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Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

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Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#131
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If LLMs are beating humans in theory of mind tasks, your theory of mind is incorrect. I’d not heard of Jo Cameron but one outlier, for me, wouldn’t hyper-negate the whole idea out of existence. A huge amount of what I suffer with is not physical pain.

> A huge amount of what I suffer with is not physical pain. It's not just physical suffering that she's supposedly immune to. She's also immune to all psychological suffering as well. And she is married, has kids, and is perfectly healthy. If she's in fact the real deal (I don't know this myself, but I haven't seen anyone debunking her) then dismissing her as an outlier would be a remarkable form of complacency. If t…

Ultimately my thesis was “problems for AGI” not “why AGI is impossible” and for good reason.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine asking these questions about the "metaverse" and cryptocurrencies just 2-3 years ago. Some technologies are great, pioneering even, and full of potential, and still flop in the market.

Poor choice of examples. Bitcoin at $71k is hardly a flop. That was a term coined by stephenson during the early web, 1992. Virtual worlds are still extremely popular.

If you want to argue and pretend there weren't tons and tons of companies and technical products tied to both cryptocurrency and VR/AR lately that absolutely flopped despite being technically unique and innovative by cherry picking things that would have been sound investments back then and ignoring the myriad ways you'd have lost money or the fact that Bitcoin has less usefulness as a technology now than when it was hyped, fine

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#133
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Running into this same problem, the tech is progressing WAY faster than the org can transform to use the tech. I'm betting we end up transforming by aquiring a company that completed the transformation before us, and letting them run the show. The downside is I see a lot more job destruction that route vs the slow route we're currently on.

> Running into this same problem, the tech is progressing WAY faster than the org can transform to use the tech It has always been the case. As a society we are still very far from having harnessed the full power of 90s era computers. Companies routinely pay hundreds of workers and even executives, to do things that computers are better at doing. For instance: managing plannings in big organizations.

This, so much this. I feel that society as a whole is eeking slowly into 80-90's level computing, but it is completely asymmetrical. Some parts of society are hyper-evolved, like social media and entertainment, but others are stuck in earlier phases like your example. In that case even 70's level tech and theory would be an improvement.

CS and educated tech people in general are in a hyper-educated bubble where it is normal to talk about distributed systems and algorithmic complexity, but there are an awful lot of smart people without those backgrounds.

A lot of knowledge that's traditionally branded as "technical" is IMO generally useful, but overlooked. For example basic queuing theory in of itself is exceedingly useful. Nothing fancy, just the steady-state, blocking probablity, what chance of how many "clients", etc.

I witness very large (gov) organisations lacking any kind of in/out flow modeling, statistics, etc. No dashboards, no insights. Just going by feel. Everybody is "overworked", but if you dare to say it might be a good idea to start quantifying some of those parameters you'll be in a very silent, very awkward room and will never be asked anything ever again. I wish I was kidding.

AI? Let's start previous-century level process automatization and professionalization first and we'll see in a few decades if we're anywhere near ready for the next step.

Edit: It's btw interesting that most (high-level) managers at these orgs are all alphas, like history and political science majors. I guess it's no wonder they are trying to solve production problems through "consensus" and endless meandering, but it's also frustrating.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#134
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI has seen rapid efficiency improvements every year for the last decade, but the amount of computation used has gone up, not down. The improvements always go into making larger and more powerful models, not into just running the same models but at a lower cost per hour. https://epochai.org/blog/algorithmic-progress-in-language-mo...

This ^, the models are getting larger and we don't appear to have scratched the surface on Video / Vision models yet. Energy consumption is accelerating along side that at 28% YOY https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/04/how-to-manage-ais-ene... .

While vision-vision models are certainly cool, I don’t think that they are as economically valuable as vision-speech or text-text. Humans don’t have vision output.

Computation may be increasing, but that is a statement about the short-term not the long-term.

If we want to predict the future then we care about: how many capabilities can you fit on a phone-sized computer? And I believe that the answer is: a lot.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#135
post #71
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the Wittgensteinian problem that the AGI wouldn't understand concepts like we do, or is the problem that it wouldn't be able to use them better than a human?

There’s a few different ways one can look at it if trying to take lessons and ideas from Wittgenstein. I didn’t do a brilliant job of the thesis to be honest… but I got a few things on an intuitive level from trying to grok a bunch of Wittgenstein that left me feeling like there was a serious problem in our attempts to build an AI. One of them is that we only have language with which to build an AI - language and sym…

>There really is something to sentience that we all know that cannot be reduced to language or machinery.

>We are complete beings - my intelligence is part of a system, and it makes no sense to abstract it out of that system in order to nail it down.

The more I read rebuttals of these kinds, the more I think AGI believers might be right.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#136
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny that isn’t it. I wonder if Tesla throwing $4billion of Nvidia GPUs into a data centre will be enough to solve it “this time”. Self-driving could easily become one of the pins that bursts Nvidias bubble if we don’t see spectacular improvements.

News today (from Nvidia!) was that Tesla isn't getting them, Elon redirected them to his new AI company. The new AI has the same problem as AI for self driving- you can't trust it.

It's strange alongside, that he's doing it as part of a new company. I realise it's due to his ongoing squabble with Tesla over this $50billion payout he still hasn't had... but can you even imagine the CEO of any other company doing that?

CEO: "Hey, so there's this thing about the product that I've been hyping as the killer widget it'll get, ohh for about ten years now. Well, we still didn't manage to solve the widget problem, so I'm going to start a new widget company that I own so I can sell us the widget."

Shareholders & Board: "You're doing what??!? That's the most illegal thing we've ever heard!"

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#137
post #65
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI will help to totally crush all the CO2 emission targets of Google, MS etc.

By crush do you mean it will become sentient and sequester the carbon in the bodies of their meaty workers by killing them all?

More like this

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40403524

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Question for HNers: Do you think that AI is having a big enough impact already to generate this valuation? Is it changing your life? Imagine asking these questions in the early 90's when "the web" was just getting started. Or when bitcoin was $0.10. These are the sorts of headlines people make fun of later on, “The internet is just a fad.” People learned their lessons and are way more willing to make bets on the fu…

I know what you’re saying but I thought it worthwhile restating the question now that Nvidia is at $3trillion, because I really do care about the answers. I am tech heavy and have been for the past 25 years, and consider myself reasonably well informed… but it seems like AI really isn’t impacting life to the point where I am certain Nvidia is headed for a $10trillion valuation or a $1trillion one in 3 years time.

> it seems like AI really isn’t impacting life to the point where I am certain Nvidia is headed for a $10trillion valuation or a $1trillion one in 3 years time.

How much is the internet worth today?

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poor choice of examples. Bitcoin at $71k is hardly a flop. That was a term coined by stephenson during the early web, 1992. Virtual worlds are still extremely popular.

If you want to argue and pretend there weren't tons and tons of companies and technical products tied to both cryptocurrency and VR/AR lately that absolutely flopped despite being technically unique and innovative by cherry picking things that would have been sound investments back then and ignoring the myriad ways you'd have lost money or the fact that Bitcoin has less usefulness as a technology now than when it was…

Are you really trying to argue that all companies in a space need to succeed, for the space to be successful?

As for bitcoin itself, people and companies have hyped it for their own benefit, but bitcoin itself isn't a company, and therefore isn't hyped. It is one technology that lives on its own and survives primarily because of the will of the people that choose to participate in it.

Re: Nvidia hits $3T market cap on back of AI boom

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t believe I didn’t know until today that Nvidia remains founder lead.

Which big companies in Silicon Valley are still led by their founders?

https://www.wealthfront.com/explore/collections/18/founder-l...

What’s not in the list is Oracle.

But in all reality it still is.

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