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Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

tomverbeure.github.io

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Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#131
I have FSD v12 and for my drives, in my part of the country, I have to do a mild safety intervention maybe once a week (like, getting closer to another car than I'm comfortable with)

sorry other people are having different experiences, but FSD is a significant quality of life improvement for me. Nothing is nicer than getting in the car after a long day and letting it chauffeur me home. (yes I still pay attention)

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#132
post #127
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ford’s Blue Cruise is hands-off in mapped highways. Waymo is driverless. Musk is really getting away with all the hype for what Tesla cruise control delivers.

One interesting bit is that recently Nvidia's CEO said Tesla is ahead of the other companies in the space. My opinion is also that Tesla isn't but then we have a connundrum. Is Nvidia's CEO just saying this because Waymo doesn't buy GPUs from them? > “Tesla is far ahead in self-driving cars,” Huang said in an exclusive interview with Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-ceo-says-tesla-far-ahe...

> Is Nvidia's CEO just saying this because Waymo doesn't buy GPUs from them?

Yes.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#133
post #99

The thing I've been most amazed at about FSD is that there hasn't been any sort of lawsuit around FSD refunds. There are people who paid thousands to tens-of-thousands of dollars for a promise that their car would eventually have "full self driving". A not-insignificant portion of those people have lost any chance at actually getting FSD, whether by their car being totaled in an accident, or having sold it, or such,…

There have been lawsuits. I'm unable to find the actual documents, but this article [0] reports on it and has some unbelievable quotes in it.

> Lin rejected Tesla's argument that LoSavio should have known earlier. "Although Tesla contends that it should have been obvious to LoSavio that his car needed lidar to self-drive and that his car did not have it, LoSavio plausibly alleges that he reasonably believed Tesla's claims that it could achieve self-driving with the car's existing hardware and that, if he diligently brought his car in for the required updates, the car would soon achieve the promised results," Lin wrote.

EDIT: found the court document; the quote is in the last paragraph on page 5: https://regmedia.co.uk/2024/05/16/teslaamendedcomplaint.pdf

[0] https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2024/05/tesla-must-face-...

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#134
post #54

And please keep in mind that this is pretty much in the optimal settings for FSD: great weather, huge streets, everything is as "car friendly" as it gets. I'd like to see FSD navigating an old Italian city, there's just no way. Even in car-friendly Germany you very often have streets with side-parking, which are too narrow to fit two cars, you need to communicate with oncoming cars, for instance by waving or flashing…

> old Italian city Try traffic in India [1][2] If it were a game, then India will be the last boss fight in ultra-hard mode. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPiP9PkLAs [2] https://youtu.be/WC2FUEmKEu8?t=412

It already fails in Manhattan. I know that by US standards, the traffic in Manhattan is already considered chaos, but it's usually pretty tame compared to other countries.

There are these videos by this HUGE Tesla fanboy, just look here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vo_hC84OSwg

where at 8:20 it fails to properly deal with a cop car and the fanboy complains that the cop did not obey traffic laws (good luck arguing that when you make him do an emergency stop...).

It's even worse in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vL9pKytV94I

FSD consistently has problems with pedestrians in NY, who of course will just walk also on a red light if you hesitate during turning. US people might consider this "chaos", but it's perfectly normal behavior in many countries, where a red light for pedestrians is more a suggestion than a rule...

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#135
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> old Italian city Try traffic in India [1][2] If it were a game, then India will be the last boss fight in ultra-hard mode. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnPiP9PkLAs [2] https://youtu.be/WC2FUEmKEu8?t=412

Do you mean like this? https://youtu.be/4EJLmIC9cJE?si=gincFsBUzYwQmtIs

I see a good number of bikes in the video but no moving car for the most part, and in the few instances of an oncoming car, IIRC the other car was yielding, the auto-driving car just stayed its path, maybe slowed a bit. No cutting, no weaving, no squeezing, no nothing. Not the kind of “dense traffic” I have in mind. I would call it light-to-no traffic on poor roads.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#136
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it sort of works in limited cases. FSD is like ChatGPT, it works in many cases, it does some mistakes, but it is certainly not “useless”. It won’t replace full time humans yet (the same way that ChatGPT does not replace a developer) but can still work in some scenarios. To the investor, ChatGPT is sold as “AGI is just round the corner”.

But "works in limited cases" is absolutely not enough, given what it promises. It drove into static objects a couple of times, killing people. Recent videos still show behavior like speeding through stop signs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGOo06xzCeU&t=990s Meaning that it's really not reliable enough to take your hands off the wheel. Waymo shows that it is possible, with today's technology, to do much much bette…

> Meaning that it's really not reliable enough to take your hands off the wheel.

Soooo just like ChatGPT then? As the parent comment said.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#137

> For the second test, my wife reluctantly gave me permission to try out FSD for interstate driving, which should be its best case scenario. Except this isn't the new FSD stack, it's the old one. It's a fair criticism of the current offering, but it's not much evidence against a future robotaxi.

Is that the old FSD stack that, starting with 2018, has been "ready for fully autonomous driving where you can take a nap by this time next year", according to the CEO of the company? Why are people still hopeful for Tesla FSD when other companies are so, so far ahead already?

Which ones? Waymo is geolocked. Mercedes' Drive Pilot is a glorified lane assist. Cruise is suspended. Who else?

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#138
post #131

I have FSD v12 and for my drives, in my part of the country, I have to do a mild safety intervention maybe once a week (like, getting closer to another car than I'm comfortable with) sorry other people are having different experiences, but FSD is a significant quality of life improvement for me. Nothing is nicer than getting in the car after a long day and letting it chauffeur me home. (yes I still pay attention)

Nothing beats standing up after my day’s ended and walking to the living room ;)

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#139

> For the second test, my wife reluctantly gave me permission to try out FSD for interstate driving, which should be its best case scenario. Except this isn't the new FSD stack, it's the old one. It's a fair criticism of the current offering, but it's not much evidence against a future robotaxi.

It's still "FSD", though. The consumer doesn't know, or care, what version is running.

The consumer doesn’t care, but an evaluation of the state of the art and potential of self-driving should.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC it's an vision-only ML-based system. So the answer to "why" is probably "we don't know lol"

Image segmentation is almost a solved problem. There is no reason why it should get confused even with a vision only system. Their problem is most likely that they don't have enough compute to process a history of frames and instead process a single image at a time leading to jumps in the segmentation results and those random jumps cause unpredictable braking.

> There is no reason why it should get confused even with a vision only system.

So people keep asserting. And yet here we are.

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