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Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

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Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#131

Post by Workaccount2 »

blueflow wrote: post #82
huygens6363 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fear of AGI is not based on Altman’s latest brews. Look at the progress curve of AI in general is one way to get a feeling for it. The other one, which I prefer, is looking at existing AIs for which we thought human ingenuity was top notch and how they are beating us left and right. Strategy, creativity, cunning, all human notions that are being slaughtered. Slowly, but surely. It is “just” a matter of combining. I t…

I'm patiently waiting for my sysadmin job to be automated away. AGI, its time to deliver! I'm waiting. Should have happened yesterday?

AGI by 2030 is not a reach statement at all anymore.

The LLM's we have today weren't supposed to show up until 2030 at the earliest and 2050 more realistically. If you go back 10 years and read what people were writing about AI progress, you will find that they were _completely_ off the mark. It's prudent to assume a very liberal timeline for AI progress, based off whats been happening now.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#132

Post by axus »

frabjoused wrote: post #119
kgabis wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I imagine it will happen when heatwaves and droughts start to be a serious issue.

Isn’t the whole issue that the real action will be too late given our currently technology?

And yet the comment you are replying to is probably the case.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#133

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

randomopining wrote: post #106
c048 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'Mother' Gaia will wipe all complex life from this planet with 1 to 1.5 Billion years if her 'undisciplined' puppies don't find a way to leave this ball of dirt. She's also got quite a lead with killing off 99.99999% of all species that ever lived, when compared to us.

You think leaving earth is the solution? The only place we've evolved to survive on.

And if we can't manage the climate challenges here, how are we going to do it on Mars or during interstellar travel?

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#134

Post by morkalork »

blueflow wrote: post #95

The comments section is an trash fire. Some people seem to be more than ready for the apocalypse to actually happen. What a sad state of affairs.

It's kinda like learned helplessness and depression have infiltrated the human condition. But why wouldn't it? We're not that dumb, we see what's happening around us. It's mad.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#135

Post by TeMPOraL »

swader999 wrote: post #78
api wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk of global thermonuclear war is low since it would require one of the major powers to go suicidally mad. The risk of local or regional nuclear conflict as part of a larger scale war is high.

We all work in complex systems and see first hand how fragile and error prone they are. Yet you think the risk of nuclear war is low even though the programs rely on similar types of systems?

Human-driven systems, embedded in the real world, are still inefficient enough[0] that they are much more resilient than the kind of systems we work with. At the very least, each part of the system has the ability to independently evaluate the process they're a part of, and stop it in its tracks if they think a fatal mistake is about to happen. See e.g. Stanislav Petrov and be thankful his job wasn't automated, or we'd not be here to talk about it.

--

[0] - Which, in this context, is a good thing.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#136

Post by zeckalpha »

belter wrote: post #3

We are in the multilayered race between - The risk of the rise of AGI - The risk and madness of Nuclear conflict - The risk of runaway Climate change My money is on Mother Gaia. She will brutally and swiftly discipline her puppies.

This is the polycrisis.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#137

Post by adrianN »

IMTDb wrote: post #98
toss1 wrote: post #68

Great visualization from Randall Munroe: https://xkcd.com/1732/ Literally everyone should see this. Edit: Evidently many people still do not get the point The point is that yes, climate has changed in the past, and the individual values are not the problem. The PROBLEM is that it has never changed this FAST . By orders of magnitude. Velocity changes everything. Consider just taking a sip of your coffee 1000X as fast…

The choice to start at 2000 BC is interesting, because as soon as you zoom out more, the story completely changes: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356606430/figure/fi... https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_widt... Randall chose one of the lowest point every in the history of earth as the "baseline". We are still in one of the coldest period ever for earth. The recent rise of temperature i…

The problem is not the absolute temperature change, but the rate of change.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#138

Post by admissionsguy »

AlexandrB wrote: post #49
belter wrote: post #3

We are in the multilayered race between - The risk of the rise of AGI - The risk and madness of Nuclear conflict - The risk of runaway Climate change My money is on Mother Gaia. She will brutally and swiftly discipline her puppies.

#1 is marketing hype. #2 is very real. #3 is happening and could cause #2 if wars for livable land and water resources break out.

#1 is marketing hype

#2 is a remote possibility

#3 is a non-threat

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#139

Post by adrianN »

itissid wrote: post #69

Lowest common denominator to solve all these problems is either 1. Invent super cheap and scalable energy solution. Like Fusion. We could pretty much do whatever climate solution we want. 2. MMT to achieve (1) and a combination of one of: a). Viable Climate solutions which are currently "costly" and if necessary UBI so labour and time could be freed up to implement those solutions. b). Massively subsidize nationalize…

There is no reason to believe that fusion is cheap.

Re: Fastest rate of natural carbon dioxide rise over the last 50k years

#140

Post by sharpshadow »

AlexandrB wrote: post #49
belter wrote: post #3

We are in the multilayered race between - The risk of the rise of AGI - The risk and madness of Nuclear conflict - The risk of runaway Climate change My money is on Mother Gaia. She will brutally and swiftly discipline her puppies.

#1 is marketing hype. #2 is very real. #3 is happening and could cause #2 if wars for livable land and water resources break out.

That’s a difficult one, securing livable land and water with nuclear fallout.
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