weeks of no wind, etc....

There are counter arguments to this. Clouds and wind are local weather patterns. We can use cables to move power around between areas with and without clouds. Moving power over large distances has gotten more feasible with high voltage direct current (HVDC) cables. There are a few projects in the works to move power from e.g. Australia to Singapore and Morocco to the UK. And there are already cables moving power between e.g. Canada and California, Norway and various countries in Europe, etc. More cables means more resilience in the grid. Continent wide absence of wind and solar generation is not a thing that happens a lot. Certainly not for weeks.

Another point here is that demand shaping is an effective way to deal with fluctuating supply of power. By creating financial incentives, you can get energy consumers to scale up or down their consumption of power. Night tariffs are still common in places with a lot of static generation, for example. With solar generation now being so common, we even get occasional negative energy rates in some places where the static generation can't be scaled down.

Batteries and cables are a key enabler for demand shaping. Also, the time windows that energy gets sold for are getting shorter. It used to be that you'd buy x amounts of mwh for some price for hours. It's now getting down to minutes. That means grids can respond more rapidly to fluctuations in supply and demand. And of course it creates incentives for companies to invest in being able to scale up or down their energy consumption from the grid and benefit from these price fluctuations. For example by having batteries and using their roofs for solar generation.

Base load is of course a very flimsy concept and the discussions about it tend to be very hand wavy and rarely cite specific numbers in GW needed. Because as soon as you do that, you can talk solutions: cables, storage, more solar (it always generates some power), etc. And cost.

Hysterical assertions that we need to spend double digit percentages of GDP on things like nuclear or fusion kind of fall over when you apply some rationality to that. How much power for how much $? Maybe do something less mad and cheaper instead. Build some cables. Add some off shore wind. Much cheaper, faster, and way less risky.

Of course the reality is that we still have plenty of base load for the foreseeable future. That's why the vast increases in wind and solar generation, which are now the dominant source of power in a growing number of places, isn't really causing any outages or rolling blackouts. Whatever amount of base load we need, apparently it's way less than we currently have because we have been removing lots of it from the grid.

Re: Will we ever get fusion power?

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strong Wind doesn't exist on asteroids and many planets, so I think there will be a long term need. Solar power decreases with the cube root of distance from the sun,so twice the distance is 1/8th the flux

I'm not concerned about commercially viable space colonies in my lifetime. The real reason for fusion was that fission is not a renewable resource. In a few thousand years there will be a fuel problem with fission and we would be forced to switch to fusion if we had a fully nuclear power system.

Interestingly enough, some of the advancements in fusion research and lasers may help with fission waste fuel recycling. [1] Though breeder reactors might end up being more economical.

https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/4912/chapter/20

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