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Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

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Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#131

Post by nostrebored »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #129
nostrebored wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Housing has had a real appreciation at a rate that far outpaces real median wage increases. This is fueled partially by incentives to buy homes, but largely by speculative real estate purchases by older generations. People over the age of 35 own nearly 85% of real estate in the U.S., with people over the age of 55 owning nearly 45%. In both of these categories, ownership is extremely overrepresented and trending up.…

NIMBYs are the reason housing prices don’t seem rational. When supply can’t increase any increase in demand will cause prices to shoot up. When an area is controlled by nimbys speculation becomes easy.

But NIMBYs don’t exist to keep the quality of life high in an area — they exist as a cartel working to keep property values high.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#132

Post by spacemadness »

paulpauper wrote: post #37
toomuchtodo wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your time horizon? Sure, in 50 years, housing supply might improve. Most of us will be dead by then, but I suppose the problem solves itself.

It would seem like there is a constant tug-of-war between supply and demand. Demand grows to meet supply. There is a finite amount of housing in desirable locations. What makes certain areas desirable also makes them expensive.

It works so well many “choose” to live on the streets in shoddy tent villages.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#133

Post by wait_a_minute »

hotpotamus wrote: post #103
wait_a_minute wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are always exceptions and it’s fine if wisdom leads someone in this direction. I believe those costs will decrease in real terms with time. Note that we were also higher up discussing staying home longer precisely to facilitate more affordability for the individual, an additional 3-5 years saving and investing into career and skills will help most individuals in this area significantly if they can do it.

I don't believe costs will decrease because they never have in my lifetime, and I don't think I can be called a young adult any more. I'd be happy if they did though.

Consider the implications of advanced robotics and materials science on the cost of producing anything. The trend is an exciting reduction to $0 marginal cost. It will still take time but one can see it starting to unfold gradually already.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#134

Post by wvenable »

ozr wrote: post #124
MattPalmer1086 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Young people today eh? A refrain as old as time.

And, as we know, there are no cultural changes between generations.

Some things provably never change: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/nobody-wants-to-work-anymo...

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#135

Post by hotpotamus »

wait_a_minute wrote: post #133
hotpotamus wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't believe costs will decrease because they never have in my lifetime, and I don't think I can be called a young adult any more. I'd be happy if they did though.

Consider the implications of advanced robotics and materials science on the cost of producing anything. The trend is an exciting reduction to $0 marginal cost. It will still take time but one can see it starting to unfold gradually already.

I believe the implications are mass unemployment, but given that I've seen approximately zero progress in robotics in my adult life (I guess the robot vacuums are a bit better than my Bush-era Roomba), I suppose the burger-flippers will be employed a bit longer. I don't really know if that's a win or not. While Star Trek was indeed an interesting exploration into a post-scarcity society, the more I've grown up, the more I've realized it's just nerdy fantasy; there's little grounding in actual science there.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#136

Post by ozr »

wvenable wrote: post #134
ozr wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And, as we know, there are no cultural changes between generations.

Some things provably never change: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/nobody-wants-to-work-anymo...

This is cute, but not data. When you look at actual data, it shows that it actually has changed over time. There is a gradual rise in the labor force participation rate as more women enter the workforce, up until a peak in ~2001. It's been dropping ever since.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#137

Post by wvenable »

ozr wrote: post #136
wvenable wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some things provably never change: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/nobody-wants-to-work-anymo...

This is cute, but not data. When you look at actual data, it shows that it actually has changed over time. There is a gradual rise in the labor force participation rate as more women enter the workforce, up until a peak in ~2001. It's been dropping ever since. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Depends on which data you look at:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

That seems like very little change.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#138

Post by ozr »

wvenable wrote: post #137
ozr wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is cute, but not data. When you look at actual data, it shows that it actually has changed over time. There is a gradual rise in the labor force participation rate as more women enter the workforce, up until a peak in ~2001. It's been dropping ever since. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Depends on which data you look at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 That seems like very little change.

Excluding people 16-24 would definitely remove the vast majority of the population addressed above.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#139

Post by wvenable »

ozr wrote: post #138
wvenable wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on which data you look at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 That seems like very little change.

Excluding people 16-24 would definitely remove the vast majority of the population addressed above.

The largest drop appears to be the in 16 to 19 age group -- hardly the group trying to be independent. Outside of that group it again doesn't seem very different.

Re: Why can't today's young adults leave the nest? Blame high housing costs

#140

Post by Whoppertime »

xenonite wrote: post #92

The generation of my parents could indeed afford nice houses. Seeing this, I understood it will be worth to study hard and learn a lot, then go for a typical job. But the equation does not hold now. What carrots will the next generation learn to follow? I am afraid it will rather be the stick.

Here's an easy carrot. Percentage of food budget spent on restaurant meals vs Home Cooking. Look at some of those pie charts over time and you'll see how often our parents generation went out, or their parents generation went out for dinner
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